Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #ttf
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Fantastic presentation on the Ulster Bank scandal from ex RBS/NatWest treasury executive @ianhtyler. He finds it astonishing that John Swift KC was paid £7m-£8m to review the FCA’s swaps redress scheme when he didn’t really understand swaps. 
It was “completely fraudulent” of Ulster Bank to book hidden liabilities against business customers in order to take hidden margin from swap sales, and the failure of regulators to take action is worse — ex RBS/NatWest Treasury manager @ianhtyler at #TTF Ulster Bank scandal event
Steve Middleton makes clear RBS/NatWest bank managers *did* personally benefit from selling IRHPs to business customers, sometimes doubling their salaries by selling three in a year. “There’s a mass of lies about the Ulster Bank sales process”. Email is from Perks vs NatWest case
Since the recent event with arguably the largest echo was the #FOMC decision, it's called - what else- "The Pause That Refreshes"
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve
1/n
#FRB
#FederalReserve
The first thing to notice is that goods prices have broadly stabilised and volumes are fairly flat - in other words, #NGDP has ceased its torrid pace of increase. Service prices are still elevated but #payroll cost increase is slowing.
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The #ISM #PMI showed an uptick but is still below 50 which implies that revenue growth is NOT about to accelerate again. Again, slower #inflation & flatline volume = an end to the boom, but not yet a bust.
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3/n
Watch European natgas consumption explode for rest of December as we enter a persistent cold spell, especially in Central Europe...!
#TTF #NBP @OKalleklev
#TTF #NBP @OKalleklev
A preview below - Czech Republic
Slovakia already at record highs
EU natural gas demand in November was 24% below the five-year average, early @ICISOfficial data shows. A month before, in October, consumption was also 24% below the average. 1/5
#natgas #TTF #ONGT
#natgas #TTF #ONGT
Demand cuts of a similar order of magnitude were achieved by the EU’s two largest gas-consuming member states.
German demand in November was 23% below average, whereas in October savings were 26%. 2/5
German demand in November was 23% below average, whereas in October savings were 26%. 2/5
Italian gas demand was 21% lower than the five-year average in November, having been 23% a month earlier.
In non-EU Great Britain, gas demand was 19% below its five-year average in November, having been 24% a month earlier. 3/5
In non-EU Great Britain, gas demand was 19% below its five-year average in November, having been 24% a month earlier. 3/5
Today’s #TTE 🇪🇺 Energy Council was not an easy one. But we did have a clear political support for several key measures to tackle the ongoing #energy crisis.
The ministers reached political agreement on five crucial issues. 1/5
The ministers reached political agreement on five crucial issues. 1/5
First, for making joint purchases of gas a reality. We have a process in place that will allow us to pool our demand & buy 13.5bcm of gas together next year.
This prevents us from outbidding each other on the global market & helps to fill the storage. 2/5
This prevents us from outbidding each other on the global market & helps to fill the storage. 2/5
Qui le mie considerazioni sulle potenziali misure relative al price cap! Grazie a #rienergia #staffettaonline per avermi invitato! rienergia.staffettaonline.com/articolo/35095… #natgas #ttf #henryhub
Considerazioni di natura teorica, di microstruttura dei mercati, di relazioni mercati fisici/finanziari, di applicabilità dello stesso…#ttf #pricecap #henryhub #futures #curvaforward #contango #backwardation #lng #gas #naturalgas #cap #nopricecap
@CarloStagnaro @ominodellaluce @ominodelgas @SimoBenedettini @degiorgiod @Fab_True_Enough @durezzadelviver @cla_squeglia @I_Faiella @GennaroSenatore @SilviaBerzoni @MNicolazzi pareri e critiche benvenute..
🧐So… are high natural gas prices over in Europe? #TTF
🌞Warm weather in Europe along with the increment in #LNG imports have diminished the natural gas prices in Europe
⛵️70% of US LNG exports went to Europe in 3Q22 compared to 30% in 3Q21
🌞Warm weather in Europe along with the increment in #LNG imports have diminished the natural gas prices in Europe
⛵️70% of US LNG exports went to Europe in 3Q22 compared to 30% in 3Q21
🇪🇺natural gas inventories are at 95% capacity and Day Ahead prices have plunged ~90% from Aug
As a consequence, there are > 30 LNG carriers waiting to unload in Europe as it is more profitable for them to wait for colder temperatures ➡️ Day Ahead prices recover (Contango)
As a consequence, there are > 30 LNG carriers waiting to unload in Europe as it is more profitable for them to wait for colder temperatures ➡️ Day Ahead prices recover (Contango)
So..are high nat gas prices over?
