Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #stimulus

Most recents (24)

#Duration works both ways!
#Austria's '100-year' bond, maturing in 2120, with a duration of 46 years, is down a whopping 72% since late 2020 when global yields bottomed.
short thread 1/9
This also answers the many questions about why the value of (UK) #liability-driven investment funds, used by pension funds to match the #duration of their #liabilities, has plummeted. 2/9
Theoretically, since pension fund #liabilities and #assets both drop when #yields rise - it is not called liability matching for nothing - there shouldn't be a problem, right? 3/9
Read 9 tweets
Today’s @federalreserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (#FOMC) meeting witnessed another historic 75 bps increase to policy rate levels (to a range of 3.0% to 3.25%) in an effort for the #CentralBank to manage its number one priority: fighting persistently high #inflation.
The #Fed, including in today’s meeting statement and in the Chair’s press conference, has been clearer than arguably any central bank in identifying its current goal and moving #InterestRates and #liquidity provision to achieve it.
Indeed, by moving the #Fed Funds rate for the third time in 75 bps increments we see clear evidence of a strong desire by the Committee to temper demand as a way to achieve its goal of #price moderation.
Read 13 tweets
The #Recession is here. This special report will explain what’s behind the crisis and how to protect yourself.

Get this in-depth EXCLUSIVE report delivered to your home for FREE when you sign up for The Epoch Times for Just $1 for 2-months.

👉epochtim.es/srrecession Image
🇺🇸 1 in 6 US households are unable to pay their utility bills.

The #Recession is here.

Let’s dive into 2 of the main reasons why the US economy is facing it, and how to protect yourself.

(Thread 👇)
Never before in history have there been so many jobs despite a slowing economy.

Data show that a significant percentage of households are enduring a #CostOfLivingCrisis:

61% of Americans were living paycheck to paycheck in June 2022, up from 55% a year ago.
Read 12 tweets
Many have asked us to step in to clarify what's really going on across #China's faltering economy.

As @michaelxpettis notes, the critical issue is "stimulus" vs loan demand.

But @ChinaBeigeBook data over past 6+ mos show there is much more here than meets the eye.
*THREAD*
1/
For virtually all of 2021, credit was extremely tight, w/uptake at corporates at, or hovering near, all-time @ChinaBeigeBook lows. Combination of constricted [govt dictated] supply & putrid levels of loan demand.
2/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Very end of '21 we saw a curious change in the data.

While borrowing remained tight & firms STILL not applying for new loans, our pent-up loan demand gauges started to rise. 4 straight months into April, loan demand rose...meaningfully.
3/
Read 10 tweets
DoubleLine founder and CEO Jeffrey Gundlach presents:

Just Markets 2022 - I Feel Young Again

Today at 1:15pm PT, register here: event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?…

#macro #markets #stocks #FX #bonds #commodities #rates #inflation #Fed #QE #bitcoin

Live recap thread⬇️
Jeffrey Gundlach: 2021 might end up running 7% year on the CPI

#inflation #QE #Powell #fed #hikes #rates
Jeffrey Gundlach: Low interest rates coupled with inflation generating negative interest rate.

#JustMarkets2022 #CPI #QE #Fed
Read 48 tweets
Winter is (almost) here! Time for another energy crisis thread. Record power prices, coal and natural gas shortages (and even ration cards!), what else will unfold? 🧵
And Poland has responded to surging prices by cutting energy taxes
Read 18 tweets
Thanks to @steve_sedgwick & @cnbcKaren for having me on #CNBC #SquawkBox this AM.

What did we discuss? Well, #inflation of course!

I prepared some slides for the show which I'm happy to present in this thread.
1/n
#macro #Fed #Yellen #JeromePowell #bankofengland #QE
Are people in denial or is the #centralbank money flood just drowning all the signals?
2/n
#inflation
#Commodities, #freight, #carbon - and a whole lot besides - sure do cost a lot more, these days.
3/n
Read 14 tweets
The $DXY? Medium-term #Bullish, Long-term #bearish
1/
1) Medium Term: #Fed Hawkish, #ECB Dovish
As the Federal Reserve begins discussing tapering, the ECB is still providing stimulus. A hawkish Fed is confirming a stronger economy while the ECB confirming weakness.
2) Medium Term: Treasury General Account Drawdown Largely Over
$300mm remaining with $750bn already done, causing this downward pressure on the $DXY to wane
Read 8 tweets
Post #Stimulus of Rs 30 lakh Cr last year,akin to 15% of GDP, Finance Minister announced slew of measures to ease stress on #Covid affected sectors,including Loan Guarantee Scheme of Rs 1.1 lakh Cr

#ECLGS amount hiked from Rs 3 lakh Cr,to 4.5 lakh Cr 💪

@narendramodi govt,cares
Credit Guarantee Scheme is an excellent measure to help Micro Lending Institutions,with interest rate on loans from banks capped at #MCLR+2% only

Focus on new lending rather than repayment of old loans,a big step

This is #AatmaNirbharBharat 4.0 by @narendramodi govt💪

#Economy
Besides provision of 2.3 lakh Cr for #Health sector in Union Budget 2021-22,Rs 35000Cr towards spend on #Covid,#NirmalaSitharaman again announced Rs50000Cr for Health Sector&Rs60000Cr for other sectors,with interest rate capped at 8.25%,which bodes well

