Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #va07
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NEW RRH Polls of 3 districts:
#VA07
🔴 @yestoyesli (R) 47%
🔵 @RepSpanberger (D) 47%
#OR04
🔴 @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
🔵 @ValHoyle (D) 45%
#OH13
🔴 @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
🔵 @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%
rrhelections.com/?p=104100
#VA07
🔴 @yestoyesli (R) 47%
🔵 @RepSpanberger (D) 47%
#OR04
🔴 @alekskarlatos (R) 45%
🔵 @ValHoyle (D) 45%
#OH13
🔴 @madisongesiotto (R) 44%
🔵 @EmiliaSykesOH (D) 46%
rrhelections.com/?p=104100
In #VA07 we found Youngkin very popular (+17) and Biden not (-11). Spanberger leads with those who have already voted; Vega will be relying on strong Election Day turnout. Spanberger leads in Stafford County, Vega in Spotsylvania.
In #OR04, Biden is underwater (-9) despite carrying our sample 50-41 in 2020. Undecideds lean young, blue collar, and rural in this tied race. Hoyle does not have as large a lead in Lane County (Eugene) as one may expect.
Final Georgia EV update:
Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm
Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.
And then 2.5mm happened.
Gender spread? Women +10 !!!!
Exclamation point on Friday: +244K
EV total = nominally over 2.5mm
Context: Warnock campaign aspired to a 2.1mm EV cycle target. Anything >2.3mm = terrific, anything >2.4mm = almost unthinkable.
And then 2.5mm happened.
Gender spread? Women +10 !!!!
Context most favorable to Walker: Old Dixiecrats (white men & women >50yrs) showed up huge. Older white voters, both wealthy suburban & rural, are the largest % participation rate strata by a large measure.
Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…
Walker campaign did everything it needed to do to feed the MAGA beast…
That as given, GOP has a numbers problem along the Old Dixie I-95 corridor in VA, NC & in GA.
The pluses: older white voters are a group that has ardently showed up at rates >80% of RVs & is now breaking ~85% GOP straight ticket. It’s also a cluster growing on a nominal basis.
The pluses: older white voters are a group that has ardently showed up at rates >80% of RVs & is now breaking ~85% GOP straight ticket. It’s also a cluster growing on a nominal basis.
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes its final major filing binge before next week's election, dropping $29.4 million in 41 races.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
Tonight's dump brings their general election IE total to just under $210 million, over $70 million ahead of their 2020 pace.
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
The @NRCC is out with what's likely it's final major buy ahead of the election, dropping $19.5 million in 29 House races and finally pulling ahead of their 2020 pace, logging $84.4 million in general election IEs.
The DCCC is out with what is likely its final major buy before the election, dropping $8 million in 23 House races and adding the Biden +15% #NY04 to the board as targeted seat number 67.
(This is also the first direct independent expenditure spending by the DCCC to defend DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney in #NY17).
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
The GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes tonight's filing dump, dropping $24.9 million in 39 races, bringing its general election IE spending to $175,411,754, more than the $173,430,579 spent by the Democratic House Majority PAC and the DCCC combined.
Whoa...House Majority PAC off the top rope with $30 million distributed across 45 races.
*strike that, 47 races. The largest buy goes to the Biden +12% #NJ05, making its debut on the chart as targeted seat #65.
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The Democratic House Majority PAC goes up with $17.47 million in ads across 40 districts, including the first spending by any of the big four committees in Josh Harder's #CA09, bringing the number of targeted House seats to an even 60.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
The @dccc's Tuesday night dump at 3 weeks out adds another $12.57M in spending across 25 races, bringing their general election expenditures to $64 million as the NRCC continues to hold back, logging less than $30 million in IEs.
Friday night's filing dump from the GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund concludes after a $23.15 million torrent of spending spread across 43 targeted House races.
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
CLF has now passed $120 million in general election IEs.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
Congressional Leadership Fund continues to run well ahead of their pace from past cycles and is running laps around the Democratic House Majority PAC, outspending their counterpart $120.9M to $40.7M.
