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Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 11th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too! Image
A trend shift in the dollar will add more confirmation to the Risk-On regime, which has been brewing under the surface for over a month now. Market Illiquidity improving is supporting the narrative of a possible shift. This really comes down to how the major components trade... Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR was able to blow through parity and get a good squeeze going in the last two days. We still have some distance to momo, a failure to break there will give very low confidence of a DXY trend shift sticking.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
Read 5 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 10th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact. Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

EUR is back under parity this morning ahead of US CPI. For the time, we're still holding above mid-VAMP, but parity has been the key for quite some time now. If we can't hold it post-print, watch for lower VAMP.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Despite the Yen edging off its lows, we're still under the BoJ initial intervention level. Can we get back above and squeeze some shorts or will this shit the bed post CPI? Trend remains🐻

$JPYUSD #JPYUSD $USDJPY #USDJPY Image
Read 4 tweets
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 9th, 2022

$DXY #DXY

The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar". Image
$EUR (largest $DXY component)

The EUR is still stuck around parity as bulls and bears fight for dominance. We are at upper VAMP so some significant momentum is going to need to appear quickly as this has almost 300bps of short-term downside risk.

$EURUSD #EURUSD #USDEUR $USDEUR Image
$JPY (2nd largest $DXY component)

Similarly to the EUR, this is still unable to get above and run from its resistance level, with this one being the BoJ wall. Lower VAMP has yet to really lift off lows...

$JPYUSD #JPYUSD $USDJPY #USDJPY Image
Read 4 tweets

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