Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #theGreatDecoupling
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This is #theGreatDecoupling between the West and Russia. Economic linkages will be cut down to only energy and a few other commodities & chemicals that Europe is dependent on Russia for. The West controls and has weaponized their entire economy in their war to break Russia. 1/-
^ 2/- Political, social and cultural linkages will also be severed to a high degree. Weaning Russia off this dependence will be hard and immiserating. But with Chinese and some other Eurasian support, Russia may just weather it. The entire global economy will suffer as well.
^ 3/- But once the dust has settled and new domestic and import substitution formed - Russia will at least be economically & financially independent from the West. They will never again be able to weaponize their economic hegemony to coerce, blackmail, or wage war on Russia.
One of our top risks this year #TheGreatDecoupling. See thread below on why we included this near the top...
(1/10) The Phase 1 trade agreement signed today between the US and China signals a ceasefire in nearly 2.5 year trade dispute. Many issues remain around implementation, enforcement, tariff reduction, etc. All of the really knotty tech related structural issues: pushed to Phase 2
(2/10) Key issues such as subsidies around industrial policy priorities such as Made in China 2025 for 10 key tech industries, market access in sectors such as cloud services, cybersecurity and data governance issues and more have been pushed into the Phase 2 process.
