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By-election night thread! Polls have just closed at the #Wakefieldbyelection and the #TivertonandHonitonByElection. Analysis follows
As usual THERE ARE NO EXIT POLLS
Load up on coffee as it's going to be a late one. BBC suggested earlier that declarations could be around 4am...
As usual THERE ARE NO EXIT POLLS
Load up on coffee as it's going to be a late one. BBC suggested earlier that declarations could be around 4am...
In terms of likely outcomes I'll have much more on this later, but little doubt that #Wakefield (for which polls have been published) is going back to Labour, whereas #TivertonandHoniton (where none have) is murkier, but Lib Dems I've heard from seem much happier than Tories...
I’ll be talking a lot about swing, and it’s notable that the national picture is somewhat murky too (part random variation aka margin of error, part systematic differences between pollsters aka house effects) but on average GB polls are showing about a 9% swing from CON to LAB 
