Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #stalemate

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[ threadūüßĶ]

Is a protracted #stalemate burgeoning in Libya?

PM #Bashagha took his oath in Tobruk a month ago‚ÄĒ& he still hasn‚Äôt swept into office or begun governing.

He himself told the media about the physical act of #entering Tripoli ‚Äúw/in days‚ÄĚ, but that hasn‚Äôt happened yet.
Bashagha & his ministers entering Tripoli soon is w/in the realm of the possible.

But the thing is, That won’t necessarily be enough to discard Dabaiba.

I.e., entering Tripoli won’t necessarily put an end to the current crisis.

A slew of profound issues are still outstanding.
A big chunk of opinion & sentiment in both Tripoli & Misrata remains skeptical about Bashagha.

Latter has been making a bit of progress but there’s still a gap.

Plus, the passage of time alone isn’t doing all that work for free, *no matter* how isolated & weak Dabaiba looks.
Read 10 tweets
1) This article represents the predominant view of military analysts of Russia's invasion of #Ukraine: a #STALEMATE, likely to last for months absent a negotiated settlement. It's also one of the best summaries of the military situations I've seen.
2) Of course circumstances could change, and the Russians could find a way to win. At the same time, it's also possible that the Russian force could collapse, and the Ukrainians could defeat them. But these are less likely scenarios than a long-term stalemate. #UkraineInvasion
3) That said, military analysis of this war has fallen short since the get-go. Almost all the "experts" predicted a quick victory for the Russians, but they were thoroughly wrong. #UkraineInvasion
Read 5 tweets
#BIN Yo voy a resumir una nota en #ALNav√≠o, con la "nueva" posici√≥n de Europa y Josep Borrell, canciller de Espa√Īa y nuevo alto representante de pol√≠tica exterior de la #Uni√≥nEuropea. Esto no le gustar√° ni a Guaid√≥, ni a papa Leopoldo ni a los imb√©ciles. Reclamen a Borrell...
#BIN Me parece que, en este momento, luego de un a√Īo de estancamiento #stalemate y del estrepitoso fracaso del "fen√≥meno" Guaid√≥, casi todos los pa√≠ses europeos (o el bloque) est√°n reconsiderando su posici√≥n, sobre todo por lo hecho por Trump, a posteriori y por el #Brexit...
#BIN 1. Como alto representante de pol√≠tica exterior de #UE, Borrell ratifica la posici√≥n que tuvo como canciller de Espa√Īa: no reconocer a Guaid√≥ y oponerse, ahora con m√°s raz√≥n, a las sanciones de Trump. Esto no es de extra√Īar, Repsol (Espa√Īa), junto a Rosneft , desafi√≥ a Trump
Read 17 tweets
#BIN La pregunta del d√≠a: ¬ŅA qui√©n debe ser leal y con qui√©n puede ser traidor un militar? ¬ŅCon un dictador o con la Constituci√≥n y el pa√≠s?
Yo quiero aprovechar esa pregunta para desarrollar un peque√Īo hilo con elucubraciones propias, a las que tengo derecho. Aviso a los pendejos que solo esperan predicciones que no las hago, no tengo ese poder y, si lo tuviera, no las har√≠a gratuitas. Solo uso mi libertad y an√°lisis
#BIN Cuando digo #elucubraciones, no digo habladera de pendejadas, sino hipótesis y reflexiones mías, producto de mi meditación. Quizás no gusten a las "románticas" de las políticas, prefiero ser honesto conmigo mismo y auténtico en mis análisis...
Read 18 tweets

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