Well, we as 🇪🇺 have been lucky of the 🌞we had in Oct. But, situation changes from now on as ❄️ arrives & the 95% capacity figure is a bit tricky
👉🏽It only covers 20% of yearly demand and is designed to receive nat gas from 🇷🇺 during winter
Well, we as 🇪🇺 have been lucky of the 🌞we had in Oct. But, situation changes from now on as ❄️ arrives & the 95% capacity figure is a bit tricky
👉🏽It only covers 20% of yearly demand and is designed to receive nat gas from 🇷🇺 during winter
Don't mix up the recent collapse in EU gas spot prices with the pain for consumers and CPI readings yet to come.
Take GER consumers/SMEs: they are yet to absorb the pain from higher wholesale gas future prices for utilities in the coming months.
1/n #TTF #LNG @kittysquiddy
Take GER consumers/SMEs: they are yet to absorb the pain from higher wholesale gas future prices for utilities in the coming months.
1/n #TTF #LNG @kittysquiddy
Following a one-off payment in Dec of 8.3% of the annual household bill for gas, Germany will cap consumer prices for gas for households at €120/MWh for 80% of their usual consumption. Beyond that, consumers/SMEs will pay the wholesale (future) price for any additional gas.
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1M forward TTF (EU wholesale natgas hub price) surged as high as €313/MWh in Aug 2022 (hight of NS1 sabotage panic) and are now €114/MWh (€33/MMBtu).
However, as GER still gets some gas under long-term contracts, actual IMPORT prices are a better proxy for pain to come.
3/
However, as GER still gets some gas under long-term contracts, actual IMPORT prices are a better proxy for pain to come.
3/
How long will EU gas prices and with it EU power prices and likely the Euro, inflation expectations and European rates get a break?
Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?
1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
Anwer: It (mainly) depends on weather. So what is the forecast?
1/n #TTF #NBP #EUR
The main consumers of gas is North West, Central & South East EU. We disregard Nordics which consumes little.
North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!
Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.
2/n
North West temps are currently 6% higher than its 30-y normal - a lot!
Temps are forecast to stay above normal into Dec. However, post 10 Nov only by 1.5%.
2/n
Both South East & Central Europe are 5% above 30-year normal temps too. Both regions are forecast to normalise after 10 November.
That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.
My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).
3/n
That will leave gas storages constrained well into Dec.
My hunch is that gas prices will not recover much until storages go < 55% (Jan/Feb).
3/n
The only certainty for European natural gas prices going forward is volatility, volatility and more volatility.
Here is why...
1/n #LNG #TTF
Here is why...
1/n #LNG #TTF
The Great Rotation: With the invastion of Ukraine, VVP decided to use gas as a weapon & cut pipeline flows into Europe.
In return, Europe maxed out LNG terminal capacities & contracted every available free LNG cargo globally to compensate the collapse of Russian flows.
2/n
In return, Europe maxed out LNG terminal capacities & contracted every available free LNG cargo globally to compensate the collapse of Russian flows.
2/n
Europe was able to attract LNG by being the best business globally.
How? By offering the highest prices. A cargo owner such as Trafigura or Total which bought LNG at Cheniere in US for $4.1/MMBtu + $3 gasification fee in Jan 2022 booked a pre-shipping profit of $21/MMBtu.
3/n
How? By offering the highest prices. A cargo owner such as Trafigura or Total which bought LNG at Cheniere in US for $4.1/MMBtu + $3 gasification fee in Jan 2022 booked a pre-shipping profit of $21/MMBtu.
