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🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮 💰

Global Macro Review
5/29/2022

1/9

🐻 market rallies are wicked, like a 🕷 luring the 🪰 into her 🕸

Sentiment surveys do not tell the full story; options pricing does with $SPY IVOL/RVOL at -40 with the ETF +6.6% in 6 days, right into the 😬 of #QT
1a/9

Indeed, #complacency reigns supreme

But on 6/01, the FOMC will begin to 🎬 the balance sheet by 47.5B per month

💦 is already ↘️ -50B from 4/13/22 high as operation 👊🥣 removal gets under way

Chart: Federal Reserve Balance Sheet 5/25/22
2/9

Big winners on the week, vol 🌊 sellers took advantage

$VIX 25.72 -371 BPS
$VXN 32.00 -418 BPS
$RVX 30.76 -430 BPS
$VSTOXX 25.66 -300 BPS
$VXEEM 24.72 -233 BPS

Chart: $VVIX - the vol of vol fell to a pre-pandemic low
Read 18 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
5/15/2022

1/10

30 Vol and strong $USD 💣 around the 🌍 with #crypto 💥 and $GOLD breaking Trend (T)

Bond ♉️s finally caught a 🗡️, but equity ♉️s - not so much, though the $DAX, $CAC and $SSEC diverged from $SPX

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/10

Equity vol came in for a second week but remains 🛗

$VIX 28.87 with Trend (T) @ 27.75
$VXN 37.71
$RVX 35.66
$VSOTXX 29.11
$VXEEM 28.52

Chart: $VIX - positive flows from weekly #OPEX pushed $SPX 2.4% on Friday.
3/10

Were it not for positive #OPEX flows, 🇺🇸 equity prices would have been worse by 2-3% on the week

$SPX 2.4% (w) -8.95% (T)
$IWM -2.45% (w) -11.6% (T)
$COMPQ -2.8% (w) -14.4% (T)

Chart: $COMPQ 🔨 is -11.6% over (t) duration = 1-month
Read 17 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮
Global Macro Review - 4/10/2022

1/11

The 💦🍋 has begun as the #FOMC drains the 👊🥣

And they are coming after YOU dear investor

"'The Fed needs to 'inflict more losses' on the stock market in order to rein in soaring inflation.’”

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11

Realizing the Fed bid is no more, bonds headed for the ⛰️⛰️

10/2s steepened ↗️ to 18.6 BPS from #inversion the week earlier

MOVE 125.96 🛗🔺

Chart: $TNX with a new cycle high 2.72% - there’s no reason this cannot go to 5-6%
3/11

Bond ETFs go 'no bid' as the 🐻🐻 continue to roam

$TLT -5.5% (w) -12.05% (T) = 3 mos
$BNDD -5.45% (w) -2.2% (T)
$LQD -3.2% (w) -9.65% (T)
$HYG -2.1% (w) -6.55% (T)
$TIP -1.2% (w) -3.65% (T)
$IVOL +1.6% (w) -3.75% (T) ⬅️

Chart: Despite #inflation, $TIP no place to hide
Read 17 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 03/13/22

1/11

Focus on what’s working - long #inflation 🛢, #vol 🌊, and long USD 💵

Nothing says these will continue to work, given the geopolitical risk 💥☮️

But, what choice do you have? Fade it?

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11

Metals ↔️ on the week but ♉️ -
giving you opportunity long side

$COPPER -6.3%
$PLAT -2.55%
$GOLD +0.95%
$SILVER +1.45%

Chart: $SILVER +11.95% t, +17.85% T, vol 53 (3.3%)🔻
3/11

Hydrocarbons ♉️ pulled back sharply = more opportunity long 🛢⛽️

$GASO -7.35%
$NATGAS -6.0%
$WTIC -5.5%
$BRENT -4.2%

Chart: $DBC +12.28% t, +27.75% (T), vol 50 (3.1%) is over extended but a lower vol way to play commodities
Read 11 tweets
Hello 🐫 day!

