Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #usdjpy
Most recents (24)
Altın ın karşılığı faiz demektir. Buradaki mevzu altın da tam değil faizdir. Faize girmeye çalışan bir sürü para var ve faiz aşağı gelirse borsalar negatif etkilenir sağ sol istemsiz bozulur.
FED diyor ki; faizler düşerse dünyada korku oluşur.
Faiz diyerek bunun önüne geçiyor.
FED diyor ki; faizler düşerse dünyada korku oluşur.
Faiz diyerek bunun önüne geçiyor.
Şöyle düşün faiz kendiliğinden aşağı gelirse bu korku sebebi olabilir. Ama FED yumuşak diye olursa coşku sebebi olur.
İşte tam faizler aşağı düşecek faiz diyor korkunun önüne geçiyor. Normalde nasıldır ?
Faiz korkuda düşer ALTIN çıkar.
İşte tam faizler aşağı düşecek faiz diyor korkunun önüne geçiyor. Normalde nasıldır ?
Faiz korkuda düşer ALTIN çıkar.
Adamlar diyor ki; faizler düşüyor korku sebebi altın korku ile gitmesin piyasalar dünya bunu sorgular hayırdır diye..
Ben yumuşarsam giden gitsin ama buna FED müsaade etti deriz.
Ben yumuşarsam giden gitsin ama buna FED müsaade etti deriz.
Bakın arkadaşlar sizlere strateji öğretmekten perişan oldum. Bir daha anlatacağım sonra daha anlatmam.
#USDJPY diyelim ki satış oynadın ekim ayında tamam mı ? Ekim ayında #USDJPY kaçtı ? 144 civarı doğru muyum ?
#USDJPY diyelim ki satış oynadın ekim ayında tamam mı ? Ekim ayında #USDJPY kaçtı ? 144 civarı doğru muyum ?
Ekim ayında #EUR kaçtı ? 1.01 tamam mı ?
Hesap yapıyoruz. Ekim ayında #EURJPY kaçtı ?
Önce hesaplanışı EURJPY nin..
JPY X EUR = EURJPY 144 X 1.01 = EURJPY 145
Sen USDJPY shortladın ya ! Bunu shortlarken diyelim ki
0.10 sattın. Bu ABD faizde ısrar ediyor mu ? Etsin.
Hesap yapıyoruz. Ekim ayında #EURJPY kaçtı ?
Önce hesaplanışı EURJPY nin..
JPY X EUR = EURJPY 144 X 1.01 = EURJPY 145
Sen USDJPY shortladın ya ! Bunu shortlarken diyelim ki
0.10 sattın. Bu ABD faizde ısrar ediyor mu ? Etsin.
Sen USDJPY satarken EURJPY yi aynı oranda alırsan ne olur ? EUR yukarı gittikçe orada kar yaparsın.
Örnek; JPY 144 X EUR 1.01 = EURJPY 145
Şu an değerler ne ? USDJPY 135 EURJPY 148 :))
Parite etkisi ile yukarı gitti hem de senin elindeki
usdjpy kar yazdı.
Örnek; JPY 144 X EUR 1.01 = EURJPY 145
Şu an değerler ne ? USDJPY 135 EURJPY 148 :))
Parite etkisi ile yukarı gitti hem de senin elindeki
usdjpy kar yazdı.
#MarketReport 2023/04
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
1) In this thread, I'll cover comparative performance of
📌 #Stock Indices
📌 #Exchange Rates
📌 Treasury #Bills and Government #Bonds
both for April and since pandemic.
Aslında değiller, ben sana grafiğini atayım.
Elleri çok rahat, çünkü; hacimsiz bırakıp o hacmi kriptolara kaydırıyorlar. Elleri rahat derken onlar 2000 300 puan vb nin hesabını yapmazlar.
Elleri çok rahat, çünkü; hacimsiz bırakıp o hacmi kriptolara kaydırıyorlar. Elleri rahat derken onlar 2000 300 puan vb nin hesabını yapmazlar.
#SP500 GÜNLÜK
Tam bir aydır kapalı gibidir. Marjlar açık problem yok adamlara, seviyeler grafikte yazıyor. Bunlar bu haftayı bir atlatabilseler kafaları rahatlar. Bunlar ALTIN da problem yaşıyorlar. Piyasayı arka planda fonluyorlar ama altını tuta tuta.