3/n
Mucho se está escribiendo sobre la caída de los precios del gas. Sin embargo, la situación sigue siendo insostenible para la industria. ¿Por qué? Porque lo que vemos en prensa se queda en el clickbait y el sensacionalismo sin entrar en el problema. 1/n
La caída que vemos en prensa es fundamentalmente la del #mibgas diario. Es una muy buena noticia para la construcción del precio de la electricidad en el pool. Pero no afecta a la mayoría de consumidores gasintensivos industriales. 2/n
#EnergyCrisis. Tomorrow, @EU_Commission will present a new package of emergency measures to deal with high energy prices. @AgencEurope got the leaks of the communication and the proposal for a Council regulation. According to these documents, Commission intends to propose:
(1/7)
(1/7)
-a new complementary price benchmark for LNG before the next filling season (early 2023)
-(in the meantime) a temporary mechanism to limit prices via the TTF. When triggered, this mechanism would establish a dynamic price limit for transactions on the #TTF
(2/7)
-(in the meantime) a temporary mechanism to limit prices via the TTF. When triggered, this mechanism would establish a dynamic price limit for transactions on the #TTF
(2/7)
-a new temporary intra-day price spike cap mechanism
-(On joint purchasing of gas) A mandatory participation by MS in the EU gas demand aggregation for at least 15% of their storage filling volume
-default rules on solidarity to boost bilateral solidarity agreements
(3/7)
-(On joint purchasing of gas) A mandatory participation by MS in the EU gas demand aggregation for at least 15% of their storage filling volume
-default rules on solidarity to boost bilateral solidarity agreements
(3/7)
🧵Nella proposta di Regolamento che domani la @EU_Commission presenterà domani al Consiglio, due articoli sono dedicati al #pricecap sul #gas. E’ una vittoria italiana? Vediamo
👇👇👇
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 1/n
👇👇👇
bloomberg.com/news/articles/… 1/n
Dal punto di vista politico e della comunicazione, gli articoli 23 e 24 della proposta sono senza dubbio una significativa apertura all’Italia. Il governo #Draghi chiede da mesi un tetto al #Ttf. Per la prima volta questa richiesta trova parziale accoglimento 2/n
Finora, l’idea del #pricecap sembrava non avere reali chance. E’ vero che quindici Stati membri, guidati dall’Italia, ne avevano chiesto l’introduzione… spglobal.com/commodityinsig… 3/n
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Facciamo il punto sulla situazione #gas in Europa 🔥
Come al solito una carrellata di dati, ognuno si fa la propria idea
Un thread sull'#energia e sui #prezzi 👇🧵
Facciamo il punto sulla situazione #gas in Europa 🔥
Come al solito una carrellata di dati, ognuno si fa la propria idea
Un thread sull'#energia e sui #prezzi 👇🧵
2/n
Cominciamo dalle buone notizie:
Europa (rappresentativo anche della Germania 🇩🇪, motore industriale del continente) e Italia 🇮🇹 con #riserve piene in anticipo
Come si vede dai grafici, siamo più alti dello scorso anno. Bene così.
Cominciamo dalle buone notizie:
Europa (rappresentativo anche della Germania 🇩🇪, motore industriale del continente) e Italia 🇮🇹 con #riserve piene in anticipo
Come si vede dai grafici, siamo più alti dello scorso anno. Bene così.
3/n
Prezzi #TTF in diminuzione. Non per forza positivo.
Se i prezzi non salgono vuol dire che -semplificando- non si riesce a pagare di più.
L'economia rallenta, la domanda diminuisce, il prezzo scende. Il compromesso che ci raccontiamo da tempo.
Consideriamo positivo al 50% 😇
Prezzi #TTF in diminuzione. Non per forza positivo.
Se i prezzi non salgono vuol dire che -semplificando- non si riesce a pagare di più.
L'economia rallenta, la domanda diminuisce, il prezzo scende. Il compromesso che ci raccontiamo da tempo.
Consideriamo positivo al 50% 😇
🇪🇺 #energycrisis response measures: here's them all together, plus assessment, brought to you by the @RegAssistProj team.
💡SAVE gas, tax corporate windfall profits, provide direct financial support. Don't cap.
1/n
💡SAVE gas, tax corporate windfall profits, provide direct financial support. Don't cap.
1/n
Yesterday saw the dramatic #Nordstream sabotage. Despite this, #fossilgas prices remain relatively stable.
They dropped significantly over the past weeks, but remain very high.
#TTF
2/n
They dropped significantly over the past weeks, but remain very high.
#TTF
2/n
Governments feeling the pressure seek for solutions, some good and some bad.
@eaGreenEU
3/n
euractiv.com/section/energy…
@eaGreenEU
3/n
euractiv.com/section/energy…
1/n
Ma che è successo con #Nordstream e #NordStream2 ? E cosa succederà?
Vi do un paio di strumenti per farvi la vostra idea
A thread👇🧵
Ma che è successo con #Nordstream e #NordStream2 ? E cosa succederà?
Vi do un paio di strumenti per farvi la vostra idea
A thread👇🧵
2/n
Vi presento #Nordstream, 4.1 cm di spessore di acciaio, ricoperto da 6-11cm di spessore di calcestruzzo armato
Ogni sezione pesa 11 tonnellate, 24 circa se consideriamo anche il calcestruzzo. Tosto da rompere.
