1/ On Bear Markets
You are down bad? Working at McDonald's? Your ATH net worth is only visible with a telescope? Your gf is wondering where all the money went?
Now what?
You are down bad? Working at McDonald's? Your ATH net worth is only visible with a telescope? Your gf is wondering where all the money went?
Now what?
2/ First, some a couple of background threads that I may reference.
What this all means is different based on what "level" you are at in life and what type of game you are playing.
Levels 1 to Levels 5 described below
What this all means is different based on what "level" you are at in life and what type of game you are playing.
Levels 1 to Levels 5 described below
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1435229502708322313
3/ Also, because I do not want to rewrite my thread from January 1 on "how to make it in crypto?," I am also posting it here.
The title is: "There is one rule only: SURVIVE!" and this still holds. We are going to talk about this today.
The title is: "There is one rule only: SURVIVE!" and this still holds. We are going to talk about this today.
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1477259809493819393
4/ The thread is long but this is the conclusion tweet for general crypto investing
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1477266183984459778
6/ "OK great 6529, but obviously this is not what [many of us] did and now we are down bad. This sucks, I should have sold the top, I should have invested less, etc, etc, etc"
Yes, yes, yes, of course, I know this.
Yes, yes, yes, of course, I know this.
7/ Before I get into details, if you are, in any way feeling suicidal, then you should reach out to friends, family or the national suicide hotline in your country.
Please get off cryptotwitter and get professional assistance asap 🙏
Please get off cryptotwitter and get professional assistance asap 🙏
8/ Now some of you are just regular sad because a week, a month, a year ago, you looked at your crypto balance and saw a very big number and today it is a much smaller number.
So this sucks but also it is normal and 100% of us crypto veterans have lived this MULTIPLE TIMES
So this sucks but also it is normal and 100% of us crypto veterans have lived this MULTIPLE TIMES
9/ Some personal stories. My family & I have fumbled millions/tens of millions of dollars many times in crypto.
I bought my first BTC at $100 in summer 2013. I got my parents in at an average cost basis of $300. We watched it go over $1,000
WE ARE INVESTING GENIUSES
I bought my first BTC at $100 in summer 2013. I got my parents in at an average cost basis of $300. We watched it go over $1,000
WE ARE INVESTING GENIUSES
10/ Then started the long grind down - Mt Gox and then grind, grind, grind, grind down.
My parents capitulated at the absolute bottom in 2015, sold at $250.
Their stake, if they had kept it, would have been 8 figures now.
My parents capitulated at the absolute bottom in 2015, sold at $250.
Their stake, if they had kept it, would have been 8 figures now.
11/ So to recap: my parents bought hundreds of BTC at a cost basis of $300 and somehow managed to lose money.
This is the normal case.
I can count on one hand the number of people from 2013 in my circle (out of hundreds) who managed to: a) buy BTC
and
b) keep it
This is the normal case.
I can count on one hand the number of people from 2013 in my circle (out of hundreds) who managed to: a) buy BTC
and
b) keep it
12/ I spoke to my dad about this last year at BTC $69K
He shrugged it off, laughed: "It is fine, we were stressing too much about it"
My dad has been Level 5 (playing for intrinsic goods, not money) his whole life, well before he had money
He has been an inspiration to watch
He shrugged it off, laughed: "It is fine, we were stressing too much about it"
My dad has been Level 5 (playing for intrinsic goods, not money) his whole life, well before he had money
He has been an inspiration to watch
13/ Let's go to personal fumbles.
I met Vitalik before the pre-sale, heard the Ethereum story for a couple of hours.
But I had had an old school BTC maxi mansplain to me that Vitalik was bright, but did not finish his university coursework; that Ethereum had fatal flaws.
I met Vitalik before the pre-sale, heard the Ethereum story for a couple of hours.
But I had had an old school BTC maxi mansplain to me that Vitalik was bright, but did not finish his university coursework; that Ethereum had fatal flaws.
14/ So I don't buy the presale and then, in full cope mode, doubled down and refused to buy ETH for quite some time.
To recap:
✅Owned plenty of BTC
✅Heard the ETH pitch directly from Vitalik
❌Did not buy ETH pre-sale
Easy 8 figure fumble (maybe 9 figures)
To recap:
✅Owned plenty of BTC
✅Heard the ETH pitch directly from Vitalik
❌Did not buy ETH pre-sale
Easy 8 figure fumble (maybe 9 figures)
15/ December 2017, Lower East Side, martinis at Beauty and Essex, BTC is now $20K.
All my normal tradfi friends:
"WTF dude, sell!"
"I mean, come on, sell half at least!"
"Don't be an idiot, sell some"
All my normal tradfi friends:
"WTF dude, sell!"
"I mean, come on, sell half at least!"
"Don't be an idiot, sell some"
16/ I, of course, tell my buddies "don't worry" and I don't sell any BTC.
About 1 year later, in January 2019, BTC was $3,400, down 83%
And a year after that, BTC was again down to $4K before @cobie (and the Fed) saved the day.
Years of "down bad" after years of "down bad"
About 1 year later, in January 2019, BTC was $3,400, down 83%
And a year after that, BTC was again down to $4K before @cobie (and the Fed) saved the day.
Years of "down bad" after years of "down bad"
17/ And many more, even recently (👋Avax pre-sale, looking at you).
Everyone who has been in crypto long enough has experiences like this.
