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Dan Norris has won #WestOfEnglandMayor for #Labour making it one of the few LAB gains in #LocalElections2021.
In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see bit.ly/3uqY0Uu) the Conservatives would just hold on!
So what went wrong?
My...
@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15
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In doing so, he also wrecked my forecast (see bit.ly/3uqY0Uu) the Conservatives would just hold on!
So what went wrong?
My...
@adam_ldr @StephenSumner15
/1
... blog makes it clear that my forecast was in fact the minimum CON needed to do to win & was based on a number of assumptions.
The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.
First an aside.
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The final vote tally saw LAB with 40k votes ahead of CON & crunching the numbers breaks the reason for this into 4 parts.
First an aside.
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When analysing elections using Supplementary Vote, it's more correct to look at number of votes rather than vote shares.
That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.
So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...
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That's because there are a number of steps to the final vote totals & errors can multiply along the way.
So the 1st reason for the 40k difference is ...
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