Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #viennatalks
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From near-conclusion to near-collapse, back to near-conclusion, now edging again toward collapse: New @CrisisGroup report on the #Iran nuclear negotiations, which have had more twists than a telenovela and higher stakes than ever.🧵👇
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…
crisisgroup.org/b87-middle-eas…
2| Talks to revive the JCPOA have been a peculiar, even sui generis exercise: 2 central protagonists with no direct engagement, negotiating a return to a deal they've already agreed to, with multiple parties engaged directly or indirectly as participants or mediators.
3| Despite these peculiarities, by early March a deal seemed within reach at #ViennaTalks: Technical text essentially complete, IAEA discussing a roadmap to resolve safeguards issues, planning for a ministerial meeting to seal things up. But then began the unravelling. 
The past few years have offered a case study to test the argument made against limiting Iran's nuclear program through diplomacy: That covert operations and sabotage can do the job better and without giving any sanctions relief.
Here's what happened instead [thread]:
Here's what happened instead [thread]:
2/ When Natanz was attacked in July 2020, intel assessment from the Trump admin and Israel claimed it would take up to 2 years for Iran to get back to pre-attack capabilities.
2 years later, Iran had 4x as many advanced centrifuges running, at higher levels of enrichment.
2 years later, Iran had 4x as many advanced centrifuges running, at higher levels of enrichment.
3/ After the killing of Mohsen Fakhrizadeh in November 2020, an Israeli official said it "did not brake Iran's progress as was hoped".
No, it did not. It hit the accelerator by upping enrichment to 20%, limiting inspections, and more centrifuges.
No, it did not. It hit the accelerator by upping enrichment to 20%, limiting inspections, and more centrifuges.
#BREAKING A leaked report on the remarks made by Iran's chief negotiator @Bagheri_Kani in a closed-door briefing, obtained by @IranIntl_En, provides more details about some of the concessions Bagheri claims his negotiating team has received from the US in #ViennaTalks.
@Bagheri_Kani 1- Issue of removing IRGC from FTO list will be discussed in talks that will follow revival of JCPOA, but the US guarantees its sanctions against IRGC wouldn't affect other sectors & firms: e.g. US won't sanction a petrochemical company because of doing business with IRGC;
@Bagheri_Kani 2- The US guarantees that its domestic laws like CAATSA and Patriot Act wouldn't impact implementation of its obligations under JCPOA;
3- The amount of natural uranium Iran receives from Russia must be double the amount of yellow-cake it exports;
3- The amount of natural uranium Iran receives from Russia must be double the amount of yellow-cake it exports;
#BREAKING A list of "concessions" the US has agreed to give Iran in #ViennaTalks, circulating among conservative circles close to Raisi admin and seen by @IranIntl_En:
1- Removal of sanctions on 17 banks;
2- Immediate release of $7 billion worth of Iranian assets in South Korea;
1- Removal of sanctions on 17 banks;
2- Immediate release of $7 billion worth of Iranian assets in South Korea;
The list of concessions also includes:
3- Sanctions relief for 150 institutions including Setad;
4- Sale of 50 million barrels of oil in 120 days;
5- Annulment of three Trump Executive Orders on Day 1;
6- Exemption of foreign companies from sanctions in case of US withdrawal.
3- Sanctions relief for 150 institutions including Setad;
4- Sale of 50 million barrels of oil in 120 days;
5- Annulment of three Trump Executive Orders on Day 1;
6- Exemption of foreign companies from sanctions in case of US withdrawal.
According to the list, obtained by @IranIntl_En, the deal is to be implemented in 120 days, and will result in the exchange of Iranian and American prisoners.
#BREAKING
Reports:
-this round of #ViennaTalks has ended
-delegations returning to their capitals w/o setting any deadline for a response from capitals
"The EU has negotiated the best possible deal. It is up to the parties to take the deal."
#Iran
politico.com/news/2022/08/0…
Reports:
-this round of #ViennaTalks has ended
-delegations returning to their capitals w/o setting any deadline for a response from capitals
"The EU has negotiated the best possible deal. It is up to the parties to take the deal."
