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1/ Operational situation update/ #russian_invasion in #Ukraine on December 18, 2022
Special failed war of #RussianArmy is still on its way..
On the #Ukraine side of things Some fronts line are now "stabilized" but on other areas the Ru are having some minor success.
#UkraineMap
Special failed war of #RussianArmy is still on its way..
On the #Ukraine side of things Some fronts line are now "stabilized" but on other areas the Ru are having some minor success.
#UkraineMap
Back from travel, let's get to reporting on what doesn't get reporting. This morning, heavy #Russian shelling south of the Siverskyi in #Bohorodychne & #Svyatogorsk indicate fast advance on this sector. By the thermal footprint history, it appears RU now controls or is near
controlling Svyatogorsk (on the north bank), and is now attacking the south bank both here, and further west at Bohordychne. Both of these towns have river crossings that were standing as of our last information. Sat images from the 31st of May indicate the eastern bridge was
intact and the western one was likely standing. The UA forces may have blown them since (as they often do before retreating), but it seems likely that they did not as Russia is attempting to cross south at these positions. The strategic value is important. Earlier in the conflict
1/ Update infos for general informations about both #Ukraine -nians losses and #Russian ones, of the day (image below) and week (Excel tab in following tweets)
- Pertes Russes estimées et tableaux recap de la semaine. (mini thread)
- Pertes Russes estimées et tableaux recap de la semaine. (mini thread)
2/ on notera que j'ai mis à jour les tab aussi pour les "assertions" russes... qui sont de l'ordre du grand délire, mais bon... je fais ça "bien". (NB les prisonniers Russes ne sont pas à jour et ceux prétendus UKr sont non confirmés par @UNHCR ou @CroixRouge )
3/ tableau perso recap. (for the new comers but i've explained a lot about this specific "mind game" here - tableau d'attrition & potential limits) i'll put a link of a short explanation if needed - this is only on the current situation/nb troops involved not all Ru potential).
Pertes #Russes estimées en #Ukraine
on passe la barre des 30k tués (même à 10% près cela reste cela reste symbolique - 3 mois de guerre totale, du tres classique et cela induit plus ds ts les cas 60k/70k troupes formés et "compétentes" HS.)
demain les tableaux de stats MAJ.
on passe la barre des 30k tués (même à 10% près cela reste cela reste symbolique - 3 mois de guerre totale, du tres classique et cela induit plus ds ts les cas 60k/70k troupes formés et "compétentes" HS.)
demain les tableaux de stats MAJ.
2/ Rapport du jour : Les frappes aériennes/missiles RU se sont poursuivies hier et pendant toute la nuit, principalement dans l'Est et le S-E du pays. Karkiv a encore été visé et touché uniquement pour que la vie n'y reprenne ps son cours et pour que les populations fuient
3/ (tirs directs de Belgorod qu'il faudra bien penser à "traiter" si on veut que cela s'arrête), et également tirs de missiles depuis la mer sur #Mykholaiv (il resterait donc bien des variantes #Kalibr ss marin & defenses cotières etc)
L'activité aérienne RU a également augmenté
L'activité aérienne RU a également augmenté
Now that #Popasna has fallen & the #Siverskyi Donets has been crossed, #Russia is poised to finish the first dramatic encirclement of the war. Any UA troops not falling back to at least the Bakhmut-Siversk line & better the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk-Toretsk line will be surrounded.
They cannot withdraw too fast, & without holding the line because then the front will collapse into a rout, as the RU forces press from the east. Remains to be seen if we see a collapse or an orderly withdrawal but question first is which route #Russia will take?
In general it will continue to take the path of least resistance. It will bypass major roads, fortifications & cities when possible. However it will also be bound by roads and the rail lines in its strategy not only for its own supply but also to cut it off from the #Ukrainians.
#war #Kyiv #Ukraine #Russia Collecting all reports thread; Ukraine's operational command says "cruise and ballistic missile strikes are underway at the control centres in Kyiv" from @lukeharding1968 Friends report explosions in #Kyiv, #Odessa #Kharkiv #Mykolaev thread, add info
Targets include airfields and military headquarters, operational command says
"Distant crumps - soft explosions - reported from west Kyiv, towards the airport. Not Cruise missiles, i think, but sounds like an attack on the airport." @JohnSweeney
