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As I conduct the postmortem on #PASen, my thoughts keep drifting back to the one realistic shot Dems have at a pickup in 2024 - #TXSen. This is because I see one element of Fetterman's playbook that can be used there to devasting effect. I'll elaborate. (1/x)
Now, nobody should try to replicate him and his unique brand. Nobody can. It was a mixture of a lot of things that came together properly. But one thing that stands out and can be carried over to other races is the ability to brand opposition candidates as unserious. (2/x)
We already know Ted Cruz is deeply unpopular in Texas. That helped Beto a lot and made it close in 2018, but he didn't quite push/leverage Cruz's unpopularity in as aggressive or as joke-y of a way that Fetterman did. This is a guy who vacationed in Cancun, ffs. (3/x)
Good morning! Anything big happen yesterday? lol
Ok here are some thoughts from Texas...
#txlege #tx2020 #txdem #txsen #turntexasblue #progresstexas @ProgressTX
Ok here are some thoughts from Texas...
#txlege #tx2020 #txdem #txsen #turntexasblue #progresstexas @ProgressTX
Biden got 5.2 million votes in Texas, which adds 1.3 mil from 2016. The last three presidential margins here:
2012 = 12 points
2016 = 9 points
2020 = 6 points
The revolution will not happen overnight, but it will happen over time.
2012 = 12 points
2016 = 9 points
2020 = 6 points
The revolution will not happen overnight, but it will happen over time.
Biden carried Texas urban counties 2.5 mil to 1.5 mil (was 1.95mil to 1.23mil in 2016).
Dems are also neutralizing the suburban stronghold Republicans enjoyed for years; 2.6 million votes were cast and R's lead by 14k overall (they led with 200k in 2012).
@blueactiondems
Dems are also neutralizing the suburban stronghold Republicans enjoyed for years; 2.6 million votes were cast and R's lead by 14k overall (they led with 200k in 2012).
@blueactiondems
Here's what we're watching in Texas:
- Will turnout reach 11 million? 12 million?
- Dems need 9 seats for a majority in the 150-seat legislature
- Dems need 5 seats for a majority in the congressional delegation
#txlege #txdem #txsen #tx2020 #TurnTexasBlue
/1
- Will turnout reach 11 million? 12 million?
- Dems need 9 seats for a majority in the 150-seat legislature
- Dems need 5 seats for a majority in the congressional delegation
#txlege #txdem #txsen #tx2020 #TurnTexasBlue
/1
Key counties to watch in Texas:
Big urban counties are also base Democratic:
Bexar (San Antonio)
Dallas
El Paso
Harris (Houston)
Tarrant (Fort Worth)
Travis (Austin)
/2
Big urban counties are also base Democratic:
Bexar (San Antonio)
Dallas
El Paso
Harris (Houston)
Tarrant (Fort Worth)
Travis (Austin)
/2
The suburban swing counties in Texas are:
DFW area: Collin, Denton, Tarrant
Central Texas: Hays & Williamson
Houston area: Fort Bend
SE Texas: Jefferson
Coastal: Nueces
/3
DFW area: Collin, Denton, Tarrant
Central Texas: Hays & Williamson
Houston area: Fort Bend
SE Texas: Jefferson
Coastal: Nueces
/3
A bit reminiscent of Cruz's "Showing the Bleep Up" troll of O'Rourke in '18, which unfortunately no longer lives online
>
Mary Jennings Hegar (MJ) is an American politician, United States Air Force veteran, and teacher. In 2017, she published the memoir “Shoot Like a Girl” which describes her service in Afghanistan.She also sued the U.S. Air Force to remove the Combat Exclusion Policy. #TXsen 
“We must create a public option to make Medicare available for all those who want it. The best health care I’ve ever had was when I was on military-provided Tricare, similar to Medicare, and I believe that kind of high-quality care should be made available to all Americans.” 2/20
Of course he did: Sen. @JohnCornyn runs TV ad touting his support of DREAM Act despite record of voting against it.
sacurrent.com/the-daily/arch… #TXSen
sacurrent.com/the-daily/arch… #TXSen
Ad: "And while Senator @JohnCornyn is in favor of secure borders, he firmly supports the legalization of Dreamers."