@narendramodi govt cares
Read 3 tweets
Generally speaking #infrastructure is defined as the basic #physical systems of any #business, #region, or that of any #nation... including #transportation systems, #communication #networks, #sewage, #water supply & #electrical #grid systems. #BuildBackBetter #logistics #stimulus
Various types of #infrastructure #construction based projects typically drive the bulk of conversations amongst those of us vested in the arduous process of "progress" moving forward.
#Highway improvement, #street & #road maintenance & #bridge building commonly take center stage.
Mass #transit, #airport & #airways, #municipal #WaterSupply, #waste management along with waste #Water #management,
#power generation & #transmission, #HazardousWaste removal & #storage ALL must be considered while addressing basic underlying societal frameworks. #sustainability
Read 7 tweets
#RealInvestmentReport is out!
Despite the expected #surge in #inflation early in the week, #bulls picked themselves up to rally #stocks into Friday. We discuss the potential for a short-term #bounce, why the #Fed will make a #mistake, and #postioning now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
#LessonLearned - don't anticipate the turn in your #technicalsignals. As noted last week, it "seemed" the signal had turned, but it didn't. The #signal is very #oversold, so set up for a short-term #bounce is likely. Caution is still advised for now.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
If we are #correct in our assessment about the roll-off #effect of #stimulus and #liquidity, we could well see #bonds outperform #stocks in 2022. We are watching very closely as we currently hold minimal duration in our fixed-income #portfolios.
realinvestmentadvice.com/despite-surgin…
Read 5 tweets
#MacroView
#NFIB data says we are only in a #recovery, not an #economic expansion.
While the NFIB data doesn't get much #media attention, it should as it tells you much about what is really happening in the #economy.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib…
Reason I pay attention to #NFIB
Sept 2019 - Data rings alarm bells on #recession.
April 2020 - Data says recession arrived.
May 2020 - Data says #economic recovery not as strong as media suggests.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
If businesses were expecting a massive surge in “#pentup#demand, they would prepare for it. Such includes #planning to increase #capex to meet expected demand. Unfortunately, those expectations peaked in 2018 and are dropping back to the March 2020 lows.
realinvestmentadvice.com/macroview-nfib… Image
Read 7 tweets
1/ #RealYield is the ultimate driver for #Gold price; to be exact, it's the #negative #realyield that had been driving the gold price!

An important historical fact was during the 1975 - 1980s hyper-inflationary period, #gold went parabolic due to #realyield going "negative"...
2/ Look at the above chart closely, #gold price started to bottom in tandem with #realyield dropping below 0%; conversely, #gold price peaked ahead of the #realyield turning positive.

In other words, gold price can be a leading indicator prior to the #realyield turning positive!
3/ Today's #gold price action (since Aug2020) is reminiscent of the period during #Year2011's peak where #gold price was dropping in tandem with #realyield prior to the bottoming in #realyield;

Gold price then turned decisively lower as #realyield finally bottomed.
Read 8 tweets
#Global #ETF Weekly & Month-end (thread): 29 Jan 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sector making comeback in 2021 $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #Nigeria & #UAE in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $NGE $UAE

- #SouthAfrica $EZA moved into top15 YTD performers
2/12

#EmergingMarkets #ETF still storming ahead against #DevelopedMarkets ETF, still not relatively "overbought" yet, but getting close.

#SouthAfrica might need a lot of catch up, but $EZA YTD performance in USD (+0.2%) continued 2nd half on 2020 recovery against $URTH (-0.8%)
3/12

#Global #Value #stocks still making short-term recovery, with $IWVL #ETF still looking strong relatively over the short-term. Over 3yr period it is however still lagging quite substantially.
Read 13 tweets
Daily Bookmarks to GAVNet 01/22/2021 greeneracresvaluenetwork.wordpress.com/2021/01/22/dai…
‘A Total Failure’: The Proud Boys Now Mock Trump

nytimes.com/2021/01/20/tec…

#PartisanPolitics
Read 8 tweets
The @NFIB #survey doesn't get much #media attention, but it should. Small businesses make up almost 70% of #employment and their #confidence tells us much about the #economy and #smallcap stocks.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
In December, the #NFIB survey declined to 95.9 from a peak of 108.8. Notably, many suggest the drop was “#politically driven” by #conservative owners. While there was indeed a drop following the election, the decline continues what started in 2018.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Hopes for a #strong #economic recovery may be premature. While #stimulus will give a short-term lift to the economy, once it is spent, growth fades. Businesses won't #invest into artificial supports.
realinvestmentadvice.com/nfib-survey-se…
Read 8 tweets
#Global #ETF Weekly (thread): 15 Jan 2021

- 2020 worst perf #sector making comeback in 2021 $IXC

- This is helping #oil producing countries with #Nigeria, #UAE & #Russia in top5 #Country ETF YTD performers in USD $NGE $UAE $ERUS

- Few countries moving in red this week
2/8

#Global #Value #stocks still making short-term recovery, with $IWVL #ETF still looking very strong relatively over the short-term. Over 3yr period it is however still lagging quite substantially.

