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U nailed it imho….first thing people do is go back to the last episode (2018-2020) w/o a good understanding of the changing contextual backdrop as well as QT mitigants that are currently in place & evolving further.
$XLF #Reflation
$XLF #Reflation
Another big time clue imho… $BAC did a 4.5% Pref Issuance a few days ago… if that ain’t a sign the Market has too much liquidity not sure what is….
$XLF #Reflation
$XLF #Reflation
From most recent peak:
$XLF -7.5%
$QQQ -13%
YTD:
$HYG -1.8%
$XLF: -2.1%
$LQD -2.7%
$QQQ: -12%
$BKLN Flat
$XLF -7.5%
$QQQ -13%
YTD:
$HYG -1.8%
$XLF: -2.1%
$LQD -2.7%
$QQQ: -12%
$BKLN Flat
This set up doesn’t exist today…CCCs were widening in late 2018 & 2019….Fuse was lit… now not so much.
CCCs don’t care at all about #TechPetrocks $ZROZ & high duration stuff getting smoked.
$XLF #Reflation 🚀
CCCs don’t care at all about #TechPetrocks $ZROZ & high duration stuff getting smoked.
$XLF #Reflation 🚀
Yield Curve (10Y3M) Steepening, Dr. Copper Ripping, HY Bonds Unch all year at +310bps OAS, CCCs have tightened -12bps this year..& tightened by -18bps in the last 10 days…
$HYG is 4 year effective/spread duration… not terrible… CCCs shorter at 3 yrs & +667bps OAS. $XLF
$HYG is 4 year effective/spread duration… not terrible… CCCs shorter at 3 yrs & +667bps OAS. $XLF
The Yield Curve is Steepening….
Front End of the Curve ain’t anywhere close to a Double Dip Recession.
Maybe the Talking Heads know more than the Bond Markets?
I Highly Doubt it.
$XLF #Reflation
Front End of the Curve ain’t anywhere close to a Double Dip Recession.
Maybe the Talking Heads know more than the Bond Markets?
I Highly Doubt it.
$XLF #Reflation