Reality: "Although Cornyn voted for the DREAM Act in 2003, he subsequently voted to block its passage ... once in 2007 and again in 2010." #TXSen
Reality: "Although Cornyn voted for the DREAM Act in 2003, he subsequently voted to block its passage ... once in 2007 and again in 2010." #TXSen
.@AmericasVoice founder @FrankSharry: "@JohnCornyn’s claim that he strongly supports the legalization of Dreamers is a bald-faced lie. When you look up the phrase 'two-faced politician,' you’ll find a photo of John Cornyn." #TXSen
AND WE’RE LIVE. This morning we released the bulk of the 2020 @TexasTribune Festival program. More than 250 speakers. More than 100 sessions. 30 thought-provoking days. And it’s virtual, so you don’t have to leave your comfiest chair texastribune.org/festival
#txlege #TribFest20
#txlege #TribFest20
@TexasTribune Back in June — a million years ago in pandemic time — we hinted at the plan: a mix of live and pre-recorded programs, some free and some ticketed, some viewable one-time only and some on demand, mostly video but a good bit of audio
texastribune.org/festival
#txlege #TribFest20
texastribune.org/festival
#txlege #TribFest20
@TexasTribune Carefully curated interviews and panels, all streamed on your favorite device, exploring the impact of the year’s crises on the elections, #txlege, public and higher ed, the economy, criminal justice, energy, health care, citeis, rural and more
texastribune.org/festival
#TribFest20
texastribune.org/festival
#TribFest20
With 53% of polling locations reporting, MJ Hegar was ahead of Royce West 52% to 48% in the Democratic runoff to challenge U.S. Sen. John Cornyn. bit.ly/2CyznPF
"Votes are still being counted — we don't want to get ahead of ourselves," Hegar told supporters shortly before 9:30 p.m.
West and his campaign, meanwhile, said the runoff was still too close to call and that they expected it to come down to about 10,000 votes.
Watch results here: bit.ly/2CByPZe #txsen #tx2020
Watch results here: bit.ly/2CByPZe #txsen #tx2020
The polls are closed in Texas, folks.
Bookmark our results page to follow along: bit.ly/2CByPZe
#tx2020 #txsen #txlege
Bookmark our results page to follow along: bit.ly/2CByPZe
#tx2020 #txsen #txlege
Reminder: Results from the Secretary of State tonight will not include mail-in ballots accepted after Election Day.
Note: *Polls in El Paso and Hudspeth Counties are still open until 7 p.m. MT.*
Watch here as results begin to roll in: bit.ly/2CByPZe
Watch here as results begin to roll in: bit.ly/2CByPZe
Why is @RoyceWestTX best person to challenge @JohnCornyn in November?
West says ability to bring people together. Points to his record & endorsements.
#txlege #TXSEN
West says ability to bring people together. Points to his record & endorsements.
#txlege #TXSEN
"Gotta have person who can bring people together," @RoyceWestTX says, pointing to diverse endorsements, which include (nearly?) all of the other candidates who ran for Senate but lost in the primary.
#txlege #TXSEN
#txlege #TXSEN
New: @JohnCornyn campaign launching radio ad buy that contrasts @mjhegar w/ "consistently liberal" @RoyceWestTX in Democratic primary runoff static.texastribune.org/media/files/0f… #TXSEN
Cornyn campaign says buy is "nearly" six figures, running today through runoff in six markets: Austin, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Harlingen and Beaumont
Hegar responds:
SHOT: GOP Senate sneaks a $170 BILLION dollar tax break for real estate developers into the #coronavirus relief bill meant to help struggling Americans.
CHASER: The Real Estate Roundtable, the group pushing the tax break, gave GOP Senators more than $70,000. #COVID19
CHASER: The Real Estate Roundtable, the group pushing the tax break, gave GOP Senators more than $70,000. #COVID19
COLLINS: @SenatorCollins’ campaign committee took $11,500 in contributions from The Real Estate Roundtable PAC. #MESen americanbridgepac.org/after-receivin…
MCCONNELL: @senatemajldr took $17,500 from The Real Estate Roundtable over the course of his long career. #KYSen americanbridgepac.org/after-receivin…
🗳🇺🇸1. LA PREVIA
El #SuperTuesday es la quinta gran cita de estas primarias demócratas tras Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada y South Carolina. Y pese a que esos cuatro concursos se celebraron a lo largo del mes de febrero, hoy hay primarias en CATORCE estados.
Hay mucho en juego. 👇🏼
El #SuperTuesday es la quinta gran cita de estas primarias demócratas tras Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada y South Carolina. Y pese a que esos cuatro concursos se celebraron a lo largo del mes de febrero, hoy hay primarias en CATORCE estados.
