Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #sgtf
Most recents (6)
“When do we deploy the new variant….? “
Daily cases of #OMICRON plotted against daily #Booster vaccines administered
If you don’t believe in ‘Correlation = Causation’
Then get ready to meet
‘Occam’s Razor’
Fcuk #MattHancock and fcuk the #lockdownfiles but this is huge⬇️
Daily cases of #OMICRON plotted against daily #Booster vaccines administered
If you don’t believe in ‘Correlation = Causation’
Then get ready to meet
‘Occam’s Razor’
Fcuk #MattHancock and fcuk the #lockdownfiles but this is huge⬇️
The UK vaccine programme commenced 8th Dec. 2020
A week later, Matt Hancock declared #Alpha (Kent) as the first significant Variant of Concern VoC (🟣on📈)
After the second peak of cases appeared to roll over end of November, 2020, a third peak of cases took off mid Dec 2020
1/
A week later, Matt Hancock declared #Alpha (Kent) as the first significant Variant of Concern VoC (🟣on📈)
After the second peak of cases appeared to roll over end of November, 2020, a third peak of cases took off mid Dec 2020
1/
The #Alpha VoC was said to contain mutations within the ‘S’ gene which meant the S gene could not be detected in the PCR #SGTF
This changed the way PCR ‘positives’ would be declared & with it, increased the proportion of positive results declared
Increased false positive?
2/
This changed the way PCR ‘positives’ would be declared & with it, increased the proportion of positive results declared
Increased false positive?
2/
Daily 🇬🇧UK #COVID19 case numbers jumped from 15,000 pre 8th December, to a then record 75,000 daily ‘cases’ by end of December 2020
A large proportion of those positives were in the JCVI priority groups 1&2
Were the vaccines making people more susceptible to testing +ve?
3/
A large proportion of those positives were in the JCVI priority groups 1&2
Were the vaccines making people more susceptible to testing +ve?
3/
Status of the latest #COVID19 Wave in #NewYork #BellwetherState
NY just uploaded 425 sequences - had to update charts!
Top circulating variants - BA.5.2.1 (20%), BA.4.6 (15%)
Proportion of BQ* lineages are increasing
BQ.1* (2.84%) & BQ.1.1* (1.00%)👀
NY just uploaded 425 sequences - had to update charts!
Top circulating variants - BA.5.2.1 (20%), BA.4.6 (15%)
Proportion of BQ* lineages are increasing
BQ.1* (2.84%) & BQ.1.1* (1.00%)👀
BQ.1.1 (aka #Cerberus) is able to evade all available mAb therapeutics including #Evusheld and #Bebtelovimab.
Bivalent boosters (OG/Omicron.BA.5) will potentially protect the boosted from getting severe disease.
Please get #boosted ASAP!
Bivalent boosters (OG/Omicron.BA.5) will potentially protect the boosted from getting severe disease.
Please get #boosted ASAP!
We may have to switch to #SequenceToTreat from #TestToTreat soon...
mAbs work well against BA.2.3.20
#Bebtelovimab works well against most BA.2.75* without spike K444 mutations
None of the mAb currently authorized by @US_FDA will work against BQ.1. lineage
mAbs work well against BA.2.3.20
#Bebtelovimab works well against most BA.2.75* without spike K444 mutations
None of the mAb currently authorized by @US_FDA will work against BQ.1. lineage
Greater than Titan!
Seems like BA.2.75 has the potential to outcompete BA.5*/BA.4* and other circulating BA.2 lineages
Early days but growth advantage will be clear in a couple of weeks.
Seems like BA.2.75 has the potential to outcompete BA.5*/BA.4* and other circulating BA.2 lineages
Early days but growth advantage will be clear in a couple of weeks.
#HowItStartedHowItsGoing
Der Anteil #vermeintlichesAlpha hat sich in #Niedersachsen noch einmal verdoppelt - liegt jetzt 20mal so hoch wieBundesschnitt.. Bei Gesamtgenomsequenzierungen wurde weiterhin Deutschlandweit kein #Alpha gefunden
➡️#Omicron Verdachtsfälle. #SGTF
Mini-🧵
Der Anteil #vermeintlichesAlpha hat sich in #Niedersachsen noch einmal verdoppelt - liegt jetzt 20mal so hoch wieBundesschnitt.. Bei Gesamtgenomsequenzierungen wurde weiterhin Deutschlandweit kein #Alpha gefunden
➡️#Omicron Verdachtsfälle. #SGTF
Mini-🧵
2/
Auch das @rki_de erläutert im Wochenbericht die Deletion im S-Gen und fordert dazu auf, diese (⏫) #Omicron Verdachtsfälle zu #sequenzieren.
Also @NdsLandesReg @Daniela_Behrens @MpStephanWeil : Worauf noch warten??
PS: Später wird es heißen "Days since >1 %", schon nah dran.
Auch das @rki_de erläutert im Wochenbericht die Deletion im S-Gen und fordert dazu auf, diese (⏫) #Omicron Verdachtsfälle zu #sequenzieren.
Also @NdsLandesReg @Daniela_Behrens @MpStephanWeil : Worauf noch warten??
PS: Später wird es heißen "Days since >1 %", schon nah dran.
3/
Tabelle #VermeintlichesAlpha für alle Bundesländer:
Erneut: Daten aus den VOC_VOI_Tabellen vom 19.08. bis 02.12.21 zusammengetragen. #Omicron #SGTF
Orange wieder: Denkwürdige Veränderungen, vgl. Ursprünglicher Thread + 2.Bild.
(rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… )
Tabelle #VermeintlichesAlpha für alle Bundesländer:
Erneut: Daten aus den VOC_VOI_Tabellen vom 19.08. bis 02.12.21 zusammengetragen. #Omicron #SGTF
Orange wieder: Denkwürdige Veränderungen, vgl. Ursprünglicher Thread + 2.Bild.
(rki.de/DE/Content/Inf… )
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧵 on our latest work looking at #step4 🪜👩💻 and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines 💉
To capture changes in behaviour (➡️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 🍀 We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️
