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THREAD:

How important is a goalkeeper’s ability to prevent shots?

Is it of comparable importance to shot stopping ability?

In this thread I will investigate these questions & outline my ExG prevented model using #Alisson as an example.

#PremierLeague #LFC #GKUnion #EPL
Every action a GK performs can be separated into 3 categories:

Save-> here the GK attempts to block the ball going into the goal

Distribution-> here the GK attempts to play the ball to a teammate

Interception-> here the GK attempts to stop the ball from reaching an opponent
Evaluating GK intercepting from public data is difficult as most stats providers split intercepting actions between recoveries, tackles, interceptions, punches, & claims, & the differences between the categories are unclear & not relevant to interception difficulty/importance.
Read 28 tweets
Watford’s 2018/19 financial results covered a season that the club understandably described as “successful”, improving their position in the Premier League from 14th to 11th and reaching the FA Cup Final (beaten by #MCFC). Some thoughts in the following thread #WatfordFC
#WatfordFC made a £9.8m profit before tax, compared to a £31m loss in the prior year, as revenue rose £19m (15%) to a record £148m, and profit on player sales increased from £3m to £22m. Also boosted by a £4.5m settlement following Marco Silva’s acrimonious move to #EFC.
#WatfordFC £19m revenue growth was mainly due to a £15m (14%) increase in broadcasting to £124m, thanks to the higher Premier League finishing position and FA Cup run, while there were also rises in commercial, up £3m (28%) to £13.6m, and match day, up £1.3m (16%) to £9.2m.
Read 39 tweets
1/ I've been following the debate about #TacticalVoting in UK #GeneralElection2019, and particularly the controversy about @BestForBritain's site getvoting.org, which is accused of giving "bogus" advice based on a fairly opaque methodology theguardian.com/politics/2019/…
2/ So... I decided to get the constituency-by-constituency data from this site and a couple of others (tactical.vote & tacticalvote.co.uk) to see how they compare, and whether they pass a basic "plausibility" test based on % voting swing needed from 2017 results
3/ I narrowed down my analysis to the 317 seats won by @Conservatives at the 2017 General election, since these are the core focus for tactical voting, whether to get the #ToriesOut or #StopBrexit. This chart shows which party came second in each of these constituencies in 2017
Read 12 tweets

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