(immagini Javier Blas)
Vi presento #Nordstream, 4.1 cm di spessore di acciaio, ricoperto da 6-11cm di spessore di calcestruzzo armato
Ogni sezione pesa 11 tonnellate, 24 circa se consideriamo anche il calcestruzzo. Tosto da rompere.
(immagini Javier Blas)
3/n
Ad essere danneggiato è stato anche il #NordStream2. Dalle zone segnalate dalla marina Danese, le chiusure dello spazio navale per i danni ai gasdotti son distanti 75km l'una dall'altra.
Sicuramente non un'ancora, una rete da pesca, una frana sottomarina.
Ad essere danneggiato è stato anche il #NordStream2. Dalle zone segnalate dalla marina Danese, le chiusure dello spazio navale per i danni ai gasdotti son distanti 75km l'una dall'altra.
Sicuramente non un'ancora, una rete da pesca, una frana sottomarina.
Let us look at the state of the European gas market.
We have worked hard to collect real time data where possible and are convinced to have a worldclass database by now.
What did we find out?
Thread 1/n
#TTF #LNG
We have worked hard to collect real time data where possible and are convinced to have a worldclass database by now.
What did we find out?
Thread 1/n
#TTF #LNG
Big picture first:
- Consumption: -12.2% yoy;
- RUS pipe imports: -48% yoy (inc. RUS LNG imports -42%);
- Local Production: +0.6% (Groningen could increase EU production by 10% alone within weeks);
- LNG imports: +70%.
- Net storage build: 45bcm!
2/n #Netherlands
- Consumption: -12.2% yoy;
- RUS pipe imports: -48% yoy (inc. RUS LNG imports -42%);
- Local Production: +0.6% (Groningen could increase EU production by 10% alone within weeks);
- LNG imports: +70%.
- Net storage build: 45bcm!
2/n #Netherlands
Storage:
- ITA, FRA, GER, POL or CZE have done a great job saving gas to fill salt cavities et al "whatever it takes style".
- UK cannot b/c it lacks storage;
- EE struggles to access more flows;
- EU covers 51 of 180 winter days (<2 months).
So it needs flows!
3/n
- ITA, FRA, GER, POL or CZE have done a great job saving gas to fill salt cavities et al "whatever it takes style".
- UK cannot b/c it lacks storage;
- EE struggles to access more flows;
- EU covers 51 of 180 winter days (<2 months).
So it needs flows!
3/n
Siccome la questione energetica è diventata terreno di scontro politico e sempre più soggetti citano a sproposito l'esempio del tetto al prezzo del gas in Spagna e Portogallo 🇵🇹🇪🇸 (el mitico tope gas 🐁) chiedendone applicazione in Italia cerchiamo di vedere come funziona 1/n
In ESP-POR è stato imposto un tetto amministrativo al prezzo dell'EE fissando a 40€ il prezzo del gas per il termoelettrico, la differenza tra cap e prezzo di mercato la pagano i consumatori attraverso una componente di compensazione aggiuntiva il cui peso varia....2/n
di giorno in giorno diciamo tra 70 e 200€.
Più precisamente ai produttori da gas e da carbone viene riconosciuta fuori mercato e per ogni MWh_el prodotto una componente perequativa pari a:
Yi=(Prezzo mkt gas - cap prezzo gas)/0,55. Il cap di prezzo al gas è partito da....3/n
Più precisamente ai produttori da gas e da carbone viene riconosciuta fuori mercato e per ogni MWh_el prodotto una componente perequativa pari a:
Yi=(Prezzo mkt gas - cap prezzo gas)/0,55. Il cap di prezzo al gas è partito da....3/n
Cal-23 #TTF prices have topped 250 €/MWh this week. Everyone agrees that’s crazy, but what does that mean?
Some have suggested to cap the price, i.e. set an administrative price cap on the European wholesale market for gas. What would happen then?
Some have suggested to cap the price, i.e. set an administrative price cap on the European wholesale market for gas. What would happen then?
First, supply.
North-West European gas markets have been decoupled from the world market around April.
Russian supply does not respond to prices, Norwegian supply is running at full capacity, and so are LNG terminals. We are an island. And will remain one well into 2023.
North-West European gas markets have been decoupled from the world market around April.
Russian supply does not respond to prices, Norwegian supply is running at full capacity, and so are LNG terminals. We are an island. And will remain one well into 2023.
Second, price formation.