Tam bir aydır kapalı gibidir. Marjlar açık problem yok adamlara, seviyeler grafikte yazıyor. Bunlar bu haftayı bir atlatabilseler kafaları rahatlar. Bunlar ALTIN da problem yaşıyorlar. Piyasayı arka planda fonluyorlar ama altını tuta tuta.
Bunlar EUR yukarı alıyorlar, DXY aşağı veriyorlar ama, ALTIN durgun kalsın istiyorlar. Halbuki ALTIN 2015 üstü bir kalsa ortamı da yakalasa yürür.
3.4R target? LETS FIND OUT 🎲🎲
*Nothing I share is financial advice*
*Nothing I share is financial advice*
just came back from the gym so heres the update, we were discussing it in the discord
#USDJPY extending TP for 6.6R on m1 entry, will add on m5 bos if we get it for another 2R
*Nothing I share is financial advice*
*Nothing I share is financial advice*
🚀Degen Strategy🚀
💰How I turned $2048 into $100,000 in 1 month, and NOT losing it all back.
👉 No bullshit, at the end of the thread, there is a link for you guys to verify trade record on @Myfxbook
🆘This is NOT AN EASY STRATEGY.🆘
#forex #crypto
💰How I turned $2048 into $100,000 in 1 month, and NOT losing it all back.
👉 No bullshit, at the end of the thread, there is a link for you guys to verify trade record on @Myfxbook
🆘This is NOT AN EASY STRATEGY.🆘
#forex #crypto
1⃣ A High Conviction View.
$DXY (USD Index) was trading around 105, a hard support, which if it holds, I have high conviction it will bounce to 110 in a short time, aka, bullish continuation bias.
With that view, I chose to short #EURUSD and Long #USDJPY
$DXY (USD Index) was trading around 105, a hard support, which if it holds, I have high conviction it will bounce to 110 in a short time, aka, bullish continuation bias.
With that view, I chose to short #EURUSD and Long #USDJPY
2⃣ Money Management (MM) is 🔑
I deposited $2048 on 08.08.2022, with that fund, I can trade up to 100 lot #EURUSD. But my trade size is only 0.1 to 0.5 lot.
First trade was a loss, neverminded, I tried again the next day and started making some small wins.
I deposited $2048 on 08.08.2022, with that fund, I can trade up to 100 lot #EURUSD. But my trade size is only 0.1 to 0.5 lot.
First trade was a loss, neverminded, I tried again the next day and started making some small wins.
Son üç senede dünyada olay bakımından ne yaşandıysa hepsini önceden yazdım ve hepsi de dönüm noktasıydı hane halkları için.. Piyasa ? Onları da yazdım, hepsi de rakamsal geldi. Belgelerim tek tek.
Ama; neyi fark ettim ve buradan uzaklaştım.!
Ama; neyi fark ettim ve buradan uzaklaştım.!
Birden fazla etken var aslında ama, bir kaçını yazayım.
1- Ekonomide fiyatlar bir yerden bir yere geliyor, bu konuda bilirkişi görünen insanlar, bunun üstüne yorum yapıyor, olur olmaz diyor ve herkes şak şak yapıyor.
Yani; ya eleştireceksin, ya da; savunacaksın.
1- Ekonomide fiyatlar bir yerden bir yere geliyor, bu konuda bilirkişi görünen insanlar, bunun üstüne yorum yapıyor, olur olmaz diyor ve herkes şak şak yapıyor.
Yani; ya eleştireceksin, ya da; savunacaksın.
Bu benim yapıma ters ben bir kitleye oynayamam.
Böyle kişiler sadece eleştiri veya savunmadan prim yapıyorlar. Ben böyle olamam, çünkü; asıl işimi ihmal etmiş olurum.
2- Bu parasal genişlemeler de kriptolar çok ön plana
çıktı ve piyasalar çok hızlandı.
Böyle kişiler sadece eleştiri veya savunmadan prim yapıyorlar. Ben böyle olamam, çünkü; asıl işimi ihmal etmiş olurum.
2- Bu parasal genişlemeler de kriptolar çok ön plana
çıktı ve piyasalar çok hızlandı.
#SP500 AYLIK GRAFİK.
Bir arkadaş sormuş SP500 çıkıyor, her yükselişi satış fırsatı görmeye devam mı demiş. Arkadaşım; ben
günü birlik kararlar değiştirmem. Benim için 300 500 puanın önemi yoktur. Ben dönen filmleri takip ederim.