And what a classic 🐫 day it is!
First equity 🐻 get 🐫 along with CRB ♉️
And then…

Let's dig into the 🧮!
Asia closed ↔️

$NIKK 24718 -0.3%
$SSEC 3256 -1.15% ⬅️
$TWII 17015 +1.15% ⬅️
$HSI 20628 -0.65%
$KOSPI closed for 🗳️
$IDX 6864 +0.75%

Australia ↗️
$ASX 7053 +1.05%

India ↗️
$BSE 54647 +2.05%
Europe with a 🐻 market 🚀🚀

$DAX 13443 +4.75%
$FTSE 7066 +1.45%
$CAC 6225 +4.4%
$AEX 679 +3.45%
$IBEX 8003 +2.8%
$MIB 23417 +4.85%
$SMI 11312 +2.3%
$MOEX closed for 💥🪆

$VSTOXX 45.56 🔻
Read 12 tweets
Hello Tuesday from 🇲🇽!

The $VIX spiked to the top end of the BB while the $SPX sank to the bottom, and for once the big #dix at 42.1 were not buyers. Is big money now the contra indicator?

Let's dig into the 🧮!
No relief for late to the 🐻🪅 Asian equities ↘️

$NIKK 24791 -1.7%
$SSEC 6980 -0.85%
$TWII 16825 -2.05%
$HSI 20766 -1.4%
$KOSPI 2622 -1.1%
$IDEX 6814 -0.8%

Australia ↘️
$ASX 6930 -0.85%

India trading ↗️
$BSE 53424 +1.1% ⬅️
Europe 🏀 ↗️ mid-morning

$DAX 12941 +0.8%
$DTSE 6963 +0.05%
$CAC 6057 +1.25%
$AEX 660 -1.35%
$IBEX 7844 +2.6%
$MIB 22694 +2.4%
$SMI 11101 -0.9%
$MOEX closed 🪆

$VSTOXX 48.24 ⬅️
implied moves of +/- 3%
Read 11 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 02/013/22

1/11

Lots of speculation about where to from here?

Sometimes, it’s as simple as looking at clear Trends

Equities 🐻
Bonds 🐻
Commodities ♉️
Volatility ♉️
USD 😑
Gold 😑

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/11

With markets closed before 🪆😱, internat’l equities ↗️ last week

$SSEC +3.0% (w) -2.15% (T)
$DAX +2.15% (w) -4.15% (T)
$HSI +1.35% (w) -1.65% (T)
$NIKK +0.95% (w) -6.55% (T)
$CAC +0.9% (w) -1.15% (T)
$KOSPI -0.9% (w) -7.45% (T)

Chart: $DAX remains 🐻 (T) = Trend = 3 mos
2a/11

Chart: $HSI now ♉️ (t) = trade = 1 mo = +2.15%
A close above 25,050 would confirm ♉️ trend
Read 24 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review - 01/30/2022

1/13

With Joe’s blessing (#inflation no good for re-election bid), JPOW is hell bent on ↗️ rates and draining 👊🥣

Backward 👀 🧮 shows 4Q21 GDP +7.0% with +7.0% price deflator and #PCE +4.8%, a 40-year high, but…
2/n

… @AtlantaFed is nowcasting Q122 GPD estimate of +0.5% ↘️

With $CRB +15.9% 🚀 off December 1 lows, the evidence of #inflation ↘️ is thin.

That said, Fed WILL tighten into a GDP slow down as fiscal spend ↘️ markedly y/y 😱

Chart: $CRB at cycle highs. 🔝?
3/13

Hydrocarbons said 🖕to the Fed

$WTIC +1.97% (w) +15.44% (m)
$BRENT +3.0% (w) +16.41% (m)
$GASO +3.67% (w) +14.41% (m)
$NATGAS +22.75% (w) +24.4% (m)

(w = week, m = month = trade = t)

Chart: Natty ripped the face off the 🐻🐻
Read 15 tweets
Hello Friday!