This should be interesting for this months #OrbisvsSP500 unofficial challenge
3/8

This one is worrying, but then again, it's been for some time. #Global #Tech #stocks relative to #MSCI All Country World Index is definitely creating some concern. Be very careful.

$IXN vs $ACWI
Read 9 tweets
#McKinsey Data visualizations from "Charting the Path to the Next Normal". "Globally, governments allocated a stunning $10 trillion for #economic #stimulus in just two months. That was triple what they spent during the entire 2008–09 financial #crisis."

mckinsey.com/featured-insig…
"#Digital became the way to get many things done—from visits to doctors to shopping to #socializing. The reliance by Asian governments & businesses on six digital & mobile technologies would become a model for the world."

#4IR #5G #GreatReset #telehealth
#McKinsey is a World Economic Forum strategic partner.
On Jan 25-29, "The #Davos Agenda", will focus on "the future of work, accelerating stakeholder capitalism, & the Fourth Industrial Revolution." #Social, #human & "natural capital".

Read 7 tweets
@RonaldKlain @waltshaub What Americans want to understand is HOW did the negotiations, for the #StimulusPackage #CovidReliefBill
DRAG ON until December?
Now, millions of Americans benefits are in jeopardy, maybe until @JoeBiden is sworn in on January 20, 2020
BOTH PARTIES played politics
@HouseDemocrats
@RonaldKlain @waltshaub @JoeBiden @HouseDemocrats I'm NOT a pessimist.
I'm a REALIST.
With that said, I hope the Biden administration is taking NOTE of the Republican congress in JUST THIS MONTH.
Republicans like Democrats, are fractured.
We know Joe Biden.
We NEED his circle to be REALISTS
#Stimulus

@Transition46 @KamalaHarris
@RonaldKlain @waltshaub @JoeBiden @HouseDemocrats @Transition46 @KamalaHarris HOW did Tom Brady and Kanye West get PPP money from the CARES ACT?
Do you KNOW how much just their SPOUSES are worth??
Not just them, but their spouses are worth MILLIONS OF DOLLARS.
But, congress had a FIGHT over $600 checks to working class Americans @EUCouncil
#StimulusPackage
Read 5 tweets
People keep talking about how insane the valuations in the markets are right now. Let's look at some ridiculous math. Maybe it's not what you think.

Here's the M3 money supply at the beginning of the year.
And here's the M3 money supply at the end of this year.
We have about 3.4 trillion more US dollars wiggling around the United States.
Read 14 tweets
1/💩ton

OK we have text of the new Stimulus bill... combined w/ a WHOLE lot of other legislation.

In all the PDF version of the full bill clocks in at 5593 pages. Can be found: docs.house.gov/floor/404-main…

Buckle up. This is gonna be a LONG ride!
2/x

But before we dive into the bill, a quick note from my soap box… This whole process is absurd. They JUST released a 5k+ page bill, and they are going to vote on it TODAY.

They aren't even pretending to have time to read what they're voting on anymore.

*Steps off soap box*
3/x

Ok... on to the meat. Let's start by answering the question that so many are already asking... “Will I be getting another #stimulus check?”

The answer, like last time, is “Maybe.”

Notably, the maximum stimulus amount per person this time around is $600.
Read 89 tweets
Will there be a #COVID19 #stimulus this week or will Congress continue to tell Americans to go fuck themselves?
People are stealing bread, pasta and baby formula to survive.

At end of December, millions of Americans could lose their homes when a moratorium on evictions expires & 12mln long-term jobless and gig workers will lose supplemental federal unemployment benefits.

Unconscionable
If I had children I would not just steal to feed them, I would set the world on fire for them. 

We should all set fire to a world that allows anyone’s children to go hungry.
Read 4 tweets
The turn of the calendar year invites the temptation to prognosticate regarding the course of the year ahead for the #economy and for #markets, and not being immune to that impulse, here are our views on the “11 themes to consider as we look toward 2021:” bit.ly/386mb0r
In preview, one key theme is that 2021’s nominal #GDP growth is likely to surprise many skeptics with its strength. The sources of upside surprise can be found in: 1) the new #fiscal #stimulus combined with structural budget #deficits
And in 2) the @federalreserve’s ongoing asset purchases and 3) the impressive #economic momentum that is still broadly underestimated, as a post-election, and #pandemic-recovering world can catalyze 2020/21’s monetized #stimulus (more than 15% of GDP) into impressive NGDP growth.
Read 10 tweets
Will there be a #COVID19 #stimulus this week or will Congress continue to tell Americans to go fuck themselves?
At end of December, millions of Americans could lose their homes when a moratorium on evictions expires & 12mln long-term jobless and gig workers will lose supplemental federal unemployment benefits.

People are stealing bread, pasta and baby formula to survive.

Unconscionable
If I had children I would not just steal to feed them, I would set the world on fire for them. 

We should all set fire to a world that allows anyone’s children to go hungry. There is enough food in this wealthiest country in the history of humanity, no one should be hungry.
Read 5 tweets

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