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This week's rainfall forecasts for the #HornOfAfrica, #NorthAfrica and the #Middle East follow.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Image: Typhoon INFA over China showing the lights of Tokyo where the world is gathered to celebrate youth & excellence and the unity of the nations of the world at the Olympics.
Two typhoons getting closer and closer to each other. #INFA on the right is sucking the much smaller #Cempaka into its orbit. Sucking up all its outflow and chucking it out east.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
The pair of typhoons current winds are fixed by JTWC at 70 and 65 knots at 06Z.
Here are the current warning graphics from the JTWC. 
Congratulations to Ethiopia and Ethiopians everywhere on today's completion of the 2nd filling of the #GERD. It has been a great honour to follow along during this moment.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
The presentation of the #ArabianMonsoonBurst has changed dramatically today with the consolidation of activity over the Arabian Peninsula into a single huge storm which is currently moving into the Red Sea over Makkah and Jeddah.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The scale of the storm over Islam's holiest city is huge, larger than France. Two more huge storms loom over the greater region tonight. One on the Iranian Gulf coast and another supercell thunderstorm complex over New Delhi/Rajastan, India, the size of the United Kingdom.
The last six hours in three animations, first India which is experiencing a massive monsoon day today in the north.
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
[Here the initial frames show a blank SEA as their was a satellite data outage.]
Today is possibly the apex of this #ArabianMonsoonBurst which began several days ago now. It's hard to imagine it getting bigger than this.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrican #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
The animation above is for 12 hours hence the arriving and departing light effect. As always the engine behind this is the Indian Monsoon which you can see here this morning gathering strength.
A close up from the end of today shows how the big storms over #SaudiArabia are generating new atmospheric rivers of moisture, or plumes, over the Sahara, you can see these top right.
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
[Note: Atmospheric rivers are often invisible, this one becomes visible as night falls.]
The magnitude of #ArabianMonsoonBurst is now apparent. A major storm is about to cross the Red Sea and arrive in the #HornOfAfrica. Behind it are two enormous super-cell thunderstorms.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
The rain activity shown in the @zoom_earth animation preceding is only radar based, Saudi radar, and in this case is complementary to the @Meteoblue satellite rainfall estimates you see below. There is likely significantly more rainfall in this than you see here.
Here we see India (the heart of this Monsoon), this morning to 10am East Africa Time. I.E. around seven hours ago.
On day 3 of #ArabianMonsoonBlast here's the view over the region tonight. This is definitely bringing rain, and lots of it to both Tigray and #GERD.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's Big Pictures provide a view of the entire planet today in three images.
1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia
Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
1. The Atlantic
2. The Pacific
3. Asia
Sometimes its helpful to take a broad view and remember that we are all on this planet together. And that we share the one amazing life giving biosphere.
I found another #MonsoonBurst in the pipeline, this time over the Western Pacific. One which shows very clearly that weird weather is now a universal phenomena in the Northern Hemisphere. And it all started with another Typhoon...
Thread attached...
Thread attached...
The full monsoon has now arrived in the #HornOfAfrica. Very intense rain has begun in the Nile Basin and will continue for a week or more.
What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
What will happen in the #MiddleEast is less clear, but it will involve a lot of rain and #ArabianStorms. Today's forecasts follow.
This animation shows the flow of rain bearing clouds heading south west across Pakistan which signals the first phase of an event which will intensify significantly over coming days.
This animation shows under wrapped in pulsating bands of storms headed both East and West. It is this intense period of Monsoon activity which is powering the phenomena that his bringing this rain to Yemen, Oman and Saudi Arabia.
Since the last rainfall forecast bulletin on Saturday, the forecast West Sahara rainfall burst has come and gone, and the forecast #ME/#HoA rainfall burst is now about to commence.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
First an update on Western Sahara. The peak of the storms came overnight on Saturday morning. Here we see a 6 hour rainfall animation from 2.30am to 8.30am.
And here we see a wider view following sunrise on Saturday morning. If you are curious as to what was forecast Saturday's rainfall forecast thread is quoted below >>
The next two weeks promise to bring astonishing weather to both sides of the Red Sea & across the Sahara. In this weather bulletin I will explain what the models are forecasting.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
In the image above we see part of Arabia and part of the #NileBasin storms - those which feed the Blue Nile/Abbay and the Tekeze basins the source of most of the Nile's flow.
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
Below we see:
1. All Nile Basin rainfall as of this evening
2. All of this evenings #ArabianStorms
The rainfall we see on both sides of the Red Sea comes mostly from the same source - the monsoon over the Arabian Sea, India and South East Asia.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
A satellite image from this morning shows what we currently think to be the cradle of humanity. Where we all come from.
Two Nile dams joined by nile 100kms apart as seen this morning by @NASA's Modis satellite. [Top right Sudan's Roseires and bottom left the #GERD.]
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's rainfall forecasts for #NorthAfrica, #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast follow.
Today's big picture is a dramatic shot of the Sahara at sunset with a massive storm over Mali and a line of clouds from the heart of Algeria's desert south east to Chad. On the right you can see tonight's storms over the #Ethiopia highlands.
The rainfall in the Western Sahara has just started but it has a few more days to run. In this animation of a simulation you see the precipitable water anomaly, which highlights areas which have much more water than normal for this time of year.
As the UNSC met tonight to discuss the #GERD storms continued to form over Ethiopia's highlands the source of the water which is currently filling the dam.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
Today's #NorthAfrica #HornOfAfrica and #MiddleEast rainfall forecasts follow.
During the UNSC meeting. Ethiopia's water minister explained how this works. "The filling of the dam is part of the construction process.... When the dam is filled the water either flows over the dam or through the bottom outlets."
The Minister later spoke to media :
Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?
A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
Q: (@AJEnglish): Why don't you stop filling the dam?
A: All dams are filling. Why? Because it is the rainy season. In fact it is good to protect from floods. We have bountiful water. It doesn't hurt anyone.
