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There are 18 Republican House Members representing Districts which Biden won in 2020:
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
#AZ01 - Schweikert
#AZ06 - Ciscomani*
#CA13 - Duarte*
#CA22 - Valadao
#CA27 - Garcia
#CA40 - Kim
#CA45 - Steele
#NE02 - Bacon
#NJ07 - Kean
#NY01 - LaLota*
#NY03 - Santos*
#NY04 - D’Esposito*
2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-…
Clark County, WASHINGTON in: great news for Dems.
15K ballots counted, & candidates broke nearly even: Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez got 18 more votes than Joe Kent.
She keeps lead of 5K votes in #WA03.
This matters bc it was a huge chunk of what's left.
15K ballots counted, & candidates broke nearly even: Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez got 18 more votes than Joe Kent.
She keeps lead of 5K votes in #WA03.
This matters bc it was a huge chunk of what's left.
Statewide page hasn't updated yet, so it's hard to know how many ballots are left, so I'll come back to this in a bit. But my VERY rough for nw estimate would be roughly 15K could be left? (Of which half would be in Pacific & Clark counties.) If so, Kent would need +33%.
#WA03 update: Yup, Clark has 5K left. Hard to exactly know for some others because they include more than WA03. But I'd still estimate ≈15K.
So: Kent must win what's left by ≈33%. (If Clark were to break even again, he'd need to win the rest by 50%...)
Nothing before MONDAY.
So: Kent must win what's left by ≈33%. (If Clark were to break even again, he'd need to win the rest by 50%...)
Nothing before MONDAY.
NEW update in #WA03, Clark County ballot results:
@MGPforCongress: +7,419
@joekent16jan19: +7,401
Net is D+18
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
@MGPforCongress: +7,419
@joekent16jan19: +7,401
Net is D+18
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
Unlike the previous batches, this result did not skew Republican.
These are nearly 15,000 ballots today from Clark.
Another drop expected soon from Thurston county, which could skew more in Kent's favor.
These are nearly 15,000 ballots today from Clark.
Another drop expected soon from Thurston county, which could skew more in Kent's favor.
Thurston County in #WA03 now reporting:
@MGPforCongress: +378
@joekent16jan19: +734
Net is R+356.
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
@MGPforCongress: +378
@joekent16jan19: +734
Net is R+356.
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
wowza at the schedule today
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
≈7pm ET: Clark, WA could tell us who won #WA03
post-7pm ET: Clark NV could drop any time, tell us who won #NVSen
post-8pm ET: Maricopa will help decipher #AZGovernor
≈10:30pm ET: Washoe NV could get us to the end if Clark hasn't
(+ Cali drops?)
There's more!
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
≈7-8pm ET: Los Angeles will have an update.
(I guess most suspenseful here is #CA27, tho can't hurt to have more mayor confirmation)
People are telling me to also expect Clark County (!), Oregon (#or05), and maybe Orange & Riverside #CA41) counties & others.
Sorry, there is no Clark County in Oregon. 🤦♂️
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
Be patient, please, this is Hour 96 of election night.
📣📣 A few days ago I posted my analysis of whether the GOP's COVID Death Cult 💀 is likely to be the decisive factor in any *statewide* races. My conclusion was that #NVSenate is the most likely candidate for this (& potentially #AZGov, #AZAG & the upcoming #GASenate Runoff). 1/
I estimate that *if* CCM ends up winning the #NVSenate race by less than ~2,400 votes, there's a very strong argument to be made that the GOP COVID Death Cult is what made the difference.
The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
The same applies if Dems win #AZGov or #AZAG by less than ~4,100 votes. 2/
In the case of #GASenate, if Raphael Warnock ends up winning the upcoming runoff election by less than ~5,700 votes, I would also put it in this category.
TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
TODAY, as promised, I'm looking at this question for HOUSE races, which are a lot trickier to do due to district borders. 3/
Positivish news for Dems in #WA03: (The other) Clark County just counted more than half of what it had left, and ballots broke virtually even (+0.6% for GOP). Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez remains 5K votes over Joe Kent.
Dems have been winning Clark so far by a lot, so this is an overperformance by Kent. But... he needs to make up the deficit somewhere, and red Skamania, Lewis, Wahkiakum are pretty much done! He may need to win what's left in Clark by 15-20% (if not more).
Looking thru the other counties, I'd like to edit my first tweet to this being clearly positive for Dems, not positivish.
