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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
Did you know that:

A) There is a House GOP bill called 'The Life at Conception Act' (H.R. 1011) - also known as a 'personhood' bill - that would declare life as starting at ‘the moment of fertilization'?

B) Of its 166 co-sponsors, many are running in very close races?

🧵👇 Image
Co-sponsor: TED BUDD

Race: #NCSen

Democratic opponent: CHERI BEASLEY (@CheriBeasleyNC)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/beasley…
Co-sponsor: MIKE GARCIA

Race: #CA27

Democratic opponent: CHRISTY SMITH (@ChristySmithCA)

Donate:
secure.actblue.com/donate/2021_we…
Read 14 tweets
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨

The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣

5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.

3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.

🧵👇 Image
Race: #TX34

Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)

Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores

2020 Margin: Biden +15.7

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente… ImageImage
Race: #CA22

Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)

Republican: Rep. David Valadao

2020 Margin: Biden +13.1

Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe… ImageImage
Read 31 tweets
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
If Dems had kept power (or even if commission were to draw a compact map, example below), they could have easily shored up #VA02 Rep. Elaine Luria (D) w/ Norfolk & #VA07 Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D) w/ Charlottesville, and maybe even made #VA01 Rep. Rob Wittman (R) vulnerable.
But if the commission fails, the VA Supreme Court's direction is unknown. It could easily make #VA07 redder, and perhaps #VA02 too.

In the example below, #VA07 would flip from Biden +1 to Trump +5, #VA02 from Biden +5 to tied. Rs would have a shot at 6R-5D in a Biden +10 state!
Read 5 tweets
Thread of progressive candidates (Updated 9/30) including #NotMeUs and some combo #NotMeUs + #YangGang! These are candidates in competitive races (🔺@GOP ; 🔹Dem; 🌻Green ▫️other Independent) & I’ll be adding to (sometimes editing) thread #Election2020 
⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
@Bradshaw2020🔹is an amazing candidate who won a shocking victory @USSenate primary #TN! Gen Against @BillHagertyTN🔺! Endorsed by @BernieSanders! #NotMeUs #Election2020 
📌Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/marquit…
📌Volunteer: mobilize.us/bradshawforsen…
📌Website: marquitabradshaw.com
Read 38 tweets
We have 44 days until the general election! This thread will have a list of vetted candidates who support Medicare For All & a Green New Deal! Let's flip the Senate Progressive & Expand the Squad in Congress! Please Donate or Volunteer! #FlipTheSenate #ExpandTheSquad

⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️
.@paulajean2020 is running for Senate in WV against Shelley Moore Capito. While being blacked out by the media, Paula Jean has a real shot of Winning this Senate Seat. She's endorsed by the sunrise movement & Bernie Sanders along with many others! paulajean.com
.@Bradshaw2020 is running for Senate in Tennessee. She won her primary with a surprising upset & now is ready to bring an upset to the General too. She's endorsed by the Sunrise movement, @marwilliamson, Elizabeth Warren & many more. marquitabradshaw.com
Read 34 tweets
[THREAD]

Cori Bush defied the odds and defeated a political dynasty.

Jamaal Bowman won with 55.4%

We’ve had so many historic progressive wins, but it doesn’t end here! Let’s get progressives like those listed below in office!
Screw “Blue Wave”, lets make a #ProgressiveFlood!
1. @EdMarkey
Running for Senate: #Massachusetts

Supports: the Green New Deal and Medicare For All

His primary Election Day is September 1st

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: edmarkey.com
2. @AlexBMorse
District: #MA01

Supports: Medicare For All, Universal Basic Income, $15 Minimum Wage, Cancel Student Debt, and Free College Tuition.

His primary Election Day is September 1st.

#ProgressiveFlood

For more info go to: alexmorseforcongress.com
Read 98 tweets
I know I don’t have many followers and this will reach only so many but I want people to know that @QasimRashid truly does have the best interest of Virginians at heart. He has actually engaged with the people at their doorstep as he did me.
I was caught off guard that Monday in 2019 he knocked on my door, I thought maybe a solicitor wanted to sell me on religion or maybe siding for my home. Either way I was going to see who this man was. He introduced himself and shook my hand and told me...
Who he was and gave me his flyer and asked for my vote. He didn’t care about my race or my political affiliation and told me what he wanted to do. Honestly I was beside myself. This was the first time in my life that a candidate or a politician ever..
Read 15 tweets
Hey #Virginia
Well done for #PrimaryElection!
You gave the country hope with your State elections.
Same again for #Midterms2018?
Here’s a THREAD of
ALL Democratic Candidates
& Voter Info with Links
#BlueWave2018
#VA01 #VA02 #VA03 #VA04 #VA05 #VA06 #VA07 #VA08 #VA09 #VA10 #VA11
Democratic Candidate #VA01 #VA1

Vangie Williams
vangieforcongress.com
@Vangie4Congress

vs Incumbent Rob Wittman (R)
Voting Record: projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump…

VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by October 15
Apply for Absentee Ballot by October 30
#FlipVABlue #BlueWaveVA
Democratic Candidates #VA02 #VA2

Elaine Luria
Retired Navy Commander & Businesswoman
elaineforcongress.com
@ElaineLuriaVA

vs Incumbent Scott Taylor (R)
Voting Record projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-trump…

VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018
Register by October 15

THREAD
#FlipVABlue #BlueWaveVA
Read 19 tweets
Hey #Virginia
#Primary Election JUNE 12, 2018
Here’s a THREAD of ALL Democratic Candidates for Congress including Websites.
& Voter Info with Links
Register by MAY 21st here: elections.virginia.gov/citizen-portal…
#BlueWave2018
#VA01 #VA02 #VA03 #VA04 #VA05 #VA06 #VA07 #VA08 #VA09 #VA10 #VA11
#ABSENTEE BALLOT in #Virginia
Request Absentee ballot by OCTOBER 30
Return by November 6
Online Application here: elections.virginia.gov/citizen-portal…
Printable Application here: elections.virginia.gov/Files/Forms/Vo…
Send to Voter Registration Office here: vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformati…

THREAD
VOTER ID in Virginia
#VoterID #VA
Find Local Voter Registration Office here: vote.elections.virginia.gov/VoterInformati…
Application for free Voter Photo Identification Card here: elections.virginia.gov/Files/Forms/Vo…

thread
#VA01 #VA02 #VA03 #VA04 #VA05 #VA06 #VA07 #VA08 #VA09 #VA10 #VA11
Read 17 tweets
Welcome to #SinglePayerSunday 🇺🇸
Promote #MedicareForAll by becoming a #MedicareForAllVoter 🗽
#MedicareForAllVoter 🗽
Is #MedicareForAll Politically Viable?
A Guide to 561 Congressional Candidates.
#SinglePayerSunday 🚑
kingstoncreative.net/practical-demo…
#MedicareForAllVoter 🗽
Here's the original story on @dccc scaring @TheDemocrats away from #MedicareForAll: 🇺🇸

#SinglePayerSunday REMINDER:
#MedicareExtra and @USofCare are SCAMS! 💰
theintercept.com/2018/02/27/dcc…
Read 53 tweets

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