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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)
To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter
Methodology:
Iโll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
Iโll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf
Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
ฮ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-โฆ
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
ฮ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-โฆ
There's the spending boom I was waiting for...the NRCC drops $19.27 million on 31 House races, pulling ahead of its 2020 pace and adding the Biden +20% #PA12 to the board as targeted seat #64, backing Mike Doyle for retiring 14-term Dem Mike Doyle's seat.
The @NRCC finally starts to unload its war chest in earnest, dropping $14 million in 23 races.
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
It has now spent ~$43.9 million in 28 races (vs the DCCC's $76.7 million in 42 races)
๐จ AXIOS: Democrats are planning to cancel their ad buy supporting โฆBrad Pfaff in #WI03 and Michelle Vallejo in #TX15
Here is Vulnerable Rep. Tom O'Halleran screaming for help
Difference between a Republican & Democrat candidate
Iโm Brad Pfaff, the Democratic nominee for #WI03.
We may have the most out of touch and extreme Republican opponents out here in western Wisconsin. Letโs review some of his greatest hits and letโs stop in together in November. ๐งต
We may have the most out of touch and extreme Republican opponents out here in western Wisconsin. Letโs review some of his greatest hits and letโs stop in together in November. ๐งต
Letโs start with the fact heโs one of five Republicans running for Congress who was at the Capitol on January 6th and he used campaign funds to pay for his trip. Derrick, to this day, still denies attending the insurrectionโฆbut we have photo evidence.
It gets worse. Did you know he was fined and is on probation for taking a fully-loaded gun through airport security, with one round in the chamber?
jsonline.com/story/news/polโฆ
jsonline.com/story/news/polโฆ
๐งต๐ป๐ฏ๐น๐ฌ๐จ๐ซ: The Supreme Court lit 49 years of precedent on fire, creating the nightmare reality the Republican Party has worked so damn hard for.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
Let's take a look at where we are and where the GOP will drag our country, kicking & screaming, if given more of an opportunity.
At least three vulnerable House Republicans & three @NRCC-endorsed challengers support ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐ ๐คโ๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ (including @BlackmanForAZ in #AZ02 who also ๐ ๐ข๐๐๐๐๐ก๐ ๐๐๐๐๐๐๐ ๐ค๐๐๐๐ ๐คโ๐ ๐๐๐ก ๐๐๐๐๐ก๐๐๐๐ ).
Big shakeup in DCCC's House battlefield this AM. The committee named 12 challengers to its "Red to Blue" program, added 3 members to its "Frontline" program, added 8 new GOP/Dem districts to its "In Play" list, and removed 6 GOP-held districts from its target list.
Red to Blue challengers:
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
#CA22: @RudySalasCA
#CA45: @jfchen
#CO07: @pettersen4co
#IA01: @BohannanIowa
#IA02: @LizMathis1
#IL13: @Nikki4Congress
#MI03: @HillaryScholten
#NM02: @Gabe_NM
#NY01: @VoteJackie4NY
#NY11: @MaxRose4NY
#OH01: @votelandsman
#OH13: @EmiliaSykesOH
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! Itโs the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
13th term Wisconsin Democratic Rep. Ron Kind's retirement from Congress is front page news in his #WI03 district this morning.
Kind D-WI:"Representing the people at home has been the honor of my life,but I never intended it to be the honor of my entire life. For 26yrs,Iโve flown to & from Washington,DC & traveled the 18 counties of the most beautiful Congressional District in the Nation almost every wk."
Kind D-WI: "But 26 years is enough--itโs time for me to step back. My wife, Tawni, and I are looking forward to entering the next chapter of our lives."
This is a decent test of whether voters in a Trump/Dem district (#WI03) are actually moved by stories about 1/6 or react with a big yawn (FWIW, Van Orden has called violence at the Capitol "absolutely horrific"). thedailybeast.com/gop-candidate-โฆ
The uncomfortable reality for Dems is that the pro- democratic norms arguments that are the most compelling to the anti-Trump base tend to be the *least* effective messages w/ persuadable/Trump voters.
What do they care about? Pre-existing conditions, stimulus checks, etc.
What do they care about? Pre-existing conditions, stimulus checks, etc.
If Dems make "but the GQP wants to end democracy!" the centerpiece of the race in #WI03, I'd like to prematurely congratulate them on:
1) feeling proud they "stood up for what's right"
2) losing a seat critical to the House majority
1) feeling proud they "stood up for what's right"
2) losing a seat critical to the House majority
Speaker's election underway. Conducted aloud on House floor, alphabetically by member-elect surname.
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Winner needs majority of members-elect voting for a candidate by surname. Can win with fewer than 218.
Pelosi, McCarthy formally nominated, but members-elect can vote for anyone
Blue Dog Rep. Jim Cooper (D-TN) voted for Pelosi for speaker for the 1st time since 2009.
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Cooper voted "present" in 2019 and for Tim Ryan in 2017, Colin Powell in both 2015 elections and in 2013, and Heath Shuler in 2011. #tn05
Rep. Jason Crow (D-CO), who voted for Tammy Duckworth for speaker as a freshman in 2019, voted for Pelosi after an easy re-election win in #co06
Based on a variety of number-crunching sources, esp. @DKElections, it looks like there were at most 16 districts out of 435 that split their tickets between president/House in '20 - likely an all-time low.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
For perspective, there were 83 such districts in '08 and 35 in '16.
Biden/R districts (9):
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
#CA21 Valadao
#CA25 Garcia
#CA39 Kim
#CA48 Steel
#FL27 Salazar
#NE02 Bacon
#NY24 Katko
#PA01 Fitzpatrick
#TX24 Van Duyne
Trump/D districts (7/8?):
#IL17 Bustos
#IA03 Axne
#ME02 Golden
#MI08 Slotkin
#NJ03 Kim
#NY22 Brindisi (?)
