Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #sgtf

Most recents (6)

“When do we deploy the new variant….? “

Daily cases of #OMICRON plotted against daily #Booster vaccines administered

If you don’t believe in ‘Correlation = Causation’

Then get ready to meet

‘Occam’s Razor’

Fcuk #MattHancock and fcuk the #lockdownfiles but this is huge⬇️ Image
England 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿

1st sSeptember 2021 - 31st March 2022

32,000,000 doses of #COVID19 Booster vaccine administered

12,000,000 cases of COVID19 #OMICRON reported

Was omicron a sales pitch for the booster ?

Did the booster sees the positives ?

2/ Image
At the time of the #OMICRON wave is was clear that the vaccinated - and recently boosted - were driving infection rates

By the end of March 2022, 85% of ‘Cases’ were in the vaccinated, +70% #Boosted

The U.K. HSA would then stop publishing the data by vaccination status …. ImageImageImage
Read 8 tweets
The UK vaccine programme commenced 8th Dec. 2020

A week later, Matt Hancock declared #Alpha (Kent) as the first significant Variant of Concern VoC (🟣on📈)

After the second peak of cases appeared to roll over end of November, 2020, a third peak of cases took off mid Dec 2020
The #Alpha VoC was said to contain mutations within the ‘S’ gene which meant the S gene could not be detected in the PCR #SGTF

This changed the way PCR ‘positives’ would be declared & with it, increased the proportion of positive results declared

Increased false positive?

Daily 🇬🇧UK #COVID19 case numbers jumped from 15,000 pre 8th December, to a then record 75,000 daily ‘cases’ by end of December 2020

A large proportion of those positives were in the JCVI priority groups 1&2

Were the vaccines making people more susceptible to testing +ve?

Read 15 tweets
Status of the latest #COVID19 Wave in #NewYork #BellwetherState

NY just uploaded 425 sequences - had to update charts!

Top circulating variants - BA.5.2.1 (20%), BA.4.6 (15%)

Proportion of BQ* lineages are increasing
BQ.1* (2.84%) & BQ.1.1* (1.00%)👀 ImageImage
BQ.1.1 (aka #Cerberus) is able to evade all available mAb therapeutics including #Evusheld and #Bebtelovimab.

Bivalent boosters (OG/Omicron.BA.5) will potentially protect the boosted from getting severe disease.

Please get #boosted ASAP! Image
We may have to switch to #SequenceToTreat from #TestToTreat soon...

mAbs work well against BA.2.3.20

#Bebtelovimab works well against most BA.2.75* without spike K444 mutations

None of the mAb currently authorized by @US_FDA will work against BQ.1. lineage
Read 4 tweets
Greater than Titan!

Seems like BA.2.75 has the potential to outcompete BA.5*/BA.4* and other circulating BA.2 lineages

Early days but growth advantage will be clear in a couple of weeks.
Growth advantage estimates BA.2.75 vs BA.5*:…
Growth advantage estimates BA.2.75 vs BA.2.38*:…
Read 7 tweets
Der Anteil #vermeintlichesAlpha hat sich in #Niedersachsen noch einmal verdoppelt - liegt jetzt 20mal so hoch wieBundesschnitt.. Bei Gesamtgenomsequenzierungen wurde weiterhin Deutschlandweit kein #Alpha gefunden
➡️#Omicron Verdachtsfälle. #SGTF
Mini-🧵 Image
Auch das @rki_de erläutert im Wochenbericht die Deletion im S-Gen und fordert dazu auf, diese (⏫) #Omicron Verdachtsfälle zu #sequenzieren.
Also @NdsLandesReg @Daniela_Behrens @MpStephanWeil : Worauf noch warten??
PS: Später wird es heißen "Days since >1 %", schon nah dran. Image
Tabelle #VermeintlichesAlpha für alle Bundesländer:
Erneut: Daten aus den VOC_VOI_Tabellen vom 19.08. bis 02.12.21 zusammengetragen. #Omicron #SGTF
Orange wieder: Denkwürdige Veränderungen, vgl. Ursprünglicher Thread + 2.Bild.
(… ) ImageImage
Read 13 tweets
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧵 on our latest work looking at #step4 🪜👩‍💻 and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way A photograph of the West pier and Brighton beach with low ti
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines 💉 An illustration of the age-structured compartmental transmis
To capture changes in behaviour (➡️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 🍀 We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️ Figures showing google mobility data between January 2020 an
Read 11 tweets

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