Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #vaccineeffect
Most recents (1)
It's been a busy few days/weeks/months modelling steps 2, 3 and 4 of the #roadmap out of lockdown in England, with my #ateam @_nickdavies @markjit and John Edmunds. A 🧵 on our latest work looking at #step4 🪜👩💻 and a #photodump of some nice things I saw along the way 
We project the dynamics of #SARSCoV2 transmission in England using an #agestructured #transmission #model which divides the population into vaccine states and disease states. The model has compartments for three #COVID19 variants (OG, #alpha and #delta) and 2 two-dose vaccines 💉
To capture changes in behaviour (➡️ the amount people mix in the model), we use historic #mobilitydata and make assumptions about what might happen to mobility when policies are implemented, e.g. #step4 🍀 We make low, medium and high assumptions to account for uncertainty... ⭐️