This implies prices are currently set by demand. That means, prices rise until demand is reduced enough to match whatever supply is there.
This implies prices are currently set by demand. That means, prices rise until demand is reduced enough to match whatever supply is there.
A historical theme that has surfaced from time to time with the $QNT community.
"When marketing"
Let's break some down.
Some may scroll past things without realising.
👇 let's begin with @DigitalEU 👇
"When marketing"
Let's break some down.
Some may scroll past things without realising.
👇 let's begin with @DigitalEU 👇
The @BELLA_Programme
Established the @EllaLink_Cable cable
Connecting EU and LATAM
@RedCLARA and @GEANTnews
digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/bella-…
Established the @EllaLink_Cable cable
Connecting EU and LATAM
@RedCLARA and @GEANTnews
digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu/en/news/bella-…
GÉANT and Latin American research and education network RedCLARA has signed an Indefeasible Right of Use (IRU) contract with EllaLink for spectrum on its subsea cable system linking Europe to Latin America.
Not a believer in geopolitical coincidence. Take natgas. In 2022, flows reduced exactly by the amount the EU managed to increase LNG imp (24bcm). The better than expected storage fills in the EU may made the Kremlin decide to slow deliveries down by 12bcm (NS1).
#TTF @Alpen_R
#TTF @Alpen_R
Here is the EU storage fill in %. It's on track to be 80% filled by August which would likely reduce some risk premium for the winter of TTF. That is unlikely in the best interest of the Kremlin while the war continues.
#TTF
#TTF
We think WINGAS was not recently really receiving much #natgas from #Gazprom. Which means these sanctions may be more symbolic than anything else, especially for the summer. The sanctioning of EuRoPol Gaz could prove to be problematic for the winter. 1/3
A big deal for #TTF?
Today, Ukrainian Transit Operator OGTSU annouced force majeure on gas deliveries from Russia to Slovakia (Velké entry point) due to damages of facilities in occupied territory which cannot be accessed for repairs.
1/3
tsoua.com/news/diyi-okup…
Today, Ukrainian Transit Operator OGTSU annouced force majeure on gas deliveries from Russia to Slovakia (Velké entry point) due to damages of facilities in occupied territory which cannot be accessed for repairs.
1/3
tsoua.com/news/diyi-okup…
Pro memoria: Russia delivers through 3 major pipeline systems & in the form of LNG by sea.
The pipeline via Ukraine has a capacity of up to 40bcm of which 1/3 of current gas transits via Ukraine is reported to be down now (32.6mcm/d).
2/3
The pipeline via Ukraine has a capacity of up to 40bcm of which 1/3 of current gas transits via Ukraine is reported to be down now (32.6mcm/d).
2/3
Our view:
- Yamal -88% YTD due to "unfriendly state" decision (GER Mallnow at zero too);
- Velké: 6.2bcm YTD, 130days x 32.6mcm/d = 4.2bcm -> 4.2/6.2 = 68% - not 33% - affected.
Ceteris paribus, EU must replace 68cm annualised to match 133bcm deliveries in 2021 by R (ex LNG)
- Yamal -88% YTD due to "unfriendly state" decision (GER Mallnow at zero too);
- Velké: 6.2bcm YTD, 130days x 32.6mcm/d = 4.2bcm -> 4.2/6.2 = 68% - not 33% - affected.
Ceteris paribus, EU must replace 68cm annualised to match 133bcm deliveries in 2021 by R (ex LNG)
In 2021, Europe imported ~158 Bcm of Russian #natgas.
By 2027, that figure is (supposedly) going to be 0 Bcm.
How do the Europeans get that done? Time for a 🧵
By 2027, that figure is (supposedly) going to be 0 Bcm.
How do the Europeans get that done? Time for a 🧵
1/n Firstly, how does Europe plan to move away from Russian gas?
1. Moar US #LNG.
2. Increased energy efficiency.
3. More renewable energy deployment.
4. Healthy doses of optimism and idealism.
See @EU_Commission statement below.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
1. Moar US #LNG.
2. Increased energy efficiency.
3. More renewable energy deployment.
4. Healthy doses of optimism and idealism.
See @EU_Commission statement below.
ec.europa.eu/commission/pre…
2/n Specifically, within the EU's statement is the commitment to increase LNG imports from the US by:
15 Bcm in 2022
50 Bcm by [2027]
Seems pretty doable? Until you actually dig into it.
15 Bcm in 2022
50 Bcm by [2027]
Seems pretty doable? Until you actually dig into it.
