Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #tversky

Most recents (2)

1/ The earnings call season is underway and we started publishing Earnings Call Summaries last week. Coal availability is not looking good. Peabody Energy (#BTU) said they were unable to ship 23% of July month-to-date (thru Jul 28) customer nominations due to #Rail service issues
2/ As a #NaturalGas and #electricity analyst, I don’t really know what the term “customer nominations” means in the #coal business. That makes me ripe for substitution bias, which was discussed in LCMC’s January 2019 NG Research Dinner through #Tversky and #Kahneman’s work.
3/ Irrelevant detail? Here’s a counterpoint: 90% of Best Picture Academy Award (Oscar) "nominations" don't make it to the stage – context matters.
Read 7 tweets
1/6) Da Lei dos "Grandes" aos "Pequenos" Números

A animação mostra a retirada de bolas vermelhas e azuis de uma caixa, com reposição. A medida que as retiradas aumentam, o número de bolas retiradas azuis e vermelhas convergem para 50%. #estatística #economiacomportamental
2/6) Esta convergência entre o nº da amostra e as probabilidades subjacentes ficou conhecida como "Lei dos Grandes Números" (#LGN), e foi provada pelo famoso matemático, e também percursor de uma notável família de matemáticos brilhantes, o suíço Jakob #Bernoulli, no século XVII. Image
3/6) Agora vamos usar a imaginação e parar a animação na retirada da 5ª bola, quando o placar está exatamente 4 x 1 para os azuis. Vamos supor que cada retirada é um jogo, e que as bolas azuis falam, dão entrevistas e parecem super competentes.
Read 7 tweets

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