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Keynote by David Pyle at #VICS2019: many volcanic eruptions are explicable, but not predictable.
Andrew Schurer #VICS2019: are we sure that the Tambora eruption caused the 1816 “year without a summer”? Not sure, and changes in circulation *can* produce similar conditions. But Tambora-like eruptions make the cold summer in Western Europe about 10-100 times more likely.
Alan Robock #VICS2019: summer of 1783 was quite hot in Western Europe, despite the huge Laki eruption. Basically, natural variability leading to a hot summer overwhelmed whatever cooling effect Laki would have produced.
