Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #vicvotes
Most recents (24)
We’re here in Bayswater to announce our wonderful new Candidate for Aston, Mary Doyle! #AstonVotes #AusPol #Aston twitter.com/i/web/status/1… 
Mary grew up in housing commission, she’s the youngest of nine kids to a mum who’s now in Aged Care. She has two kids herself and cares for another. She’s been a call centre worker, a cleaner, a singer in a band, and helped working families for most of her working life. #auspol
The choice is clear between a Prime Minister @AlboMP who is delivering a positive plan for all Australians or Peter Dutton, who only offers a return to that divisive, cold and careless past. #auspol #astonvotes
It's button press day in #VicVotes - not really democracy as such but it can still be fun! I will tweet the provisional results as I get them and this page will have both provisional results and commentary on the distributions once I've analysed them:
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/victor…
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/12/victor…
E Vic as expected
Heath (Lib)
McIntosh (ALP)
Bath (Nat)
Shing (ALP)
Bourman (SFF)
Heath (Lib)
McIntosh (ALP)
Bath (Nat)
Shing (ALP)
Bourman (SFF)
NE Met as expected
Leane (ALP)
Bach (Lib)
Terpstra (ALP)
McGowan (Lib)
Puglielli (GRN)
Leane (ALP)
Bach (Lib)
Terpstra (ALP)
McGowan (Lib)
Puglielli (GRN)
#VicVotes 2PP pending Narracan
ALP 54.91 - L-NP 45.09
If Labor doesn't contest Narracan that's it, if they do it will almost certainly come down a bit.
ALP 54.91 - L-NP 45.09
If Labor doesn't contest Narracan that's it, if they do it will almost certainly come down a bit.
The swing on the raw 2PPs is 2.39 to Coalition but that's not comparing like with like as Richmond was not a 2PP seat in 2018 and Narracan may or may not be one in 2022. The swing excluding these two seats is 2.79%.
As noted there appears to be an issue with the 2PP for Pascoe Vale. I think if it is corrected the current 2PP may come down to about 54.85. I'm still working on Lower House writeup but will probably hold off releasing to see if this changes.
Just looking at how few of Labor's seat wins are even remotely close it becomes clear that Labor has won this Victorian election by an enormous margin. #VicVotes
Assuming Labor wins at least one of Northcote and Preston (it may very well win both) that puts it on 52. To even get it out of majority just via 2PP swing in classic seats from there currently takes a 2PP swing of 6.6%.
Labor could have got a majority with a 2PP of 47.6 (though likely would have dropped a few more to the Greens if doing that badly). This is extraordinary. The hinge seat for majority based off classic 2PPs is Sunbury or Box Hill.
Both the Cookers and @liberalvictoria (yes, I know there is some crossover) failed abysmally in #VicVotes for much the same reasons. They each exist inside information bubbles/echo chambers that don't mirror reality. #auspol 1/4
Most @LiberalVictoria MPs have blocked every dissenting voice on social media. They read only Murdoch's rags, listen only to 3AW and watch only @skynewsaust and consort only with people like themselves. They believed their own BS. #auspol 2/4
The Cookers on the other hand ignore most mainstream media, they interact online via a plethora of inter-connected social media sites that all represent the same crackpot views and consort with other cookers with the same beliefs. They too believed their own BS. #auspol 3/4
FIL took ill this week on Vic country trip, taken to small country hospital, deemed to need major regional hospital, wait a day for MICA ambo to become available, then transferred. Can't come back to Melbourne bcoz "there's no available ICU or cardiology beds there" #springst 😳
Once at major regional hospital, spent day in ED before ward bed became available, still no ICU. Today, deemed to have been exposed to #covid while in ED. Experiencing heart & breathing problems prior to this. Already in a dire situation, still unable to get care level needed
To be clear, all HCW staff have been top notch to both FIL & my husband's family. They are being pushed past their limits by totally preventable covid catastrophe.
All governments should hang their eugenics heads in shame.
#auspol #springst #VicVotes #BringBackMasks #BringBackIso
All governments should hang their eugenics heads in shame.
#auspol #springst #VicVotes #BringBackMasks #BringBackIso
Blocked @mayorquimby123 for persistent bad faith debating but thought it was worth giving this a broader audience:
Defenders of Victorian Group Ticket Voting often argue that everything's fine because voters can easily just vote 1-5 and stop BTL. They're wrong. #VicVotes
Defenders of Victorian Group Ticket Voting often argue that everything's fine because voters can easily just vote 1-5 and stop BTL. They're wrong. #VicVotes
The reason they're wrong in terms of fairness to voters is that a 1-5 and stop BTL vote is not a fully effective vote. It helps only 1-3 parties then exhausts. The effort barrier to expressing your own preferences between *all* parties is much greater.