Cowardly, rage-prone Abigail @SpanbergerVA07 is afraid of debating cool, calm police officer @yestoyesli unless BOTH of the moderators are on Spanberger's team.
Spanberger can’t defend her anti-parent agenda or her rubber stamp support for Biden 100% of the time. #VA07
Spanberger can’t defend her anti-parent agenda or her rubber stamp support for Biden 100% of the time. #VA07
Spanberger is still supporting Democrat Elizabeth Guzman, who is introducing legislation to jail parents for child abuse if they do not affirm their child's wish to identify as transgender foxnews.com/politics/dems-…
A member of Spanberger's campaign, Kenny Boddye, recently was caught on tape saying that parents who don't use their child's preferred transgender name should potentially have their kids taken away dailycaller.com/2022/10/11/abi…
The Democratic House Majority PAC's weekly independent expenditure dump adds another $9.08 million in 34 House races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
HMP has now spent $39.6 million in 42 targeted races.
🚨🚨🚨🧵Virginia Democrats to introduce legislation that would allow parents who don’t affirm their child’s “gender identity” to be criminally prosecuted. 1/
@NickMinock is reporting that @guzman4virginia is leading the charge to “expand the definition of child abuse to include parents that do not affirm their child’s gender identity.” /2 wjla.com/amp/news/crisi…
@guzman4virginia said that there would be a CPS investigation and “it could be a felony, it could be a misdemeanor, but we know that a CPS charge could harm your employment.” /3
The House GOP's Congressional Leadership Fund SuperPAC wraps up its Friday spending dump, finishing up at $22 million deployed across 42 House races.
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
docquery.fec.gov/cgi-bin/forms/…
32 days out, @CLFSuperPAC's general election spending is running ~$60 million ahead of their breakneck 2020 pace.
A pair of major filings from the @dccc and @NRCC within seconds of one another...the DCCC dropping $16.8 million in 33 races and the NRCC still holding back and deploying $5.59M in 9 races.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
The DCCC's general election IE total is at $46.4M vs $19.5M for the NRCC.
Thread: which party is "ahead" in redistricting? In my view, it's close to a wash. But the truth is, it depends which metric you use.
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
As @Nate_Cohn has alluded, tracking by district partisanship (slight Dem gain) differs from tracking by seat control (neutral/slight GOP gain).
New Jersey's new map is a perfect illustration. By @CookPolitical PVI (a measure of districts' 16/20 prez performance vs. national result), three seats have gone from R-leaning to D-leaning: #NJ03, #NJ05 and #NJ11.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
Meanwhile, one seat moves from D-leaning to R-leaning: #NJ07.
By district partisanship metrics, that sounds like a great deal for Dems. And it mostly is!
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
However, Dems currently hold *all four* of these seats. That means the new map's most likely practical outcome in 2022 is still a Dem loss of one seat (9D-3R, down from 10D-2R in 2020).
New: Virginia special masters' map eliminates Abigail Spanberger's (D) current suburban Richmond #VA07 & turns it into a safe Dem seat in Northern Virginia. Rep. Elaine Luria's #VA02 would remain highly competitive, for a 6D-4R-1C split overall.
By the numbers, this might be a slightly better map for Dems than the current one (5D-4R-2C), but much better for Republicans than had Democrats retained redistricting power and drawn an 8D-3R gerrymander.
VIRGINIA: Dems hold a 7D-4R lead on the current map (below). But in 2020, Dems/voters approved a bipartisan commission that's proven dysfunctional thus far, likely punting redistricting to the right-leaning VA Supreme Court. Here's why that's a big deal...
Today, I proudly voted to strengthen the @StateDept's ability to serve Americans and advance U.S. interests around the world, carry out global anti-corruption activities, and bolster its own cybersecurity and training for diplomats and career civil servants.
This bill: [THREAD]
This bill: [THREAD]
Includes a provision I helped draft to strengthen long-term training opportunities for diplomatic personnel — for both foreign and career civil servants — so they can better advance U.S. interests and forge diplomatic solutions to challenging issues around the world,
Includes a list of State Department training institutions that should be considered as part of the strategy to expand training, including FASTC, right at home in #VA07, and