WTD #dispersion

$CAC -0.65%
$COMPQ -3.0%
$AORD -5.0%
$NIKK -4.9%
$KOSPI -7.75%

$VXN +7.6%

$BTC +0.55%
$AUDUSD -1.95%
$GOLD -2.0%

$NATGAS +13.25%
$PALL +12.45%
$BRENT +2.5%
$CORN+1.45%
$CRB +1.0%
$COPPER -2.2%

$TLT -0.4%

Let's dig into the early morning 🧮!
🐻 held sway in Asia with indices ↔️

$NIKK 26717 +2.1% ⬅️
$SSEC 3361 -0.95%
$TWII 17674 -0.15%
$HSI 23550 -1.1%
$KOSPI 2663 +1.85% ⬅️
$IDX 6645 +0.5%

Australia 🦘↗️
$ASX 6998 +2.2%

India ↘️
$BSE 57197 -0.15%
Europe succumbing to the 🐻↘️

$DAX 15293 -1.5%
$FTSE 7486 -0.9%
$CAC 6843 -1.15%
$AEX 742 -1.45%
$IBEX 8602 -1.15%
$FTSE 26561 -1.2%
$SMI 12083 -0.75%
$MOEX 3504 +1.4% ⬅️🪆

$VSTOXX 28.03
Read 11 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review 01/23/2022

1/13

US equity distribution ↘️ continued with a vengeance into Friday’s #OPEX

VIX ↗️ to ~30 ahead of Wednesday’s #FOMC event risk, leading to vol backwardation - a SHORT-TERM ♉️ signal

Let’s dig into the week's 🧮!
2a/13

High correlation between the UST2Y crossing the 1.0% Rubicon on Tuesday night’s open and acceleration ↘️ in US equity markets

How pathetic is it that the equity market cannot tolerate a 1% 2Y?

2b/13

Nonetheless, $TNX turned on a dime Wednesday leading to a further flattering of the yield curve with 10/s to 75.5 BPS -36% over the past 3 months (T = Trend) and 30/5s to 51.3 BPS -41% over T duration.

Chart: TNX daily
Read 14 tweets
🐻♉️↗️↘️↔️⚠️🚩🔺🔻🧮

Global Macro Review
01/16/2022

1/13

With #CPI +7.0% and #PPI +9.7% y/y, #inflation is 💪 both in the 🗞 and inthe 📈 with $WTIC +5.6% (w) and +10.78% YTD, while 🛍 -1.9% and consumer sentiment ↘️ to decade low.

Let’s dig into the 🧮!
2/13

Featured prominently on last week’s Barron’s cover, the $CRB +3.17% obliged and put in a new cycle high.

Image: Barron's cover 01/10/2022
2a/13

Commodities inflation is a problem for the “inflation rolling, #Quad4 cometh” narrative.

Chart: $CRB 💪
Read 19 tweets
Global Macro Review 07/25/2021

1/16
Hedge funds rattled by $RUT @Mike_Taylor1972 and active participants confused by the phase transition price action @PatrickCeresna

Let’s review what has been working/failing on trade and Trend durations for clues

t = 1-month, T = 3-months
2/16

Domestic equities bounced off Monday’s ↘️ day with $COMPQ +2.84%, $IWM +2.14%, and $SPX +1.96% for the week. But 👀 (t) + (T)

SPX +3.06% (t), +5.54% (T) ♉️
COMPQ +3.32% (t) +5.85% (T) ♉️
IWM -5.48% (t), -2.75% (T) 🐻 $COMPQ +2.84% and an ATH +5...
3/16

International equities a little less sanguine with $CAC +1.68% and $HSI -2.44% for the week

CAC -0.82% (t) +4.97% (T)
DAX +0.39% (t) + 2.55% (T) ♉️
SSEC -1.33% (t) +2.45% (T)
KOSPI -1.47% (t, +2.14% (T)
NIKK -5.22% (t) -5.07% (T) 🐻
HSI -6.73% (t) -6.04% (T) 🐻 $CAC +1.68% for the week an...
Read 16 tweets

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