Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #turnout
Most recents (4)
#FrenchElections2022: Le Pen won the majority in overseas French colonies tt voted for Macron in 2017. Midday #turnout was estimated at 26.41%, almost 2 points less than the noon turnout in the vote 5 years ago. Most youngsters expected to boycott the elections: bad for Macron.
Most French citizens look for what the new President will offer domestically (jobs, health care, retirement, immigration, salaries...). So spare yourself the anti and pro #Russia stupidity and foreign policy narrative when you have no clue about #franceelections criteria.
So why I think the #GE2019 is really not done yet. A short thread. The summary: I think a hung parliament is still a very likely and a desirable outcome for the UK. I first present some evidence on the former, and then my view on the desirability on the latter. #Brexit
1. Most opinion polls now point to a #Cons maj, including yesterday's @YouGov MRP. MRP is great in the tool box, but still relies on raw polling data. Here, bit.ly/2q0iSFW, I argue here that YouGov samples for BES do appear structurally different and potentially biased 
2. Opinion polls are still mostly conducted at national level, ignoring constituency-level factors. My PhD student @EleAla shows that in UK, turnout tends to be systematically lower the "safer" a seat is. And this effect is increasing in the poll national lead of the incumbent..
1/🚨Mike Pence is on a voter suppression tour this week.
He's stumping alongside Brian Kemp in Georgia, who's being sued for purging 700K voters from the rolls.
Tomorrow, he campaigns in Kansas for Kris Kobach, with whom he led Trump’s discriminatory “Voter Fraud” commission.
He's stumping alongside Brian Kemp in Georgia, who's being sued for purging 700K voters from the rolls.
Tomorrow, he campaigns in Kansas for Kris Kobach, with whom he led Trump’s discriminatory “Voter Fraud” commission.
2/ In Georgia, civil rights groups are suing gubernatorial candidate @BrianKempGA for enforcing the state’s discriminatory “exact match” requirement — impacting mostly Black voters ahead of the midterms. cnn.com/2018/10/12/pol…
3/ In 2017, @mike_pence & @KrisKobach1787 lead a committee to prove @realDonaldTrump’s claim that millions of Black & Latino voters casted ballots illegally in the 2016 election.
Facing multiple lawsuits & no real evidence of fraud, the group disbanded.
hrc.org/blog/hrc-respo…
Facing multiple lawsuits & no real evidence of fraud, the group disbanded.
hrc.org/blog/hrc-respo…
1/ We’ve spent months on the front lines fighting this nomination. From mobilizing for rallies, sharing stories of survival & making thousands on thousands of calls to senators—including 15,000 @HRC members today.
We’ve left nothing on the field in the fight to #StopKavanaugh.
We’ve left nothing on the field in the fight to #StopKavanaugh.
2/ And we have done that because the stakes of this nomination—for LGBTQ people, for women, for people of color, for survivors of sexual assault—could not be any higher. Across the country, we have turned out to say we #BelieveSurvivors and we must #StopKavanaugh.
3/ Unfortunately @SenatorCollins, @Sen_JoeManchin and others in the U.S. Senate made clear today that they will nevertheless back this dangerous, unqualified nominee. This is a slap in the face to Americans everywhere. #StopKavanaugh