#PA08 Cartwright
#WI03 Kind
Correction to first tweet: at most 17, if Brindisi (D) prevails in #NY22. Would still be less than half of the 35 in 2016.
It's Labor Day 2020 and both the Democratic and Republican Vice Presidential candidates will be campaigning in person today in Wisconsin during COVID-19 pandemic.
Vice President Mike Pence will deliver his Labor Day campaign address today at Dairyland Power Cooperative in La Crosse, WI on jobs, the workforce and the economy. c-span.org/video/?475537-โฆ @cspan
Vice presidential candidate Senator Kamala Harris (D-CA) campaigns in Milwaukee and participates in a roundtable with workers and business leaders on this Labor Day. c-span.org/video/?475502-โฆ @cspan
Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin are holding Congressional primaries today and Georgia is holding primary runoff elections for several House seats.
In Connecticut, Democrats hold all 5 House seats and none are facing primary challengers. Republicans will challenge Democrats this fall in all 5 seats with 2 primaries in 1st and 2nd Districts held today. GOP winners will face Reps. Larson and Courtney respectively in November.
In Minnesota, #MNSen primary elections are being held today. 1st term Democratic Senator Tina Smith face four DFL primary challengers and 5 Republican candidates including former Rep. Jason Lewis who was endorsed by President Trump are running to be their party's nominee.
Time for super pacs to start running ads in these districts letting voters know if these people vote for impeachment, they get voted out. Period.
We're gonna make these people famous today
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
From now until Wednesday, it's time to put pressure on these Dems:
You vote with AOC and impeachment, and you're toast. She's in New York City and doesn't give a shit you're in a red district.
Voting for censure is your only way out
HERE THEY ARE
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom OโHalleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
PRESSURE THEM TO VOTE AGAINST IMPEACHMENT. ONLY CENSURE CAN SAVE THEM.
Tom OโHalleran #AZ01
@RepOHalleran
@TomOHalleran
(202) 225-3361
Lucy McBath #GA06
@RepLucyMcBath
@LucyMcBath
(202) 225-4501
#MarchforTrump ๐ข๐๐บ๐ธ๐ฏ
Men & Women! ๐๐บ
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
Men & Women! ๐๐บ
October 17th @ 10 AM
US Capitol AND Locations across the country!
TrumpMarch.com
#KAG #MAGA #WomenForTrump #stopimpeachmentnow #StandWithTrump #standwithPOTUS
๐จ๐จ๐จ
๐ขWe will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.๐ข
๐ขWe will be having protests outside of congressional district offices in the following districts.๐ข
.#ComplicitCongress THREAD:
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.
ALL Dem House Reps who enable Trump by NOT supporting #ImpeachmentInquiry.
Alphabetical by state. Plz RT & call them.
#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DONโT support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy
A minority of Dem House Reps DONโT support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran
#CO07 @RepPerlmutter
#CT01 @RepJohnLarson
#CT02 @RepJoeCourtney
#CT03 @RosaDeLauro
#CT05 @RepJahanaHayes
#FL05 @RepAlLawsonJr
#FL07 @RepStephMurphy
#ComplicitCongress
A minority of Dem House Reps DONโT support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala
A minority of Dem House Reps DONโT support #Impeachment Inquiry:
#FL13 @RepCharlieCrist
#FL14 @USRepKCastor
#FL20 @RepHastingsFL
#FL21 @RepLoisFrankel
#FL23 @DWSTweets
#FL24 @RepWilson
#FL27 @RepShalala
Call & tell these AL & AZ Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry;
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
#AL07 @RepTerriSewell 202-225-2665
Arizona
#AZ01 @TomOhalleran 202-225-3361
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump by being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
#CA05 @RepThompson 202-225-3311
#CA07 @RepBera 202-225-5716
#CA09 @RepMcNerney 202-225-1947
#CA10 @RepJoshHarder 202-225-4540
#CA12 @SpeakerPelosi 202-225-4965
Call & tell these California Reps to STOP enabling Trump & being AGAINST @HouseJudiciary #IMPEACHMENT inquiry:
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
#CA16 @RepJimCosta 202-225-3341
#CA18 @RepAnnaEshoo 202-225-8104
#CA20 @RepJimmyPanetta 202-225-2861
#CA21 @RepTJCox 202-225-4695
Hey #WISCONSIN
Hereโs a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueWI
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
Hereโs a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueWI
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMuniciโฆ
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterIโฆ
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPoโฆ
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMuniciโฆ
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterIโฆ
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPoโฆ
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Vs GOP Bryan Steil
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
VOTE November 6!
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlueWI #VoteBlue
#wiunion
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Vs GOP Bryan Steil
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
VOTE November 6!
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlueWI #VoteBlue
#wiunion
Hey #Wisconsin!
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 14th!
Register online/by mail by July 25th. In-person by August 10th at municipal clerkโs office
THREAD below of your Democratic Candidates & Voter INFO with photos & LINKS.
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
#VoteBlue
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 14th!
Register online/by mail by July 25th. In-person by August 10th at municipal clerkโs office
THREAD below of your Democratic Candidates & Voter INFO with photos & LINKS.
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMuniciโฆ
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterIโฆ
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPoโฆ
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMuniciโฆ
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Registerโฆ
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterIโฆ
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPoโฆ
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Cathy Myers
cathymyersforcongress.com
@CathyMyersWI
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
5 GOP running
VOTE AUGUST 14!
#PrimaryElection #VoteBlue
Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache
Cathy Myers
cathymyersforcongress.com
@CathyMyersWI
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
5 GOP running
VOTE AUGUST 14!
#PrimaryElection #VoteBlue