Under GTV a voter who fully agrees with their party ticket can give full preferences by just numbering one box. A voter who does not agree with any party ticket needs to number every box to do so. That effort barrier is plainly and simply politically discriminatory and wrong.
heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/…
This is claimed to be "bombshell new polling" but no new polling is mentioned. #VicVotes
This is claimed to be "bombshell new polling" but no new polling is mentioned. #VicVotes
Perhaps because of the paywall some people are confusing this story with the Mulgrave exit poll rubbish. This one is analysis by Redbridge with seat predictions but how much polling is included, when and where from is not spelled out.
Non paywall version (I think) here
This is circulating and is clearly illegal mis/disinfo. In fact (i) Sack Dan Andrews is a Druery thing not a Labor thing (ii) SDA preferences other micros (iii) SDA orderings of the major parties vary between tickets.
#VicVotes
@electionsvic
#VicVotes
@electionsvic
@electionsvic Indeed the major party orderings submitted by SDA not only vary as to which party is put first but also often chop and change the order of major party candidates (obfuscating which party is really being helped.)
(It may be the material originates outside Victoria but Victorians circulating it are republishing material that misleads in relation to the casting of a vote by making a false statement about the consequences of voting ATL for a party.)
There's a stoush going on about this. It's another Lower House case where the preferences will definitely never reach the candidate concerned so it is all about symbolism, but some comments about it anyway. #VicVotes
Both major parties have put Baker-Pearce 5th. However the Liberals have put him above Animal Justice, Greens and Labor, while Labor has put him above the Liberal Democrats, Family First Victoria and Freedom Party Victoria.
Labor's card has some obvious up-down ordering to make the card easy to follow (this is common). The Liberal card has no such design and appears to be a conscious ordering.
New Roy Morgan research shows Daniel Andrews is significantly more trusted than Matthew Guy. #springst #VicVotes
#ThisIsNotPollReporting
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Article in Herald-Sun claimed Redbridge poll showed "support for Labor and the Coalition on a knife edge"
Sure it did - on primary votes. Published 2PP was 53.5 to ALP (probably an underestimate)
#VicVotes
Another similar report at news.com.au has "Concern within the Labor Party is mounting, with polling revealed by the Herald Sun this week predicting a possible hung parliament."
1. The poll is a snapshot, not a prediction.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
2. The poll snapshots voting intention, not seats in parliament.
3. If you say something's merely possible, that's not a prediction.
4. The chance of a hung parliament if votes cast matched the Redbridge poll is negligible.
Absolutely farcical. Vetting so poor that a candidate has made it to what is normally a guaranteed win position will not sit in the party room.
#VicVotes
#VicVotes
So the only way to vote above all else for Coalition candidates who will sit in the party room in E Vic is to vote below the line and rank top candidate below the others or not at all.
Congrats to the Victorian Liberals for discovering a new species of mess.
Congrats to the Victorian Liberals for discovering a new species of mess.
Also, while Guy says she will not sit in the party room it doesn't seem she has been actually disendorsed by the party. Even when a candidate is formally endorsed on the ballot paper a party can still declare they no longer unofficially endorse that candidate.
This is disingenuous garbage from Premier Andrews. His own MPs on Electoral Matters passed the buck back to the Parliament to commission a review into GTV in the previous term and his own government then failed to start that review. #VicVotes
theage.com.au/politics/victo…
theage.com.au/politics/victo…
You could only think the matter of Group Ticket Voting was not in sharp focus after at least a fifth of the parliament was elected undeservedly in 2018 - resulting in a deluge of submissions - if you were a politician with severe vision problems.
It is also hypocritical for the Liberals to say they would refer Labor to IBAC as the Liberals should also be investigated over claims made in the video. In particular, whether a desire to avoid upsetting Druery resulted in them abandoning a previous anti_GTV position.
Tweet I quote-tweeted has disappeared but there are other reports that the teals have won their appeal against the VEC over how-to-vote cards. VCAT may have overturned 2018 Sheed ruling, will be interesting to see the judgement. #VicVotes
Pleased to see this because if the VEC and previous VCAT reading of the law was correct then the law would have been a donkey. No evidence the cards cause informal voting and even if they do it only hurts the candidate using them.
For a detailed discussion of why there is no evidence these cards shift the informal rate in either direction see my article here:
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/firing…
kevinbonham.blogspot.com/2022/11/firing…
Could not come at a better time after all that on-tilt whinging about being deceived by the Animal Justice Party.
Now ratted on by the Angry Victorians as well. We love to see it.
Now ratted on by the Angry Victorians as well. We love to see it.
Interesting - Druery says he had a Liberal contact come to him seeking help and said they would have to commit to not ending GTV.
His word for it and says they said no but this should be investigated further given the Libs' in(s)ane contribution to the GTV debate last year.
His word for it and says they said no but this should be investigated further given the Libs' in(s)ane contribution to the GTV debate last year.