Bu adamlar istesin dünyayı aptala çevirirler.
Bir arkadaş sormuş SP500 çıkıyor, her yükselişi satış fırsatı görmeye devam mı demiş. Arkadaşım; ben
günü birlik kararlar değiştirmem. Benim için 300 500 puanın önemi yoktur. Ben dönen filmleri takip ederim.
Bu adamlar istesin dünyayı aptala çevirirler.
Bu adamlar niçin enflasyon yapıyorlar sanıyorsunuz ?
Bunu Avrupa üstünden de anlattım. Borsalar üstünden de anlattım. Sen istersen düşüşleri alım fırsatı gör!
O da doğru pozisyondur. Çünkü; bu adamlar destekler borsalarını ! Ama; yükselişi satış fırsatı gören de doğru pozisyonda
Bunu Avrupa üstünden de anlattım. Borsalar üstünden de anlattım. Sen istersen düşüşleri alım fırsatı gör!
O da doğru pozisyondur. Çünkü; bu adamlar destekler borsalarını ! Ama; yükselişi satış fırsatı gören de doğru pozisyonda
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 11th, 2022
$DXY #DXY
Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too!
$DXY #DXY
Huge moves happening, some that require attention. Starting with the dollar, we saw this blow through momo yesterday and continue to fall this morning. To get a solid trend shift, we're going to need to see some components shift too!
A trend shift in the dollar will add more confirmation to the Risk-On regime, which has been brewing under the surface for over a month now. Market Illiquidity improving is supporting the narrative of a possible shift. This really comes down to how the major components trade...
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 10th, 2022
$DXY #DXY
The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact.
$DXY #DXY
The dollar is holding a bid ahead of the CPI print today. Remember, it's bullish trend until it isn't. Lower VAMP AND momo MUST hold for the trend to remain intact.
Daily Currency 🧵- Nov 9th, 2022
$DXY #DXY
The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar".
$DXY #DXY
The dollar seems to continue to hold above momo and lower VAMP. These levels would need to break before we can talk about a confirmed dollar top / "peak dollar".
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Oct 31, 2022
#StockMarket #DowJones best month since 1976
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After technical oversold and very negative sentiment in Sep month, #StockMarket was finally able to reverse direction this month. $DJIA had the best month since 1976 (+14%). $NDX was underperformed (5%) compared to $SPX (8.8%), $RUT(11%).
2. Let's look at US 10Y #Bond Yield price action. It was very volatile and tested 4.3% Jun'08 high before reversing -9.8% to the end of the month. This month it finished up 5.7%. RSI did not make new high at Oct 21 when it reached peak 4.33% (bearish reversal)
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
DISCLAIMER : This is for educational purpose and not financial advise.
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
Monthly market analysis Sep 30, 2022
#StockMarket Worst week, worst month, and worst quarter of the year since Financial crisis and dot-com bubble. Why it happened?
Let's look at more closely 🧵👇
1. After making reversal at H/S neckline in early Aug, US 10Y Yield #bond broke out from Feb'11 high 3.73% and have held up strongly for about a week. This month, yield has gone up +20%, bad for risk and long duration assets
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
2. US 02Y Yield #bond broke out resistance 3.7% and past 4% strongly after Fed Reserve hawkish announcement and never look back. This month yield has gone up more than +22%
#StockMarket
#StockMarket
Hello everyone,
1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:
Start with the video below first.
1/23 This thread is dedicated to @SantiagoAuFund - Dollar Milkshake Theory.
I thought it's a good idea to break down the "ingredients" in DXY milkshake, but from TA only perspective.
Let's dive in 🧵👇:
Start with the video below first.
2/23 Good, now that you have watched the video I want to remind everyone that "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" is a THEORY not a certainty that those events will happen and that all #USD scenarios will play out.
Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.
Same thing for my TA breakdown, so take it with a grain of salt.
3/23 So everyone has a clear understanding of the #DXY , here is a quick explanation below:
The U.S. Dollar Index consists of 6 foreign currencies.:
Euro (EUR), JapaneseYen (JPY), BritishPound (GBP), Canadiandollar (CAD), SwedishKrona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF).
