Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #thisisnotpollreporting
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#Qldpol Courier-Mail Yougov polling but for the noise about "shock" results there is not much to see here, wait for the important ones
couriermail.com.au/news/queenslan…
couriermail.com.au/news/queenslan…
I've commented about "enjoys the high life" before. The Courier-Mail clearly loves this question but it's not clear if the voters who say yes to it see it as a negative. Would they commission this question if the incumbent was a man?
"Shock result if election held today" coming in an hour might be more interesting - we will see!
#ThisIsNotPollReporting
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Another similar report at news.com.au has "Concern within the Labor Party is mounting, with polling revealed by the Herald Sun this week predicting a possible hung parliament."
1. The poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
#pollshaped object detected (thread)
Their readout only includes Labor, Coalition parties, Greens, PHON and other so that alone will inflate the PHON vote. As could asking voting intention at Q25 given the nature of many of the preceding questions.
Note: Online Research Unit is not yet an @auspollcouncil member. Poll report does include some details of weighting but the biggest issue here is APRI using some very skewed questions.
#pollshapedobject
#pollshapedobject
