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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Voting in the Volunteer State today: Tennessee holds primaries for House and Senate seats.
There's an open #TNSen seat race with 3rd term Republican Senator Lamar Alexander not running for reelection. 15 Republicans including former Trump US Amb to Japan Bill Hagerty and Dr. Manny Sethi and 5 Democrats including Nashville atty James Mackler are running to succeed him.
6th term #TN01 Republican Rep. Phil Roe, ranking member & former chair of House VA Cmte, is not running for reelection. 16 Republicans are running to succeed him in northeastern Tennessee House seat which GOP has held since 1881. Winner will likely face Democrat Blair Walsingham.
Read 5 tweets
House members will vote by proxy for the 1st time in chamber's 231-yr history beginning Wed. House clerk posted letters from mbrs who will not be physically present on House floor for votes due to COVID-19 pandemic & have given their proxies to other mbrs.
clerkpreview.house.gov/ProxyLetter#Ac…
1st term #CA39 Democratic @RepGilCisneros has designated his voting proxy to 1st term #PA06 Democratic @RepHoulahan. Image
3rd term #VA08 Democratic @RepDonBeyer, who represents one of the closest House districts to Capitol Hill, will vote by proxy for 7th term Democratic #TN09 @RepCohen, chair of the House Judiciary Subcommittee on the Constitution, Civil Rights, and Civil Liberties. Image
Read 59 tweets
‼️PROGRESSIVES‼️

We must remember down-ballot candidates.

This is a list of progressive/leftist congressional candidates endorsed by at least one of these groups:

@BrandNew535
@BoldProgressive
@justicedems
@pdamerica
@RoseCaucus

#UniteLeft
#Progress2020
Please remember:

⚠️STATE CANDIDATE PRIMARIES MAY BE ON DIFFERENT DATES THAN THE PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY⚠️

Double check your registration at least 1 MONTH 🗓 before any election you plant to vote in.

Also, endorsements are an ongoing process
Some races have 2 different candidates endorsed by different groups, so they’re both listed.

Legend:
📖➡️ platform/issues link
💵➡️ donation link

If the pinned tweet is related to their campaign, I included it.

Now, onto the (long) list.
Read 83 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate.
Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.

@GregStantonAZ #AZ09 202-225-9888
@RepSwalwell #CA15 202-225-5065
@TedLieu #CA33 202-225-3976
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@RepLouCorrea #CA46 202-225-2965
@RepKarenBass #CA37 202-225-7084
@RepZoeLofgren #CA19 202-225-3072
@HouseJudiciary @gregstantonaz @RepSwalwell @tedlieu Call these @HouseJudiciary Dems. Ask why they’re afraid to frame the debate. Tell them to REINSTATE #AssaultWeaponsBan & propose Feinstein Sen. Bill 66.
@JoeNeguse #CO02 202-225-2161
@RepValDemings #FL10 202-225-2176
@RepTedDeutch #FL22 202-225-3001
Read 8 tweets
Hey #TENNESSEE!
Here’s a THREAD of all the Primary winners...
Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018 w/ photos, websites, twitter.
AND Voter Info w/ Links
Registration, Early Voting, Absentee, Poll Worker
#VoteBlueTN #VoteBlue
#TN01 #TN02 #TN03 #TN04 #TN05 #TN06 #TN07 #TN08 #TN09
VOTER REGISTRATION in Tennessee
Online or printed application must be submitted at least 30 days before an election.
Register online here: ovr.govote.tn.gov/Registration/
Download application here: sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com/forms/ss-3010.…
Send to County Election Officials here: tnsos.org/elections/elec…
Democratic Candidates for Congress #TN01 #TN1 #Tennessee
Marty Olsen
Physician
olsenforcongress.com
@martyo4congress

vs Phil Roe (R)

VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
#VoteBlueTN #Midterms2018

THREAD
Read 16 tweets
Hey #TENNESSEE
You get to start Early Voting for your #PrimaryElection next week!
Here’s a THREAD of all your Democratic Candidates!
Primaries are August 2nd! But you can start Early Voting next week!
#VoteBlue
#TN01 #TN02 #TN03 #TN04 #TN05 #TN06 #TN07 #TN08 #TN09
VOTER REGISTRATION in Tennessee
Online or printed application must be submitted at least 30 days before an election.
Register online here: ovr.govote.tn.gov/Registration/#
Download application here: sos-tn-gov-files.s3.amazonaws.com/forms/ss-3010.…
Send to County Election Officials here: tnsos.org/elections/elec…
EARLY VOTING in Tennessee
Tennessee permits no-excuse early voting.
Early Voting begins 20 days before an Election and ends on the 7 before a presidential primary and 5 days before any other Election.
Contact your County Election Officials for details here tnsos.org/elections/elec…
Read 16 tweets

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