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2022 #Midterms Simulation: #ArtoftheGerrymander

A Republican House win will be built on gerrymanders (TX/GA/FL/TN/LA, etc.)

To illustrate the need for fair maps, I'm calculating the results using the 2022 votes, but if every state had a Democratic gerrymander. #ElectionTwitter ImageImageImageImage
Methodology:

I’ll apply the difference in Presidential margin to the House result. Thanks @davesredist @mikemathieu @vest_team + @DKElections @PoliticsWolf

Keen to see how my maps perform over the decade; tried to comply with state law if partisan intent were allowed to stand.
#ArtoftheGerrymander: #Alabama
Trump 62.0% - Biden 36.6%
Real delegation: 6R-1D
Gerrymandered: 5R-2D
Δ Share of D seats: 14% => 28%
Easy Democratic pick-up of a safe new African American seat.
davesredistricting.org/join/ff857256-… ImageImageImage
Read 111 tweets
NEW List of Dem candidates running for Congress in 2022 against GOP incumbents! Please take a minute and follow them! It’s the least we can do to show our support for the folks who are literally trying to save our democracy! RESISTERS RESIST #VoteThemAllOut2022
@abbybroyles vs Stephanie Bice House #OK05 electoral objector
@adammgentle vs Mario Diaz Balart House #FL25 electoral objector
@AlishaKShelton vs Don Bacon House #NE02
@AndreaRSalinas House #OR06
@AngieNixon vs Scott Franklin House #FL14 electoral objector
@AnnieAndrewsMD vs Nancy Mace House #SC01
@anthonyjtristan vs Michael Cloud House #TX27 electoral objector
@ashley_ehasz vs Brian Fitzpatrick House #PA01
@AramisAyalaFL House #FL10
@atticaforky House #KY03
@baxterstapleton vs Michael Turner House #OH10
Read 38 tweets
Connecticut, Minnesota, Vermont, and Wisconsin are holding Congressional primaries today and Georgia is holding primary runoff elections for several House seats.
In Connecticut, Democrats hold all 5 House seats and none are facing primary challengers. Republicans will challenge Democrats this fall in all 5 seats with 2 primaries in 1st and 2nd Districts held today. GOP winners will face Reps. Larson and Courtney respectively in November.
In Minnesota, #MNSen primary elections are being held today. 1st term Democratic Senator Tina Smith face four DFL primary challengers and 5 Republican candidates including former Rep. Jason Lewis who was endorsed by President Trump are running to be their party's nominee.
Read 16 tweets
Tested it out with this new KY map. Based on 2016-2019 results, intrigued how it would do in 2020. The #KY04 (R+7 PVI) seems more competitive than the real #KY06 (R+9), with the movement in the Cincinnati and Lexington suburbs. 2/27 davesredistricting.org/join/d389d8e2-…
However, I also did a bunch of Democratic gerrymanders after 2012 redistricting to compare with the real Republican ones. Thought I’d review how my designs performed in light of 2016. The contrast shows just how much of a difference partisan control makes (spoiler: a lot). 3/27
Read 27 tweets
Hey #WISCONSIN
Here’s a THREAD all your Democratic Candidates #Midterms2018!
with photos, Twitter & Websites.
& Voter Info links to Registration, Absentee, ID, Poll Worker
Use wherever helpful.
#VoteBlueWI
VOTE NOVEMBER 6, 2018!
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1

Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache

Vs GOP Bryan Steil
Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.

VOTE November 6!
#Midterms2018 #VoteBlueWI #VoteBlue
#wiunion
Read 19 tweets
Hey #Wisconsin!
#PrimaryElection on AUGUST 14th!
Register online/by mail by July 25th. In-person by August 10th at municipal clerk’s office
THREAD below of your Democratic Candidates & Voter INFO with photos & LINKS.
#WI01 #WI02 #WI03 #WI04 #WI05 #WI06 #WI07 #WI08
#VoteBlue
VOTER REGISTRATION in #Wisconsin
Register online myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Application elections.wi.gov/forms/voters
Send to Municipal Clerk myvote.wi.gov/en-US/MyMunici…
Check Registration here myvote.wi.gov/en-us/Register…
Info here: myvote.wi.gov/en-us/MyVoterI…
Polling Place myvote.wi.gov/en-us/FindMyPo…
Democratic Candidates for #Wisconsin #WI01 #WI1

Randy Bryce
randybryceforcongress.com
@IronStache

Cathy Myers
cathymyersforcongress.com
@CathyMyersWI

Incumbent Paul Ryan (R) retiring.
5 GOP running

VOTE AUGUST 14!
#PrimaryElection #VoteBlue
Read 18 tweets

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