NEW update in #WA03, Clark County's 20,000 ballot drop:
@MGPforCongress: +12,158
@joekent16jan19: +12,316
Net is R+158, barely more than 50%.
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
@MGPforCongress: +12,158
@joekent16jan19: +12,316
Net is R+158, barely more than 50%.
#waelex #MidtermElections2022
With these totals,
It's clear the last few days have skewed R, as the Kent campaign had hoped, but it's hard to see him closing this 5,000-vote gap.
This puts Clark still around 25,000 ballots, but the numbers below remain about the same.
It's clear the last few days have skewed R, as the Kent campaign had hoped, but it's hard to see him closing this 5,000-vote gap.
This puts Clark still around 25,000 ballots, but the numbers below remain about the same.
In #WA03, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez leads Joe Kent by 5,882 votes.
Kent has chopped a little more than 5,000 votes off her lead since election night.
Kent has chopped a little more than 5,000 votes off her lead since election night.
The secretary of state's office estimates there are roughly 55,000 ballots left to count, plus any that haven't arrived yet.
Roughly 45,000 of those are in Clark County, which is Perez's best county.
But in the primary, Kent had a larger share of late ballots, even in Clark.
Roughly 45,000 of those are in Clark County, which is Perez's best county.
But in the primary, Kent had a larger share of late ballots, even in Clark.
Per @mvilla1859, Kent likely needs ~56% of remaining ballots to catch up.
He's gotten 48.6% to date.
But he's only gotten 42.8% in Clark County, so he'll really have to pick up the pace there.
He's gotten 48.6% to date.
But he's only gotten 42.8% in Clark County, so he'll really have to pick up the pace there.
New: There are 32 House races the AP hasn't called yet, but they aren't all created equal. My best (reported) guess about which way they're breaking, and whether Dems have any shot at the majority. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Breaking it down, 2 of them are in D-vs.-D Calif. races, 2 GOP candidates have conceded, Dems are favored in 2 RCV tabulations. Then there are a dozen-plus other races where there's a clear favorite. politico.com/news/2022/11/1…
Here we go. Tonight’s results for #WA03 between Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and Joe Kent (R) are rolling in.
Cowlitz County and Lewis County both just added about 6k votes each
MGP’s lead has dropped from about 10k votes, to less than 7k votes
Waiting on 20k from Clark County
Cowlitz County and Lewis County both just added about 6k votes each
MGP’s lead has dropped from about 10k votes, to less than 7k votes
Waiting on 20k from Clark County
Both Cowlitz County and Lewis County favored Kent, so it’s no surprise he made up significant ground there.
However, that should be the last major vote drop from Lewis County.
Cowlitz (which is more competitive) has roughly 6k left to go. Clark County will decide it. #WA03
However, that should be the last major vote drop from Lewis County.
Cowlitz (which is more competitive) has roughly 6k left to go. Clark County will decide it. #WA03
As a reminder - Clark County officials say they have about 69,000 ballots left to count and can only process about 20k per day.
Clark expects to share tonight’s results around 6pm.
After that, still close to 50k ballots from Clark to go. Tonight’s #WA03 results will be telling
Clark expects to share tonight’s results around 6pm.
After that, still close to 50k ballots from Clark to go. Tonight’s #WA03 results will be telling
Hello all! We’re expecting updated results in the #WA03 Congressional race around 5 pm PT today
As it stands, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) leads Joe Kent (R) by about 10,000 votes
There’s an estimated 70,000 votes left to be reported, most from Clark County, but not all @KGWNews
As it stands, Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) leads Joe Kent (R) by about 10,000 votes
There’s an estimated 70,000 votes left to be reported, most from Clark County, but not all @KGWNews
The number of estimated votes left in this race could rise based on what’s to come from Lewis and Cowlitz counties as well - both areas that favor Kent.
The current Lewis and Cowlitz results are below.
We expect the latest Lewis drop at 4pm PT. Cowlitz around 8pm PT tonight.
The current Lewis and Cowlitz results are below.
We expect the latest Lewis drop at 4pm PT. Cowlitz around 8pm PT tonight.
Kent tweeted this morning there are about 120k votes left to count.
That’s higher than estimates I’ve seen based on turnout projections, but it’s anyone’s guess.
For context, 307k voted in #WA03 race in 2018 midterms. We’re at 219k now, and turnout is projected a little down.
That’s higher than estimates I’ve seen based on turnout projections, but it’s anyone’s guess.