Very hard to know what sort of vote some parties will get, eg ON and UAP which polled substantially at the federal election but may not be making as much effort this time.
Also question of how much Legalise Cannabis might eat into any Green gains that would otherwise occur.
Already seeing reminders of what rubbish this system is. In SEM my first attempt elected Hinch. When I took 1% off the Greens he was replaced by Legalise Cannabis.
Already seeing reminders of what rubbish this system is. In SEM my first attempt elected Hinch. When I took 1% off the Greens he was replaced by Legalise Cannabis.
Neil Mitchell says he has been leaked internal ALP polling with the following:
Loss: Oakleigh, Hawthorn, Point Cook, Albert Park
In danger: Werribee
Close: Mulgrave
No numbers so nothing to analyse here. #VicVotes
Loss: Oakleigh, Hawthorn, Point Cook, Albert Park
In danger: Werribee
Close: Mulgrave
No numbers so nothing to analyse here. #VicVotes
Internal polling "leaks" often turn out to be nonsense as they can be (i) expectation management (ii) disgruntled elements (iii) tiny samples (iv) incorrectly analysed (v) in some cases simply fictitious. Nonetheless noted to see how it goes post-election.
Oakleigh is on 16% and without a high-profile non-classic contender so this is sounding like a #pollshapedobject
Controversy over VEC interpretations regarding how-to-vote cards for independents.
abc.net.au/news/2022-11-1…
#VicVotes
abc.net.au/news/2022-11-1…
#VicVotes
This seems unsatisfactory. Sheed v VEC (austlii.edu.au/cgi-bin/viewdo…?) found “Then number Every Box" is not sufficient but the VEC guide implies "a statement to instruct the voter
to number all the boxes." is OK?vec.vic.gov.au/-/media/3b00f7… #VicVotes
to number all the boxes." is OK?vec.vic.gov.au/-/media/3b00f7… #VicVotes
I mean, what more is Frederico supposed to do, her card already tells voters they must number all boxes *twice*, does she need to say it a third time and get her lawyer to send the VEC a copy of The Hunting Of The Snark?
As expressed this is a completely absurd statement by whoever said it since Labor seats going to the Greens will make absolutely no difference to who forms government and will categorically not boost the Liberals' chances - if they exist - in any way.
A more intelligent way to defend it would be to say that they were forcing Labor to fight harder to defend those seats. But even that's not all that logical since two of them looked like very serious fights anyway. #VicVotes
(Note these are only how to vote recommendations, not preferencing in the sense of the upper house, but in the case of Liberal how to votes it can make a sizeable difference. Not a huge difference since the Liberal vote in eg Northcote is barely double figures, but a few %.)
For today's blog post I'm analysing how three-cornered contests between ALP, Greens and Coalition play out with different preference flows between the parties. This chart shows who would win with a given 3CP based on different preference scenarios #VicVotes #springst
For this chart I looked at how preferences from the Liberal Party flowed at the 2018 election and plotted out a bunch of Greens contests from 2014 and 2018. You can see how an increased Greens vote could still see them lose if it also involves the Liberal Party dropping into 3rd.
And for this one, I looked at Greens contests from federal and QLD elections. Liberal preferences flowed more strongly to the ALP at the 2022 federal election.
#Newspoll Vic (state) 54-46 to Labor. L-NP 37 ALP 37 Green 13 others 13
That is the first public poll from anyone inside 55-45 or with Labor not leading on primaries since June 2021 #VicVotes
#Newspoll Andrews net +7 (51-44) Guy net -20 (32-52) Better Premier (skews to incumbents) Andrews leads rather modestly 51-32.
We’re here with a big room of community members for the Hawthorn Candidates Forum organised by the legends at @LiteFootPrints … follow this thread for live tweeting of the event! #springst #vicvotes
Candidates present are:
Sitting MP @JohnKennedyMP (Labor)
@JohnPesutto (Liberal)
Nick Savage - @NickForHawthorn (Greens)
Melissa Lowe - @mel4hawthorn (Ind)
Sitting MP @JohnKennedyMP (Labor)
@JohnPesutto (Liberal)
Nick Savage - @NickForHawthorn (Greens)
Melissa Lowe - @mel4hawthorn (Ind)
.@JonathanLaNauze of @EnviroVic opens the night and asks if the next elected state government will seize the opportunities presented by taking serious action on climate change, for all of us.
We've launched "A Plan for Aboriginal Justice in Victoria"
It is a clear and realistic plan to end the over-policing and overincarceration of our people.
Download the plan here: vals.org.au/victorias-poli…
#SpringSt #VicVotes 1/10
It is a clear and realistic plan to end the over-policing and overincarceration of our people.
Download the plan here: vals.org.au/victorias-poli…
#SpringSt #VicVotes 1/10
