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As of Sunday evening, it's looking more likely that the Carolinas won't have to worry about #Ian slipping back into the Atlantic for more East Coast mischief.
That doesn't mean portions of the Carolinas will escape unscathed, however. Why? Let's take a look ... 🧵1/x
That doesn't mean portions of the Carolinas will escape unscathed, however. Why? Let's take a look ... 🧵1/x
This evening, the models are still uncertain about just where in Florida or just when #Ian will land. The further up the west coast it goes, the later the arrival. But once there, it looks like the storm will remain inland. 2/x
There are some outliers among the models that still steer a weakened Ian back into the Atlantic. Given the projected steering as the storm reaches Florida, I don't see it. If #Ian reaches NC, it's likely taking an inland route. 3/x
91L is up to an 80 percent chance of developing this week, per the NHC. Once it does, it will be named Danielle -- and we'll have a better idea who the storm would eventually threaten -- if anyone. 1/x 
This morning, modeling seems to indicate a slw strengthening, then a recurve somewhere north of the Bahamas. Obviously that's good news for the Carolinas -- especially after last night's GFS run. 2/x
That said, there are 3 things that need to happen before we can put confidence in not having Danielle threaten.
1. Consolidation
2. Strength
3. Synoptics
Let's take each in order: 4/x
1. Consolidation
2. Strength
3. Synoptics
Let's take each in order: 4/x
