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My personal top 25 predictions for 2023
1-2 tweets per #taek, 1 chart/pic to make it EZ on the eyes/brain
Some overlap with @twobitidiot and our firmwide theses but some notable deviations
Thanks to my awesome colleagues @MessariCrypto research for shaping many of these
1-2 tweets per #taek, 1 chart/pic to make it EZ on the eyes/brain
Some overlap with @twobitidiot and our firmwide theses but some notable deviations
Thanks to my awesome colleagues @MessariCrypto research for shaping many of these
1. Macro still matters. Q1 is likely to be rough
Rapid incr. in IRs + removal of liq have hist. been followed by crises as the receding tide of ez mon. policy exposes systemic weaknesses
Something will break in tradfi. Watch credit spreads
ETH 1k BTC 15k arent unreasonable Q1
Rapid incr. in IRs + removal of liq have hist. been followed by crises as the receding tide of ez mon. policy exposes systemic weaknesses
Something will break in tradfi. Watch credit spreads
ETH 1k BTC 15k arent unreasonable Q1
2. Late Q3/Q4 we are full go bull market w/ macro tailwinds
The FED doesnt cut but pauses + stops QT
Liq. correlation with risk assets = ~1
Disinflation becomes a bigger risk v infl. w/ supply chains fully healed, wages/housing stagnating, unem. rising + ex. savings warn off
The FED doesnt cut but pauses + stops QT
Liq. correlation with risk assets = ~1
Disinflation becomes a bigger risk v infl. w/ supply chains fully healed, wages/housing stagnating, unem. rising + ex. savings warn off
