Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #uschina

Most recents (2)

@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum I really liked the piece. I’m particular I liked your characterisation of #DragonBear as a “temporary asymmetric relationship”. But some questions too:
@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 1) is the main common denominator of #Dragonbear really the exclusion of #US & #EU from #Eurasia (all very Mackinder!)? Are #China’s & #Russia’s #geopolitics the same? Does not Russia aim to exclude while China aims to bridge?
@vtchakarova @amlivemon @Halsrethink @LibrariumViews @JamesGRickards @gbponz @BaldingsWorld @C_Barraud @BcnFox @MacaesBruno @chigrl @RobertMCutler @GrayConnolly @DrPippaM @Kostian_V @wangxiangweihk @IndoPac_Info @michaeltanchum 2) Does #China really need #Russia know how in #diplomacy & #defence? I spent 5 years dealing with Chinese diplomacy, and it has nothing to learn from Russia. I suspect the day’s when China learnt from Russian military and military technology are also long gone
Read 12 tweets
1/3
#US officially increased tariff from 10% to 25% on $200bn Chinese goods that will be exported from #China beginning today (May 10) i.e. goods that are currently on their way to the US will still be subject to the previous 10% rate
2/3
√ In practice then, new tariff will become effective in a few weeks, which opens an unofficial window to continue negotiations. Talks will continue today

√ China will retaliate and US will start the process (c.3 months) of imposing the remaining $300bn of goods at 25%
3/3
√ Assuming no #USChina deal and with current higher tariffs remaining in place, the negative impact on China’s GDP growth would be some 0.5% and some 0.2% on US growth, with just the additional increase in tariffs representing a cost for the US of 0.15% of 2018 US GDP
Read 3 tweets

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