Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #shutdownNYC
Most recents (7)
(1/) Five days ago I forecast that NYC’s hospitals would be at capacity with #coronavirus cases by Mar 30. I was wrong. New data suggest that #NYC’s hospitals will reach capacity of approx. 3,000 cases by Mar 24. #shutdownNYC
medium.com/@donnellymjd/c…
medium.com/@donnellymjd/c…
(2/) While there is now nothing we can do to prevent reaching capacity short of immediately adding beds, we can prevent additional deaths and hospitalizations by fully shutting down NYC except for absolutely essential services, like Italy’s current restrictions.
(3/) Why was the first forecast wrong by a few days? Detection rate. In the prior worst case scenario, we assumed an overall detection rate of 18%, which implied fewer undetected cases. New hospitalization data imply an estimated detection rate of just 5.6% today. 
NYC has 2.5% of the U.S. population
We have 26.5% of the total confirmed #covid19 cases in the nation.
We are the new epicenter.
We are pleading for more support from the federal gov't. We need nat'l production of medical equipment and supplies and we need it NOW.
We have 26.5% of the total confirmed #covid19 cases in the nation.
We are the new epicenter.
We are pleading for more support from the federal gov't. We need nat'l production of medical equipment and supplies and we need it NOW.
As of 6pm yesterday we are up to *1,871* cases--and tragically 11 fatalities.
This is not all on the feds. It's also on us. NYC is still far to bustling.
Our window for action is closing. We urgently need to enact a "shelter in place" order, following the lead of San Francisco.
It's time to #ShutdownNYC.
Our window for action is closing. We urgently need to enact a "shelter in place" order, following the lead of San Francisco.
It's time to #ShutdownNYC.
OK, even while we continue to push & plan for #shutdownNYC, I'm starting to have a new concern that I want to share:
In a few days, testing will start to be more broadly available. Many people will want to rush to it.
But that will be a big mistake. Here's why. THREAD
In a few days, testing will start to be more broadly available. Many people will want to rush to it.
But that will be a big mistake. Here's why. THREAD
Unless you or your loved one is urgently sick & need hospitalization, you should stay home.
Most people who have COVID-19 need to stay at home, like you would with a flu, drink fluids, rest, and get better.
That’s what they'd tell you at the testing center.
Most people who have COVID-19 need to stay at home, like you would with a flu, drink fluids, rest, and get better.
That’s what they'd tell you at the testing center.
If many people flood the testing centers, some who are infected, and some who are not, we’ll be creating petri dishes for sharing the virus.
NYC need to cancel everything. Everyone needs to start social distancing now. If it feels too early, it's the right time. If we wait, it will be too late. #shutdownNYC #COVIDー19
NYC is the most densely populated urban area in the country. The first NY case was on March 2. Two weeks later, we have 613 confirmed cases. I plotted the number of current NY cases by day to see the trend. Data from @BNONews
An exponential growth equation provides the best fit for the data.
THREAD: Everyone is talking how S Korea handled Coronavirus well.
-Their first known case was a day BEFORE the US.
- Despite not doing what SK did, US severity cases (critically ill + dead) as of March 15 is smaller relatively speaking. (US population is 6.5 X the size of SK).
-Their first known case was a day BEFORE the US.
- Despite not doing what SK did, US severity cases (critically ill + dead) as of March 15 is smaller relatively speaking. (US population is 6.5 X the size of SK).
2/
For all the talk of South Korea TESTING TESTING TESTING, they have tested only 251,940 people as of Sat March 15 (not counting 17K tests with no results in). In a country of 51 million people that's not even half of a percent!
It's not so much testing as headlines suggest.
For all the talk of South Korea TESTING TESTING TESTING, they have tested only 251,940 people as of Sat March 15 (not counting 17K tests with no results in). In a country of 51 million people that's not even half of a percent!
It's not so much testing as headlines suggest.
3/
Of the completed tests in South Korea, 96.7% test negative. They have no Coronavirus.
- 75 people died. That's 0.91% of cases. But they tested only a small portion of their population so how many cases are missing (and the death rate is thus maybe lower)?
Pls keep reading.
Of the completed tests in South Korea, 96.7% test negative. They have no Coronavirus.
- 75 people died. That's 0.91% of cases. But they tested only a small portion of their population so how many cases are missing (and the death rate is thus maybe lower)?
Pls keep reading.
I just want to make this clear. We are going to have to #shutdownNYC in the coming days, just like they are doing in Spain and France today. @NYCMayor @NYGovCuomo We have two options-Option 1) We can shut down in an orderly, rational way starting tomorrow morning that accounts 1/
For how to take care of our most vulnerable people, the elderly, the sick at home, children who need school meals, those on fixed income who rely on #SNAP & food pantries, first responders, essential workers, healthcare workers and their families. This will be a historic & G-d 2/
Willing Successful civic #calltoactionNYC like we did after 9/11 and Sandy-we can do that because we’ve done it before. Option 2) we wait around and deny the inevitable. That means we shut down amid chaos, overrun hospitals, emergency departments who can’t take any more 3/
The US needs a #COVID19LockdownNow to protect public health. We must must follow the lead of China, Italy, and Spain and halt this pandemic in its tracks.
medium.com/@Andrew.Goldst…
medium.com/@Andrew.Goldst…
To do this morally, we must implement:
– logistical support to ensure those in isolation have basic needs met, especially for those most vulnerable AKA #HumaneIsolation
– a moratorium on rent and mortgage
– a people's bailout AKA #EmergencyUBI
– logistical support to ensure those in isolation have basic needs met, especially for those most vulnerable AKA #HumaneIsolation
– a moratorium on rent and mortgage
– a people's bailout AKA #EmergencyUBI
And in the era of rising ethnoreligious fascism globally, we must tread carefully to protect public health, democracy, and freedom. This might mean having it be time-limited and brief (e.g. 10 days).