Hay mucho en juego. 👇🏼
🗳🇺🇸2. Los acontecimientos de los últimos días nos han dejado con cuatro grandes candidatos que se disputarán el mayor número de delegados en este #SuperTuesday:
∙ Bernie Sanders
∙ Joe Biden
∙ Elizabeth Warren
∙ Mike Bloomberg
∙ Bernie Sanders
∙ Joe Biden
∙ Elizabeth Warren
∙ Mike Bloomberg
🗳🇺🇸3. BERNIE SANDERS
Fortalezas en este #SuperTuesday:
∙ Apoyo entre jóvenes
∙ Apoyo entre latinos
∙ Apoyo entre blancos de clase trabajadora, especialmente en el Midwest
∙ Arrasa en las urbes
Debilidades:
∙ Apoyo entre negros
∙ Apoyo entre blancos de suburbs (ricos)
Fortalezas en este #SuperTuesday:
∙ Apoyo entre jóvenes
∙ Apoyo entre latinos
∙ Apoyo entre blancos de clase trabajadora, especialmente en el Midwest
∙ Arrasa en las urbes
Debilidades:
∙ Apoyo entre negros
∙ Apoyo entre blancos de suburbs (ricos)
🗳️ It's #SuperTuesday. Here’s a rundown of the top races you need to watch today 👇
bgovgo.com/Oy0hUVH
bgovgo.com/Oy0hUVH
Alabama #ALSen 👇
@jeffsessions faces competition for his former seat from @TTuberville. Sessions and fellow competitor @RepByrne have run ads portraying Tuberville as weak on illegal immigration.
If no one receives a majority, a runoff between the top two will be held March 31
@jeffsessions faces competition for his former seat from @TTuberville. Sessions and fellow competitor @RepByrne have run ads portraying Tuberville as weak on illegal immigration.
If no one receives a majority, a runoff between the top two will be held March 31
@jeffsessions @TTuberville @RepByrne Democrat @SenDougJones, who has minor primary opposition in the #ALSen race, is the most politically vulnerable senator in either party.
🚨TODAY IS THE LAST DAY YOU CAN VOTE EARLY IN TEXAS🚨
Here's everything you need to know about voting in Texas. Follow this thread for resources + guides + more.
RT to help inform a friend!
#txlege #tx2020 #TexasPrimary #SuperTuesday bit.ly/2uuXlaZ
Here's everything you need to know about voting in Texas. Follow this thread for resources + guides + more.
RT to help inform a friend!
#txlege #tx2020 #TexasPrimary #SuperTuesday bit.ly/2uuXlaZ
2/ Put in your address here and we’ll show you the races you can vote in.
All Texans’ ballots will include the statewide races, but the rest of the races on there will be determined by where you live!
bit.ly/39Dy9xU
All Texans’ ballots will include the statewide races, but the rest of the races on there will be determined by where you live!
bit.ly/39Dy9xU
3/ This guide will also help you learn what you need to know about showing up to the polls, including what to bring with you (and what not to wear). bit.ly/39Dy9xU
🚨EARLY VOTING IN THE TEXAS PRIMARY ENDS FRIDAY 🚨
Check out this thread to find everything you need to feel ready to vote. RT to share with a friend who could use it!
#txlege #tx2020 #TexasPrimary bit.ly/2uuXlaZ
Check out this thread to find everything you need to feel ready to vote. RT to share with a friend who could use it!
#txlege #tx2020 #TexasPrimary bit.ly/2uuXlaZ
2/ If you're wondering which races you get to participate in, you can input your address here to find out.
We've got links to information on your local elections and the dates you should be keeping track of. bit.ly/39Dy9xU
We've got links to information on your local elections and the dates you should be keeping track of. bit.ly/39Dy9xU
3/ This guide will also help you learn what you need to know about showing up to the polls, including what to bring with you (and what not to wear). bit.ly/39Dy9xU
1/ A crowded pool of Democrats are vying to unseat Republican U.S. Sen. John Cornyn — but many people don’t know who they are.
Tonight you can catch 11 of these candidates taking the debate stage to discuss where they stand on key issues. #tx2020 #txsen bit.ly/2P7vO6t
Tonight you can catch 11 of these candidates taking the debate stage to discuss where they stand on key issues. #tx2020 #txsen bit.ly/2P7vO6t
2/ To help voters make sense of the race, we talked to the top candidates, those who raised at least $100,000 for their campaigns or registered at least 3% support in an October 2019 University of Texas/Texas Tribune Poll. bit.ly/2P3uAJF
3/ We asked the candidates a series of simple questions designed to help Democratic primary voters understand their political and policy-based differences. bit.ly/2P3uAJF
Big news out of Texas today for efforts to advance criminal legal reform. Dem #TXSen candidate @cristinafortx backs the #JusticeGuarantee —>
Here's a thread from @cristinafortx about what she's up to with the #JusticeGuarantee and why she's backing it. As more politicians acknowledge the problems in our system, we need more candidates like Cristina who also talk about the changes needed to reverse those problems.
So great to see support like this. Change only happens when candidates make clear what’s wrong, why they know it’s wrong, and what they’re going to do to work toward ending those problems. When they do that, voters listen.