#Iran
politico.com/news/2022/08/0…
One senior European diplomat gave one reason why #Iran could be stonewalling the IAEA probe: “The Iranian regime seems to prefer to protect some individuals involved in clandestine activities 20 years ago instead of freeing its economy and opening up the future for its people.”
Various takes on the current state of #Iran nuclear negotiations following this round of #ViennaTalks
Aug 6—Vienna
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
Aug 6—Stockholm
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
Aug 6—The Hague
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
Iranians in exile & supporters of the #Iran opposition MEK calling on U.S. & European governments to stop their appeasement of Tehran's regime.
#ViennaTalks
#BREAKING
Israeli warplanes targets Tayseer al-Jabari, a senior commander of the #Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terror group in northern Gaza.
Tehran's regime is the main supporter of this terror group.
Israeli warplanes targets Tayseer al-Jabari, a senior commander of the #Iran-backed Islamic Jihad terror group in northern Gaza.
Tehran's regime is the main supporter of this terror group.
#Iran’s Supreme Leader's Aide Urges Closer Ties With Palestinian Militant Outfit
Leader of the Islamic Jihad Ziyad al-Nakhalah (L) and Iran’s Supreme Leader's adviser Ali Akbar Velayati in Tehran on August 3, 2022.
#Terrorism
iranintl.com/en/202208043697
Leader of the Islamic Jihad Ziyad al-Nakhalah (L) and Iran’s Supreme Leader's adviser Ali Akbar Velayati in Tehran on August 3, 2022.
#Terrorism
iranintl.com/en/202208043697
More footage from Gaza
Senior EU official on #JCPOA talks: The current talks in Vienna are aimed at closing the text presented by @JosepBorrellF on July 21. The space for negotiation has been exhaused. We are discussing 4-5 "technical issues". We are "fine-tuning" them. #ViennaTalks 1/
On prospect of success: "I think there is a real possibility of having an agreement but it is not going to be easy." The sticking point on the IRGC delisting has been resolved. It has been agreed that it will be discussed in the future once the US and Iran can meet directly. 2/
The sticking point on guarantees has also been resolved. Iran is no longer demanding political guarantees. "We are addressing this concern [the guarantees] in the text in quite a substantial way. Iran is happy with what is included in the text on guarantees." 3/
Almost 5 months to the day that E3 negotiators left #ViennaTalks with, as @PhilippeErrera put it, "our job done", it's back to the Asparagus Palace - first time all of the P4+1, U.S., and Iran will be in the same place at the same time since March. [Thread]
2/ At the time, success seemed within touching distance: "The FTO and a pair of footnotes", as one senior Western official told me. Iran and @IAEAOrg were agreeing on a roadmap to address safeguards, concluded in Tehran on 5 March. But that's also when the unravelling began.
3/ Russia's FM asked for sweeping sanctions exemptions. EU coordinator paused in-person talks. The IAEA probe made little headway. The FTO debate kicked off in DC. Censure resolution in June --> nuclear escalation. More U.S. sanx. And some files thought closed in Vienna reopened.
The U.S. & Iran are about to resume indirect, EU-mediated talks in Doha in an effort to break deadlock over restoring the nuclear deal.
Having the two key protagonists in one place is a necessary ingredient for diplomacy to succeed. But a breakthrough is far from assured. 🧵
Having the two key protagonists in one place is a necessary ingredient for diplomacy to succeed. But a breakthrough is far from assured. 🧵
2/ Since #ViennaTalks were paused in March, there have been efforts through various intermediaries, but mainly @enriquemora_, to find middle ground on the remaining issues of disagreement, which are bilateral US-Iran differences rather than technical matters involving wider P4+1.
3/ Those efforts failed to resolve the substantive impasse, notably around the IRGC FTO designation. And in terms of format, it's been a slow, time-consuming and inconclusive process of messages exchanged, responses awaited.