For context, 307k voted in #WA03 race in 2018 midterms. We’re at 219k now, and turnout is projected a little down.
This is wild: Democrats are currently leading in every House district touching the Pacific Ocean.
Uncalled races are #AKAL, #CA26, #CA47, #CA49, & #WA03. Those first four seem very likely to stay blue, while #WA03 still has many ballots left.
Doubt this has ever happened before
Uncalled races are #AKAL, #CA26, #CA47, #CA49, & #WA03. Those first four seem very likely to stay blue, while #WA03 still has many ballots left.
Doubt this has ever happened before
Note that the USA Today/AP map above still has #OR04 as uncalled, but other media outlets have called it for Dem Val Hoyle, who leads by over 8 points dailykos.com/stories/2022/1…
Apparently, the last time Democrats won every congressional district touching the Pacific Ocean was in the 1870s, when there were far fewer districts & states bordering it
UPDATE in the #WA03 race between Marie Gluesenkamp Perez (D) and Joe Kent (R)
Clark County has about 90,000 ballots left to process & report. Election officials say they will be able to get through about 20,000 per day
That means it will take days for decisive results. @KGWNews
Clark County has about 90,000 ballots left to process & report. Election officials say they will be able to get through about 20,000 per day
That means it will take days for decisive results. @KGWNews
Here are the current results in the #WA03 from *just* Clark County, where most of the outstanding ballots are
116,803 votes are in right now. Election officials expect to get close to 200,000 by the time all ballots are accounted for. So, we’ll see in todays 5pm update. @KGWNews
116,803 votes are in right now. Election officials expect to get close to 200,000 by the time all ballots are accounted for. So, we’ll see in todays 5pm update. @KGWNews
As always, we’ve got the latest updated election results here at the @KGWNews elections page, highlighting major races in our area.
The #WA03 results haven’t changed since last night, but we expect an update around 5pm or shortly after. Stick with me!
kgw.com/elections
The #WA03 results haven’t changed since last night, but we expect an update around 5pm or shortly after. Stick with me!
kgw.com/elections
GOP House math coming into focus:
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
206 seats are locked down.
R's lead and *should* win: #AZ06, #CA03, #CA40, #CA45, #IA03, #MI10, #MT01, #NY22.
That's 214. Need 4 of these 15: #AZ01 #CA13 #CA22 #CA27 #CA41 #CA47 #CA49 #CO03 #CO08 #CT05 #NM02 #NV03 #OR05 #OR06 #WA03
I'm covering the WA-03 Congressional race, where @MGPforCongress and @joekent16jan19 are competing for a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives.
I'll share updates in this thread - it's a unique race that's earned national attention. #WA03 @KGWNews
I'll share updates in this thread - it's a unique race that's earned national attention. #WA03 @KGWNews
About a month ago, we talked with Republican candidate Joe Kent.
Kent is endorsed by former President Trump and aligns with the more far-right ideals of the Republican Party. He explained his "America First" platform and disavowed white nationalist ties.
kgw.com/article/news/p…
Kent is endorsed by former President Trump and aligns with the more far-right ideals of the Republican Party. He explained his "America First" platform and disavowed white nationalist ties.
kgw.com/article/news/p…
We then talked with Democratic candidate Marie Gluesenkamp Perez.
She said she represents the "middle ground" in this race and said she'd be willing to stray from party lines to represent voters' interests.
#WA03 has been a GOP-led district for 12 years
kgw.com/article/news/p…
She said she represents the "middle ground" in this race and said she'd be willing to stray from party lines to represent voters' interests.
#WA03 has been a GOP-led district for 12 years
kgw.com/article/news/p…
And here's the climactic burst of spending from the Democratic House Majority PAC, putting up...
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
$45.9 million in 57 House races...
adding #NJ11, #NH02, #IL06, #NY25, #IL14, and #NM03 to the board as targeted seats 68-73
Every state has critical races on the ballot — & some are facing a perfect storm where so much is on the line at once.
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
So I'm starting this ongoing thread of all states, to encapsulate as many stakes as I can for a state within 280 characters. As I did in 2020. Let’s go! 🧵
1️⃣ I have to start with Michigan
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
—Ballot measure to overturn abortion ban
—Another to protect elections system
—Supreme court may flip
—Election denier up for SoS
—Governorship, AG, trifecta all at stake
—Can Dems flip state Sen. for 1st time in decades?
