Miles Deutscher Profile picture
Nov 7, 2022 β€’ 36 tweets β€’ 10 min read β€’ Read on X
Sam Bankman-Fried was once admired as the king of crypto.

Now Alameda and FTX are rumoured to be on the brink of insolvency.

🧡: Here's how it all went wrong for SBF and FTX. πŸ‘‡
For a long time, SBF was idolised in the space.

Famous for his:
β€’ Arbitrage trading
β€’ Founding FTX and Alameda
β€’ Hugely successful investments like $SOL

Sam accrued an impressive estimated net worth of $10-14.5b at his peak.
In recent times, FTX has been extremely busy leading huge fundraising rounds for new projects.

Aptos and Sui are the two most recent examples. Image
Sam was invincible.

Despite Luna causing chaos, he used the situation as leverage to continue an aggressive expansion plan.

β€’ Bailed out BlockFi for $240m
β€’ Bid for Voyager's assets
β€’ Considered bailing out Celsius Image
However, in the background there were some cracks starting to appear.

Eyebrows started to raise when Alameda CEO Sam Trabucco suddenly resigned.

Additionally, a month later FTX President Brett Harrison stepped down.

These resignations occurred just before it was revealed that FTX was facing some legal trouble in the form of a securities regulator probe. Image
SBF has a clear interest in politics, evidenced by his involvement in the upcoming midterm elections, in which he has donated almost $50m.

This comes after his plan to donate $1b in the 2024 U.S. presidential election (which he later backtracked on).

Clearly Sam has political interests at heart.
Although public sentiment was becoming more negative towards Sam, the DCCPA draft bill marked a real turning point for the public's perception.

A draft of the bill was first leaked online.

Sam has seemingly been supporting the bill.

But despite Sam trying to play the "good guy" on Twitter, there were clear red flags throughout the bill which could pose significant threats to DeFi.

Multiple key industry figures have spoken out against the bill, most notably Bitboy, who is working on his own.

Erik Voorhees famously quizzed SBF on his stance during a Bankless interview.

This clip (which went viral) led to continued skepticism amongst the crypto community.

The public damage for Sam was immense.

Sentiment shifted as people realised his intentions may be different from what was first thought.

This shift in sentiment was the precursor for what was to come next, and a major contributor behind the severity of the recent FUD.
Concerns started to bubble on Wednesday when Alameda's balance sheet was leaked.

It revealed that "the net equity in the Alameda business is actually FTX’s own centrally controlled and printed-out-of-thin-air token" - Cory Klippsten. Image
.@DylanLeClair_ did a great thread breaking down some of the concerns surrounding the balance sheet.

One of the accounts that first called Celsius' collapse published a report titled "Is Alameda Insolvent?"

The report labelled Alameda's situation as "precarious to say the least."

More rumours started proliferating, and the FUD machine entered full force.

Allegations of FTX's insolvency started circulating.

Then, we saw a MASSIVE $584m worth of $FTT transferred to Binance.

CZ confirmed that is was in fact Binance who executed the transfer.

We got full confirmation that Binance was exiting its $FTT position yesterday, when CZ announced his decision "to liquidate any remaining FTT on our books."

CZ fired shots at Sam, stating that they were selling as a result of "learning from $LUNA".

CZ indirectly referenced SBF's lobbying by claiming that he "won't support people who lobby against other industry players behind their backs."

FTX's primary token $FTT dumped as a result, dropping 15% from its weekly highs.

However, it has found strong support around the $22 region. Image
Caroline, the CEO of Alameda Research, was forced to issue a response to CZ's sale.

In my opinion, this response felt desperate and was somewhat of a red flag.

We all know what happened last time someone tried to "steady" the ship.

$FTT isn't the only worry though, Alameda holds many more tokens which could be subject to downside pressure if the situation worsens.

The FUD surrounding FTX has resulted in staggering outflows, as people rush to withdraw funds.

The threat of a "bank run" was looming yesterday as some people were forced to wait 4 hours to process withdrawals.

Sam recently issued a response stating that FTX is fine and assets are fine.

