Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #socy126
Most recents (4)
Let’s talk about the “Swiss cheese model” of combatting the COVID-19 pandemic. This is a classic conceptualization of how to cope with hazards, and it powerfully illustrates several features of what we are facing in the pandemic. #SwissCheeseModel (Image h/t @MackayIM) 1/ 
What is required to stop the spread of a pathogen like SARS-CoV-2 is achieving some kind of (minimum) threshold level of response sufficient to achieve a deflection in the trajectory of the epidemic, to bring it under control. 2/
A combination of “contact reduction” interventions (eg, school closures, gathering bans) and “transmission reduction” interventions (eg, handwashing, masking) is required. These are “non-pharmaceutical interventions” (NPI), in contrast to things like medicines and vaccines. 3/
Nice 2006 @nature paper evaluating influenza prevention and containment strategies, incl. antiviral, vaccine, & non-pharmaceutical measures (case isolation, household quarantine, school or workplace closure, restrictions on travel). #socy126 #COVID19 doi.org/10.1038/nature… 1/
Restricting importation of cases (e.g., by stopping flights) even at a rate of 90%, 99%, or 99.9%, if implemented on day 30 of a pandemic (which is when we might become aware), can only delay epidemic in USA by 10-42 days (not stop it). 2/
Delay in peak of US pandemic caused by internal travel restrictions for high (red) & moderate (blue) transmissibility. All policies start after 50 cases have been diagnosed. AC: all airports in the United States are closed to internal traffic. Again we only buy ~40 day delay. 3/
I think it’s likely that the COVID-19 epidemic could be as severe as to claim 35,000 lives in the USA this year. It could be less severe, of course! Or more. It’s still hard to say. 1/
But I’m sensing some complacency about this possibility. People say, “more people die of (regular) flu.” Well, ~36,000 die of flu, that’s true. But flu is a top-ten killer. So, with COVID-19, we would be adding a new major (albeit not wholly independent) killer to our country. 2/
Let me put it this way: motor vehicle accidents kill 35,000 Americans per year. If we could miraculously *stop* those deaths (we try!), we’d be rightly pleased. So *adding* so many COVID-19 deaths should alarm us. It’s a huge number of deaths, worthy of our concern. #socy126 3/
I think that @ATabarrok is quite right in this fascinating and trenchant post about whether any random sod today is richer than Julius Caesar, or whether any random sod in 500 years will be richer than @JeffBezos (because he could fly to Mars then). marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolu… 1/
But also highly pertinent to this conversation is the issue of relative wealth & not just absolute wealth (as in Caesar-sod contrast). As @AmartyaSen_Econ
& others (& I) have argued, wealth on an absolute scale can translate into wealth on a relative scale of "capabilities." 2/
& others (& I) have argued, wealth on an absolute scale can translate into wealth on a relative scale of "capabilities." 2/
Being on top has advantages regardless of absolute wealth. So, for instance, we see that monarchs in Europe have lived long lives for hundreds of years, even though they were poorer than monarchs today. Being on top made them feel great, and gave them longer life. 3/
