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A simple understanding of the slowdown that has gripped us since 2015 (we are discounting all growth numbers put out) #EconomicSlowdown
Demographics bite–India’s Unemployment rate has spiked from 3.5% in 2010 to over 6% in 2018 : some estimates put this no. At over 9% for 2019
Demographics bite–India’s Unemployment rate has spiked from 3.5% in 2010 to over 6% in 2018 : some estimates put this no. At over 9% for 2019
Gross Domestic Savings rate as a % of GDP has fallen from 34% in 2010 to 29% in 2018 – FYI we grew from 22% in 1991 to 26% in 1995 and from 28% in 2003 to 34% in 2010 (the so called boom years)
Gross Investment has fallen from a high of 41% of GDP in 2012 to 32% in FY 18
Gross Investment has fallen from a high of 41% of GDP in 2012 to 32% in FY 18
Subsidies remained flat during 2014 – 2018 (marginal increases ) compared to a near 6X increase between 2005 – 13 (putting more money in the hands of the consumer).
STAGFLATION in the Rural Economy between 2014-2019 did not help
STAGFLATION in the Rural Economy between 2014-2019 did not help
On the newly-renationalized (✊😊💯👍!) East Coast rail, heading home to York after a very stimulating day at the @UKLabour #StateOfTheEconomy conference, it seemed like a good moment to reflect on this week's @TheEconomist piece on 'Corbynomics' (THREAD)
economist.com/britain/2018/0…
economist.com/britain/2018/0…
The first thing to say is that @duncanrobinson & @econcallum are to be congratulated on a serious piece of analysis, which avoids the parade of dismal, lazy clichés that we see in so many other publications. Serious political journalism shouldn't be so rare, but it's good to see!
There's a useful analytic frame in dividing Labour's political economy thinking into fiscal policy, monetary policy, and structural reforms. And it's right to say that the third of these will actually be the most significant.