The U.S. Dollar Index consists of 6 foreign currencies.:
Euro (EUR), JapaneseYen (JPY), BritishPound (GBP), Canadiandollar (CAD), SwedishKrona (SEK), Swiss Franc (CHF).
First up let me just say, I cannot predict the future...
I can offer 12+ years of market experience & nothing more
The $Dxy has positioned itself for a humongous Bullish move...
Major multi year & even multi decade #Dxy breakouts are happening *Right Now*
Charts Below 📈🧵👇
I can offer 12+ years of market experience & nothing more
The $Dxy has positioned itself for a humongous Bullish move...
Major multi year & even multi decade #Dxy breakouts are happening *Right Now*
Charts Below 📈🧵👇
Lets start by looking at the $Dxy itself (Monthly Chart)
On this time frame we are close to breaking out of a 7 year consolidation (when the 2015 rally stalled out)
This failure to make a low, followed by a break higher, tends to create a large amount of short covering...
On this time frame we are close to breaking out of a 7 year consolidation (when the 2015 rally stalled out)
This failure to make a low, followed by a break higher, tends to create a large amount of short covering...
As shorts close out positions on the breakout & new traders add long positions, explosive moves tend to follow
These are the mechanics behind what some traders refer to as a "Wave 3"
To me it's just mechanics of a successful breakout, but "Wave 3" if it helps understanding...
These are the mechanics behind what some traders refer to as a "Wave 3"
To me it's just mechanics of a successful breakout, but "Wave 3" if it helps understanding...
#USDJPY: Next big trade or just a puzzle?
▪️ In 21st century, USDJPY spiked up >2% when S&P dropped >2% in a wk only on 9 occasions - last wk was one of them - prob of such occurrence <1%
▪️ Last wk $JPY 114.82=>117.29, S&P -2.9%
▪️ Dethrone Long JPY as macro risk-off hedge?
1/9
▪️ In 21st century, USDJPY spiked up >2% when S&P dropped >2% in a wk only on 9 occasions - last wk was one of them - prob of such occurrence <1%
▪️ Last wk $JPY 114.82=>117.29, S&P -2.9%
▪️ Dethrone Long JPY as macro risk-off hedge?
1/9
▪️ Recent S&P drawdown -12.5% since 3 Jan'22 on hawkish Fed & Russian invasion but $JPY +1.0% with drawdown of only 1.4%
▪️ Regime change post Covid?
- Since Mar'20, $JPY vs S&P regression reveals significant -ve beta
- Previous Fed hikes (2004-06, 16-18) also showed low beta
2/9
▪️ Regime change post Covid?
- Since Mar'20, $JPY vs S&P regression reveals significant -ve beta
- Previous Fed hikes (2004-06, 16-18) also showed low beta
2/9
- Post Covid, reduced (3m) correlation b/w USDJPY & S&P (+ve correl => USDJPY ⬆️, S&P ⬆️)
3/9
3/9
#FX/#Rates thru 2016/18 episodes of 'Equity Tantrum' on hawkish Fed: Takeaways
▪️ Short USDJPY best FX trade in both periods
▪️ Short AUDJPY even better
▪️ Short EUR/Long DXY bad idea for risk-off
▪️ Gold/Silver good value here
▪️ Long USDEM not rewarding enuf
▪️ Bonds rally 40bp
▪️ Short USDJPY best FX trade in both periods
▪️ Short AUDJPY even better
▪️ Short EUR/Long DXY bad idea for risk-off
▪️ Gold/Silver good value here
▪️ Long USDEM not rewarding enuf
▪️ Bonds rally 40bp
Dec 2018 Recap:
S&P -11.3% (30 Nov'18 to 3 Jan'19)
2y UST -41bp, 2.78=>2.37
10y UST -43bp, 2.98=>2.55
DXY -1.0%
Oil/WTI +0.30%
BCOM -6.2%
VIX 18=>25 (36 high)
HY OAS +119bp
But Dec'18 episode was late in hiking cycle=>had enough room for a 40bp bond rally. Lets look at 2016
2/7
S&P -11.3% (30 Nov'18 to 3 Jan'19)
2y UST -41bp, 2.78=>2.37
10y UST -43bp, 2.98=>2.55
DXY -1.0%
Oil/WTI +0.30%
BCOM -6.2%
VIX 18=>25 (36 high)
HY OAS +119bp
But Dec'18 episode was late in hiking cycle=>had enough room for a 40bp bond rally. Lets look at 2016
2/7
Jan 2016 Recap:
S&P -10.5% (31 Dec'15 to 11 Feb'16)
2y UST -40bp, 1.05=>0.65
10y UST -61bp, 2.26=>1.65
DXY -3.1%
Oil/WTI -13.5%
BCOM -5.85%
VIX 18=>28 (32 high)
HY OAS +179bp
DXY ⬇️ on higher EUR JPY & CHF
Strong bond rally at start of hiking cycle
2/10 flatter but 5/30 steeper
S&P -10.5% (31 Dec'15 to 11 Feb'16)
2y UST -40bp, 1.05=>0.65
10y UST -61bp, 2.26=>1.65
DXY -3.1%
Oil/WTI -13.5%
BCOM -5.85%
VIX 18=>28 (32 high)
