Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #thermalcoal

Most recents (3)

Thought of the day: Fighting #commodity price tops will just result in 75% plus stockprice retracements, #cyclicality music always stops, grab a chair early to avoid serious regrets and portfolio destruction. Easy clue to follow, is 65-80% margins above cost curves are peakish.
Those #commodities that are currently near bottoming (0-20%) for the next up cycle 2H2023-2025....

#tin -65%
#ironore -66%
#nickel -60% (moving up)
#Lumber -72%
#zinc -40%
#HRCSteel -67%

Know where you are in the cycle....
1st Quartile candidates for the next cycle...
Read 8 tweets
Why is $AHQ a takeover target?

Cap < 5% of NPV

Trading at a 80% discount to peer group

Cap per tonne of Resource = 6c (or 70c of reserves)

Optimized cash margin per tonne = $50-75 over 2023-2024

Tenas Project lowest AISC and low capex start up.

#coal #metcoal #thermalcoal
It's always interesting that those who loved the stock at 50c, hate it at 5c or indicate the risks are much greater at 5c than thing is for sure, on successful optimization the returns are much higher at 5c than 50c. At 50c the discount to NPV was 88%, at 5c it's 95%.
Tenas NPV at $125/t price and only 15% of the resource is A$300m, at $180/t pricing and 60% of the resource the NPV is over A$2bn alone. The hidden gem of why $AHQ is a bargain at 5c #coal $CKA $WHC
Read 5 tweets
$NHC $NHC.AX breaks $4 without a sweat

Buying looks to be driven by short-covering in the final 3 trading days pre-dividend and strong fundamental outlook for Australian thermal #coal

Old thread link here, so I don't traumatise my Koala friend further 😉
Interesting thread and statistics on seaborne thermal #coal

There is a lot of nuance and frictional elements in the physical supply chain to keep in mind when reading these statistics

...and there we have it folks, Newcastle thermal #coal futures once again break $300/t in early trade 🔥🔥🔥

$NHC $WHC $YAL minting it in this environment


#coaltwitter Image
Read 118 tweets

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