THREAD: We're keeping track of the Democrats and progressives who have filed to be on the ballot for the 2020 primary! Here's our list so far ⬇️
#txlege #txsen #2020Election
progresstexas.org/blog/building-…
#txlege #txsen #2020Election
progresstexas.org/blog/building-…
2/ TX has been trending Democratic for years, and it’s because of the work of organizers & advocates. Because of them, 2020 is a possible tipping point!
We can turn TX blue, but it won’t happen without even more work from even more progressives. #txlege #txsen #2020Election
We can turn TX blue, but it won’t happen without even more work from even more progressives. #txlege #txsen #2020Election
3/ Up first, those who have filed for U.S. Congress:
TX-10 (#ATX): @MikeSiegelTX
TX-23 (#Helotes): Efrain V. Valdez
TX-31 (#RoundRock): @donnaimamTX
#txlege #txsen #2020Election
TX-10 (#ATX): @MikeSiegelTX
TX-23 (#Helotes): Efrain V. Valdez
TX-31 (#RoundRock): @donnaimamTX
#txlege #txsen #2020Election
Senate Republicans and @realDonaldTrump continue to attack the Affordable Care Act. Now the Trump administration is trying to strike the entire ACA down. These Republican senators (all are up for re-election) are not taking your access to health care seriously:
David Perdue (R-GA), Thom Tillis (R-NC), and Cory Gardner (R-CO) have voted over and over again to risk protections for pre-existing conditions and make health care coverage more expensive. #gasen #ncsen #cosen
John Cornyn (R-TX) has voted over and over again to risk protections for pre-existing conditions and make health care coverage more expensive. And don’t forget, Cornyn was in charge of rounding up the votes to dismantle the ACA in 2017. #txsen
1/ @BetoORourke is reportedly running for president.
From a “little-known” El Paso congressman to the name on every 2020 Democratic watch list, the past two years have been a ride.
bit.ly/2UHTsag
From a “little-known” El Paso congressman to the name on every 2020 Democratic watch list, the past two years have been a ride.
bit.ly/2UHTsag
2/ Beto O’Rourke’s path to Democratic political superstardom began in early 2017, when he first seemed interested in challenging @tedcruz.
He was a “little-known challenger” who’d face “steep odds” if he jumped into the race. bit.ly/2HjGSeG
He was a “little-known challenger” who’d face “steep odds” if he jumped into the race. bit.ly/2HjGSeG
3/ Beto O’Rourke proved to be a savvy campaigner, taking the #txsen race to every county in the state.
It was unconventional, to say the least. bit.ly/2UAYLsh
It was unconventional, to say the least. bit.ly/2UAYLsh
A bunch of handwringing debate about Beto O'Rourke's performance in the smaller Texas counties - where his 26.6% of the vote underperformed Bill White's 32.4% but bettered Wendy Davis' all-time D low of 22.6%. #txlege 1/
And there is no question that doing better in rural Texas would have helped O'Rourke close the gap with Ted Cruz. But it's important to remember that the smaller counties only contribute around 21% of the vote, so the impact of "underperformance" can be exaggerated. #txlege 2/
Even if O'Rourke had won the same percentage of the vote in the smaller counties as Bill White, he still would have come up short (a lot closer to be sure but still short). #txlege 3/
If you're watching election results tonight, here's a breakdown of what I'm going to be watching for in the race for Congress as the numbers come in -->
Here are the magic numbers to keep in mind tonight:
Democrats need to flip 23 SEATS in order to win back the House.
Democrats need to flip 2 SEATS in order to win back the Senate.
Democrats need to flip 23 SEATS in order to win back the House.
Democrats need to flip 2 SEATS in order to win back the Senate.
The first exit polls will land at 5:00pm so we'll have some ideas about makeup of the electorate compared to previous years, etc. The first actual races close at 6:00pm: KY-6 will be the one to watch, with an eye on IN-9, but we won't read *too* much into these.
1/ THREAD: We asked @TedCruz, @BetoORourke and @NealDikeman 17 policy questions we crowdsourced from young Texans.
Here’s what they said to each one.
#tx2018 #txsen #MidtermElections
trib.it/1BW
Here’s what they said to each one.
#tx2018 #txsen #MidtermElections
trib.it/1BW
2/ Should the state or federal government increase the minimum wage?
@BetoORourke: Yes
@NealDikeman: No
@TedCruz: No
trib.it/1BW
@BetoORourke: Yes
@NealDikeman: No
@TedCruz: No
trib.it/1BW
3/ How should the government help Texans build wealth through homeownership?
@BetoORourke said "expand existing home-buyer assistance programs that help with down payments and mortgage loans." trib.it/1BW
@BetoORourke said "expand existing home-buyer assistance programs that help with down payments and mortgage loans." trib.it/1BW