HY OAS +179bp
DXY ⬇️ on higher EUR JPY & CHF
Strong bond rally at start of hiking cycle
2/10 flatter but 5/30 steeper
Forex Live 1/5: FX #options expiries for 14 Apr 10am NY cut
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
There are some sizable ones layered for #EURUSD closer towards 1.1900 but also near current levels, even for tomorrow, so that might attract price action with key resist seen closer towards 1.1990-00 region at the moment
Forex Live 2/5: That said, the dollar looks vulnerable across the board with 10-year #Treasury yields also sitting on the cusp of a soft bottom closer to 1.60%, so there's that to consider.
Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Going over to #USDJPY, that has seen the pair fall below 109.00 - where there are some
Forex Live 3/5: modest and chunky expiries seen this week.
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.
All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Technically speaking, the break below 109.00 also sees the pair likely to push lower to test the 23 March low @ 108.40 so this just adds to the conviction.
All of that ties together with general dollar sentiment and how
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s highlights
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
#EURUSD has surged higher to our recovery target of 1.1950/92 – the 38.2% retracement of the Q1 fall, mid-March highs and 55-day average and our bias remains to look for the rebound to ideally end here.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #USDJPY has broken support from the 23.6% retracement of the Q1 rally at 108.99, which is seen exposing more important support at 108.55/33. Failure to hold this latter area would see a top complete.
Danske Bank 1/4: Tactical FX Views.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
#EURUSD - Has bounced back slightly in line with equities. We remain short, as per our 2021 top trade.
#EURNOK - as a strategic trade we like to sell NOK vs an equal weighted basket of #EUR and USD.
ING Bank 1/4: #USDJPY: What seems a clear run higher for US Treasury yields warns of $USDJPY retesting 111 this week. Failure in the 110.20/50 area would be a surprise. The highlight of the week will be PM Suga’s visit to Washington – the first leader hosted by President Biden.
ING Bank 2/4: Presumably the pandemic will top the list of discussion topics, though China will be keenly listening for any remarks on Taiwan. The visit comes at a time when #USDJPY is far from any sensitive levels, although Japanese exporters will clearly be a lot happier
ING Bank 3/4: than their counterparts in the US. And it would seem a little incongruous for President Biden to try and talk #USDJPY lower.
Credit Suisse 1/5: Today’s #Forex highlights
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
#EURGBP not only maintains a base above .8643/65 but the close above .8574 on Friday has also seen a bullish “reversal week” established to reinforce the likelihood for a deeper recovery to .8732 initially, then .8851/61.
Credit Suisse 2/5: #GBPUSD maintains a bearish “reversal day” to keep the risk lower in its range with supp seen at 1.3641, then 1.3514.
#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
#EURCHF continues to weigh heavily on the bottom of its recent range at 1.1004/1.0994, below which would confirm a top & a correction lower.
Credit Suisse 3/5: #EURUSD continues to struggle to clear its 200-day average at 1.1896 and the current strength stays seen as a temporary and corrective move higher.
KBC Bank 1/4: The big reflation trade took a moment to catch its breath yesterday. Circumstances were ideal with no important data scheduled to trigger abrupt market moves. Equities finished broadly unchanged after erasing earlier losses, both in the EMU and the US.
KBC Bank 2/4: Core bond yields traded choppy and below recent (recovery) highs. The US kicked off its bond sales with 3yr tenor. The auction went smoothly but didn’t impact markets. US Treasuries edged higher at the long end of the curve, sending rates marginally lower driven by