THREAD
Despite these statements, the West has insisted on believing that the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of #Tehran's #nuclear program have ceased to exist since 2003. 1/8
Despite these statements, the West has insisted on believing that the Possible Military Dimensions (PMD) of #Tehran's #nuclear program have ceased to exist since 2003. 1/8
For almost two decades, Western negotiators kept coming up with initiatives to keep the talks alive and carrots followed incentive packages.
2/8
2/8
The regime in #Iran continued to stall the #ViennaTalks, while the E3 and the #US continued to postpone taking firm action in @iaeaorg BoG meeting one after the other. 3/8
#OTD in 2018, President Trump announced that his administration was withdrawing the U.S. from the Iran nuclear deal.
It was a massive gamble. It was a failed gamble. But should be an instructive gamble. 🧵👇
It was a massive gamble. It was a failed gamble. But should be an instructive gamble. 🧵👇
2/ Trump had criticized the agreement on the campaign trail, but held off for over a year from pulling the plug, in part because senior members of his team believed the deal continued to serve U.S. non-proliferation interests.
3/ In Autumn 2017, Trump refused to certify the agreement - though still holding off withdrawal.
"We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more chaos, the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakout", he said.
More on that shortly.
"We will not continue down a path whose predictable conclusion is more violence, more chaos, the very real threat of Iran’s nuclear breakout", he said.
More on that shortly.
Tomorrow marks 1 year since the first round of #ViennaTalks kicked off.
A state of play on where we've been, where we are, and where we might be going in this very peculiar exercise.🧵
A state of play on where we've been, where we are, and where we might be going in this very peculiar exercise.🧵
2| It was clear from the outset that despite shared goal of reviving JCPOA, path would be anything but easy. To destroy is easier than to rebuild, & even having a baseline text already available still required a way for both sides to resume commitments under new realities.
3| Negotiators set up working groups on sanctions relief and nuclear rollback, with a third on sequencing added later. Through June - the final round involving Rouhani's team - significant progress was made before the Iranian electoral calendar led to 5-month hiatus.
#Thred
1) Removing Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (#IRGC) from the U.S "Foreign Terrorist Organisations" (FTO) blacklist at the conclusion of the #ViennaTalks would be a very positive step.
1) Removing Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps (#IRGC) from the U.S "Foreign Terrorist Organisations" (FTO) blacklist at the conclusion of the #ViennaTalks would be a very positive step.
2) Designating the IRGC as a FTO was a blatant blunder by the Trump administration with potentially serious long-term ramifications for the international legal regime governing the laws of war.
3) This unprecedented designation was not legally sound even according to US domestic law; And the introduction of this precedent-setting practice into the international order risks "politicizing" - hence undermining - even further the already fragile IHL legal regime.
War in #Ukraine and a halt in negotiations on the #JCPOA due to #Russia’s demands are game changers that also risk endangering #Iran-#SaudiArabia talks. A THREAD 1/11🧵 : google.it/amp/s/www.alja…
2/11 After a new round of #KSA-#Iran talks was announced yesterday, rumors suggested #Iran wished to suspend talks. Meanwhile Iran’s IRGC launched an attack on US installations in Erbil. This is worrying: reuters.com/world/middle-e…
What's happening in #ViennaTalks? A state of play, best as I can tell [Thread]
2/ Last week, the main - but not sole - area of disagreement was over Iran's @IAEAOrg safeguards probe. U.S./E3 as well as the agency were clear that closing it was a non-starter.
DG Grossi went to Tehran on Saturday, secured an roadmap to address this.
One step forward.
DG Grossi went to Tehran on Saturday, secured an roadmap to address this.
One step forward.
3/ But the same day, right after 🇮🇱 PM’s visit, Russia's FM threw a wrench into the mix:
Facing what he described as an "avalanche of aggressive sanctions" against 🇷🇺 over 🇺🇦 Lavrov called for guarantees that these would not "in any way damage our right to free and full trade".
Facing what he described as an "avalanche of aggressive sanctions" against 🇷🇺 over 🇺🇦 Lavrov called for guarantees that these would not "in any way damage our right to free and full trade".