However, I'm treating the situation with caution as when there's smoke, there's often fire.

The chances of FTX being insolvent are quite slim, but why take chances in crypto when there's viable alternatives.
I hope you've found this thread interesting.

Like/Retweet the first tweet below if you can. πŸ’™
As this situation evolves, I'll keep you updated by posting underneath this thread.

So make sure to follow me @milesdeutscher and turn on post notifications to stay updated.
Update #1: Looks like FTX has stopped processing withdrawals.
Binance has fully acquired FTX. 🀯
Binance has the discretion to pull out of the deal at any time, but their intention is to fully acquire FTX as per the terms of the LOI.
FTX withdrawals still aren’t processing as uncertainty looms surrounding the Binance acquisition.

It’s a dark day for crypto and I feel for all those affected. 😞

This thread breaks down what happened in a technical sense.
It looks like the deal is on the brink of falling through. 😬
It’s official. The deal is off.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @milesdeutscher

Sep 15
With the crypto market starting to wake up, now's the time to focus.

𝕏 was filled with alpha this week, but much of it was hidden amidst the noise.

I compiled the top 10 alpha tweets I read this week, so you don't have to.πŸ‘‡
1. This last 6 months of chop has created a setup for "massive offside positioning".
2. All signs point towards a 2025 top.
Read 12 tweets
Sep 14
The crypto market is about to catch A LOT of investors off guard.

Don't let that be you.

With Q4 right around the corner, there are some critical factors you NEED to know.

🧡: Here are 10 reasons why Q4 could spark a MONUMENTAL market shift.πŸ‘‡
This thread is going to break down the 10 most important factors that are set to impact the market in Q4.

It will be divided into 3 sections: Seasonality, Macro, and Crypto-Specific factors.

Let's dive in.
Firstly, let's discuss SEASONALITY.

Although market moves (on face value) may seem random, there is compelling evidence to suggest markets (especially crypto) are highly cyclical and are responsive to certain months/periods in the calendar year.
Read 24 tweets
Aug 28
Where is retail right now?

And will they ever return to crypto?

The entire bull market hinges on these 2 questions.

And in this thread, I'll answer them.

🧡: The honest truth about the 2024 crypto cycle (where did retail go?)πŸ‘‡
To fully answer the question of "is retail ever coming back?", first we need to recap what lead us here.
2021 was an explosive year for crypto.

From March 2020 until November 2021, the crypto market rallied 2,672%, with many alts pulling 50-100x+ multiples.

It was a perfect storm of unprecedented money printing, stimulus, and people locked (and bored) at home. Image
Read 42 tweets
Aug 25
With the crypto market starting to wake up, now's the time to pay attention.

𝕏 was filled with alpha this week, but much of it was hidden amidst the noise.

I compiled the top 10 alpha tweets I read this week, so you don't have to.πŸ‘‡
1. #Bitcoin PA is still extremely similar to past cycles. If this pattern continues, the next phase is rapid expansion.
2. Total stablecoin supply is the highest its been in 2+ years.
Read 12 tweets
Aug 22
Solana has created thousands of new millionaires this year.

But you're no longer early.

The BIG profits are made from being EARLY to a new rotation.

There are signs that TRON is next.

🧡: My Ultimate TRON Guide (best meme coins, altcoins & more).πŸ‘‡
In this thread, I'll cover:

β€’ What is TRON?
β€’ Why the TRON chain is poised to grow in 2024 (and beyond)
β€’ Best meme coins
β€’ Top opportunities on the TRON chain

Let's dive in.
Firstly, what is TRON?

TRON is a blockchain for creating decentralised applications.

Its native token is $TRX, which developers can use in their applications.

TRON was founded by @justinsuntron, one of the most prominent and influential figures in crypto.
Read 30 tweets
Aug 11
𝕏 was filled with crypto alpha this week.

But, given the recent volatility - you may have missed it amidst all the noise.

I compiled the top 10 alpha tweets I read this week, so you don't have to.πŸ‘‡
1. We have a nice "early bull setup" on our hands.
Read 12 tweets

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