—Central for U.S. House
2️⃣ Arizona:
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
—May decide U.S. Senate
—Key House races
—Election deniers up for Gov, AG, SoS
—Measures to weaken ballot initiatives, tighten voter ID
—Measure on tuition for immigrants
—Prosecutor of nation's 4th biggest county
—PSC flips?
—Horne's comeback?
—🎇for school boards
Are you a voter in SW WA State?
Not sure whom you will vote for in the US House race in #WA03?
By the end of this #debate, you will be sure, and I guarantee it will be @MGPforCongress
cvtv.org/vid_link/35251…
Not sure whom you will vote for in the US House race in #WA03?
By the end of this #debate, you will be sure, and I guarantee it will be @MGPforCongress
cvtv.org/vid_link/35251…
Wow, @JoeKent claims the Feds stopped Salmon Fishing in the Columbia River Gorge.
Nope. The Columbia River Compact (local Oregon/WA people make it up) made some restrictions, but not everywhere.
wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/manage…
Details:
oregonlive.com/sports/2022/09…
Nope. The Columbia River Compact (local Oregon/WA people make it up) made some restrictions, but not everywhere.
wdfw.wa.gov/fishing/manage…
Details:
oregonlive.com/sports/2022/09…
Joe Kent is WRONG for SW WA. Why? Just listen to him.
April 2021 post by Kent on @YouTube (where he turned comments off, like he can't take the heat from future constituents) after a visit on Steve Bannon's WarRoom show:
April 2021 post by Kent on @YouTube (where he turned comments off, like he can't take the heat from future constituents) after a visit on Steve Bannon's WarRoom show:
Because local media won't do the work and ballot drops are happening in 30 days.
1/9 In MGP's recent campaign ad you can see her rose city antifa inspired "rose" on her work coveralls
1/9 In MGP's recent campaign ad you can see her rose city antifa inspired "rose" on her work coveralls
2/9 other variations of the rose city antifa logo that could have been used to design MGP's "rose" patch.
3/9 Their auto shop signage has both rose city antifa inspired roses placed exactly like the rose city antifa logo. Another way of telling antifa that their shop supports & is one of them.
🚨2022 FLIPPABLE HOUSE SEATS🚨
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
The magic numbers: 5⃣ and 3⃣0⃣
5⃣: Average point swing improvement for Dem candidates in House Special Elections Dem over 2020 Presidential margins.
3⃣0⃣: Number of GOP-held House seats Trump won by five points or less, or that Biden won.
🧵👇
Race: #TX34
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Democrat: Vicente Gonzalez (@VoteVicente)
Republican: Rep. Mayra Flores
2020 Margin: Biden +15.7
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/vicente…
Race: #CA22
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
Democrat: Rudy Salas (@RudySalasCA)
Republican: Rep. David Valadao
2020 Margin: Biden +13.1
Donate: secure.actblue.com/donate/salaswe…
I know the typical election go-to sites are reporting slow, so let me break some down. Cowlitz gave @HerreraBeutler (surprisingly) a net 46 to put her up 303 over @joekent16jan19. But Clark dumped 1,116 and Kent netted 813, putting him in second place.
Clark breaks are big.
Clark breaks are big.
While we wait, it appears Thurston County has more votes than previously expected and @joekent16jan19 leads @HerreraBeutler in that county.
Correction: Clark dump was 19,967 and it netted @joekent16jan19 1,116. Numbers blur at this point a little folks. Apologies.
But Clark remaining looks good for Kent, with biggest dump remaining in pro-Kent areas.
But Clark remaining looks good for Kent, with biggest dump remaining in pro-Kent areas.
#AZ06: Juan Ciscomani takes 48-20 lead with 53% of estimated GOP vote in. For Dems, former state Sen. Kirsten Engel leads state Rep. Daniel Hernandez 61-34 with 65% of estimated vote in. Biden would have won new seat just 49.3-49.2
57% of estimated vote in for #WA03 top-two. Dem Marie Perez at 32%, pro-impeachment Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler leads Trump-backed Joe Kent 25-20.
Over in #WA04 top-two, pro-impeachment Rep. Dan Newhouse at 27. Dem Doug White leads Trump's guy, Loren Culp 26-22 for second.
Polls have closed in Missouri and most of Kansas and Michigan for a huge election night. We'll be liveblogging the results and tweeting here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
While we wait for our first results, check out our preview of what to watch here dailykos.com/stories/2022/8…
We've also put together our cheat-sheet of the night's big races, which we'll be updating as contests are called docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