#BREAKING In a Thursday phone call with Iran FM @Amirabdolahian , EU Foreign Policy Chief @JosepBorrellF said #ViennaTalks are in a critical point, & now Iran & US must show more flexibility in exchange of messages & try to overcome the time limit, according to @IRIMFA's account.
@Amirabdolahian @JosepBorrellF @IRIMFA Borrell has said economic guarantees are important to Iran, and EU supports realization of Iran’s demand for guarantee.
“You Iranians are tough & competent negotiators,” @IRIMFA has quoted Borrell as saying.
#ViennaTalks
“You Iranians are tough & competent negotiators,” @IRIMFA has quoted Borrell as saying.
#ViennaTalks
@Amirabdolahian @JosepBorrellF @IRIMFA Iran FM, in turn, said “the US’ move to make new requests is not logically justifiable and contradicts its desire for reaching a deal as soon as possible.”
He said effective lifting of bans shouldn’t be influenced by US excessive demands.
#ViennaTalks
He said effective lifting of bans shouldn’t be influenced by US excessive demands.
#ViennaTalks
This afternoon, Senators @SenatorRisch, @tedcruz and @SenJohnBarrasso are leading a @SenateGOP press conference on the Iran nuclear deal.
You'd be hard-pressed to find three people who've been as wrong over as long a period on how to address Iran's nuclear program. [Thread]
You'd be hard-pressed to find three people who've been as wrong over as long a period on how to address Iran's nuclear program. [Thread]
2| Here's @SenatorRisch talking to @NPR in 2017, prior to Trump's withdrawal. He laments the deal's sunsets (not 10 years, BTW), and says the solution is... sanctions. Well, we know how that worked out - no nuclear restrictions at all!
3| Here's @SenJohnBarrasso on @FoxNews in 2019, lauding the decision to withdraw because "it didn't step them from getting the path to the weapon".
Yet here we are, with Iran enriching near-weapons grade, under limited monitoring, weeks from breakout capability.
Yet here we are, with Iran enriching near-weapons grade, under limited monitoring, weeks from breakout capability.
Thread: Iran's Foreign Minister @Amirabdolahian, who arrived in Doha on Monday evening after a visit to Muscat, told @AJArabic that "at this stage of #ViennaTalks Iran demands removal of JCPOA sanctions, but later on, we will definitely consider the lifting of all sanctions."
@Amirabdolahian @AJArabic Iran FM: Other parties to #ViennaTalks believe Iran shouldn't demand removal of all sanctions imposed by Trump after leaving JCPOA & rather want us to demand lifting of bans damaging JCPOA. That's a complication of talks. We blame it on lack of US serious will to reach good deal
@Amirabdolahian @AJArabic Iran FM on what's meant by guarantee:
1. No new bans are imposed
2. Lifted bans aren't reinstated on other pretexts like a law passed by Congress
3. Snapback is an issue, as it lets other parties to stop living up to commitments whenever they like with just a political decision
1. No new bans are imposed
2. Lifted bans aren't reinstated on other pretexts like a law passed by Congress
3. Snapback is an issue, as it lets other parties to stop living up to commitments whenever they like with just a political decision
#BREAKING An explosion has been heard near Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, according to unconfirmed reports by Iranian news websites Tabnak and SNN.
#BREAKING Local sources have told @NasimOnline_Ir the explosion has been so heavy that it damaged doors of people's houses. Still no official confirmation.
@NasimOnline_Ir #BREAKING Iran's official news agency IRNA confirms the explosion, quoting local sources as saying that the explosion has happened in Badroud region, 20 km away from Natanz nuclear facility
🧵My understanding is that Iran will have a series of parallel bilats with the P4+1 in NY, but that a joint P4+1 Iran or P5+1 Iran meeting is not expected. Blinken also due to meet with his E3 counterparts.
Separately, and more interesting
Separately, and more interesting
Understand P5+1 come up with a joint position they want to resume the talks with Iran where they left off after the sixth round. Don’t want Iran to say starting from scratch or here is a new text.
As Russia envoy to IAEA said yesterday, “The most important thing for success of the #ViennaTalks is to ensure continuity of the process. The negotiations should resume not from scratch but from the point reached by June 20.”
