Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #summerofGeorge
Most recents (4)
1/x It’s not what it looks like…Often when market participants look & see a new low in IVol, like we just witnessed this Friday w/ the lowest VIX since 3/2020, commentators are quick to couch this as a sign of downside ‘complacency.’The reality is it is often quite the opposite.
2/x More often than not (& definitely this time around) Institutional players are simply comfortable writing calls & laying their deltas off, substituting bi-directional delta neutral Vol risk for long market risk, due to all the overwhelming evidence that positioning/valuations/
3/x fed policy are stretched, as stated in the thread from last week below👇. Whether it’s breadth, HF positioning, seasonality, or simply the Fed’s incoming taper (the ‘Fed Call’) we are seeing this now. This is a primary driver of the high index skew that all the talking heads
1/x Not much to see here. Another summer day, another day of dispersion. #SummerofGeorge. 👇The market is dramatically oversupplied gamma in today’s expiration. So despite all the blinking orange ⚠️ lights, it should continue to be placid into 7/12… we finally broke above the https://t.co/7HmyoUZein
2/x 1.5 std dev of the 20 day yesterday on close, which is a sign of strengthening momentum. If we can maintain the 20 day, during this period, it is always dangerous to ‘short a dull market’ due to the eventual vanna/charm effects as we head into the long weekend next week.
3/3 calendar spreads are a good play at these Vol levels. Selling 7/2 to buy post 7/12. Feel free to disperse about the cabin. Always hold tails in this environment. Everything from Wednesday still applies. Be 💦. Good luck! 🍀
1/x On the road, for meetings so gonna keep the 🥐 light & flaky... Everything from the ‘Summer of George’ 📆 👇 still applies. A time of serenity is upon us. Mr. market is stuck between incoming 👸/🦥 flows+ oversupplied IVol & ongoing technical weakness+bond market divergences,
2/x & increasingly overly bullish ST sentiment, the market has reasons to BTD & STR. With a $44 1-week SPX straddle, after a $36 1 day rally on Fri, NTM a $27 Fed meeting 1 day ‘Event Straddle’ for the Fed. Ultimately, the winning trade’ll likely continue to be a📍’ed market w/
3/x lower Fixed strike Vol for months to come. 👀 the 1.5 std dev up of the 20 day SMA. We continue to play 🐔 w/it and have yet to close above. A recapture of this level on a close would be bullish. Continued rejection there passed 6/16 would be a reason for concern as we leave
1/x Something a little different this time... A CALENDAR 📆For the SUMMER OF GEORGE:
*6/7-15 pre-Fed IVol ++ oversupplied+👸&🦥= Mudville🧲,
*6/16-18 Fed, Vixperation, OpEx... w/Ivol well supplied behind @ 4115 strike in 6/30, Event Vol crush =Vanna + 🦥...support likely 💪🏼—>🚀
*6/7-15 pre-Fed IVol ++ oversupplied+👸&🦥= Mudville🧲,
*6/16-18 Fed, Vixperation, OpEx... w/Ivol well supplied behind @ 4115 strike in 6/30, Event Vol crush =Vanna + 🦥...support likely 💪🏼—>🚀
2/x * 6/21-6/30 IVol dramatically oversupplied+supportive EOQ/BOQ flows
*6/30-7/6 JPM SepQ IVol 🔨 +Holiday IVol oversupply=Mudville 🧲
*7/7-7/12 👸& 🦥power week
*7/12-7/31... 🎯1st chance @ weakness... 👀 delayed Vixperation, 👸 & 🦥 extended holiday—> 5 week cycle...
*6/30-7/6 JPM SepQ IVol 🔨 +Holiday IVol oversupply=Mudville 🧲
*7/7-7/12 👸& 🦥power week
*7/12-7/31... 🎯1st chance @ weakness... 👀 delayed Vixperation, 👸 & 🦥 extended holiday—> 5 week cycle...
3/x Despite all of this...market still technically/fundamentally weak, & taper talk imminent. Which means market is likely capped. Sell SPX calls under hedged, sell SPX puts fully hedged... tactically @ levels, @ 🕰 windows. 2 sided. Buy Ivol where the squeezes are. Both ⬇️ & ⬆️