You are not alone. We have all lived this before. It is the normal and expected part of investing in crypto.
Everyone who has been in crypto long enough has experiences like this.
You are not alone. We have all lived this before. It is the normal and expected part of investing in crypto.
18/ So, what do you do now?
You must survive.
You have to organize your life in crypto and outside of crypto so you can survive the 2020s.
If you survive, you will do OK.
You must survive.
You have to organize your life in crypto and outside of crypto so you can survive the 2020s.
If you survive, you will do OK.
19/ The first thing to do is to look into your emotions, look into how you are taking the drop.
It will teach you about your psychology and how much risk you can tolerate.
Everyone is "John Rambo" when prices are going up.
The down cycle is more instructive though.
It will teach you about your psychology and how much risk you can tolerate.
Everyone is "John Rambo" when prices are going up.
The down cycle is more instructive though.
20/ The second is to completely and utterly ignore your "All Time High Net Worth Number"
This number is bullshit, it is not a real thing and it is completely unhelpful to making good decisions.
Your only job is to look at what your situation is today and make good decisions
This number is bullshit, it is not a real thing and it is completely unhelpful to making good decisions.
Your only job is to look at what your situation is today and make good decisions
21/ The third thing is to accept that you have no idea which way markets are going to move tomorrow, in a month, in a year and in a decade.
This is true for me, it is true for you, it is true for 99.99999% of people.
You have to think about scenarios, not price directions.
This is true for me, it is true for you, it is true for 99.99999% of people.
You have to think about scenarios, not price directions.
22/ Here are 4 scenarios for example:
a) Prices range here for years
b) Prices swing to normal cycle lows of 85% down (BTC $10,000 and ETH $720), range for years, cycle back up
c) post Russian Central Bank sanctions, Central Banks pour into BTC (up only)
d) crypto actually dies
a) Prices range here for years
b) Prices swing to normal cycle lows of 85% down (BTC $10,000 and ETH $720), range for years, cycle back up
c) post Russian Central Bank sanctions, Central Banks pour into BTC (up only)
d) crypto actually dies
23/ The four scenarios above are just an example but you should use a wide range of scenarios.
I don't spend any time worrying about the probability of each scenario.
I make sure I have a reasonable life path for each scenario, even if I am weighted pro-crypto.
I don't spend any time worrying about the probability of each scenario.
I make sure I have a reasonable life path for each scenario, even if I am weighted pro-crypto.
24/ A complete set of life decisions that give you OK outcomes in each of those scenarios is a very good life plan.
Not each outcome might be equally "good", just make sure you can survive each outcome.
If so, you can sleep at night, not make panic moves
Not each outcome might be equally "good", just make sure you can survive each outcome.
If so, you can sleep at night, not make panic moves
25/ You need to think about your non-crypto life, your job if you have one, your fiat cash flows.
For 99.999% of you, you should keep fiat cash flows going as long as possible.
It gives you cash to invest in crypto and it keeps you more balanced during market swings.
For 99.999% of you, you should keep fiat cash flows going as long as possible.
It gives you cash to invest in crypto and it keeps you more balanced during market swings.
26/ You need to think how you can be value-added in the space.
The crypto space is short of people - developers of course, but all types of other people - marketers, technical writers, accountants, lawyers.
Any skill + [crypto knowlege] = 25% to 100% more valuable
The crypto space is short of people - developers of course, but all types of other people - marketers, technical writers, accountants, lawyers.
Any skill + [crypto knowlege] = 25% to 100% more valuable
27/ Having relevant skills is a great way to continue to learn more about crypto, potentially earn money and, maybe, even in time be a new career path.
You don't need to leave your job asap. You can work part-time, you can orient your existing job this way.
You don't need to leave your job asap. You can work part-time, you can orient your existing job this way.
28/ You should segregate your personal life from your crypto emotions.
During the last 9 years when my crypto exposure swung from immaterial to massive and back again (multiple times), I've been the same person to my friends and family
No lambos on upside, no moping on downside
During the last 9 years when my crypto exposure swung from immaterial to massive and back again (multiple times), I've been the same person to my friends and family
No lambos on upside, no moping on downside
29/ Life is short and then you die and all this will be forgotten
Money, while important at Level 1 and Level 2, starts to have very little correlation with happiness in Level 3, Level 4 and Level 5.
[press 'read more' in a tweet or 2 to continue]
Money, while important at Level 1 and Level 2, starts to have very little correlation with happiness in Level 3, Level 4 and Level 5.
[press 'read more' in a tweet or 2 to continue]
30/ So it is absolutely fine to strive for money (that is how our economic system is organized), but keep a part of your brain, a part of your heart permanently separate from money
A cup of coffee with a friend is the same experience regardless of the price of ETH.
A cup of coffee with a friend is the same experience regardless of the price of ETH.
31/ Also, side note, but relevant under the circumstances.
High yield tokens are always a bit fishy.
If you can't figure out where the "free money"* is coming from, you are probably not competent to put any real money in that token.
* There is no free money ever
High yield tokens are always a bit fishy.
If you can't figure out where the "free money"* is coming from, you are probably not competent to put any real money in that token.
* There is no free money ever
32/ ZOOM OUT. Look to 2030. Look to a world of 100% certain increased digitization.
If you are here in NFT twitter in 2022, you are, in fact early to the cutting edge of digitization.
Don't walk out and go home.
Even if you are broke, stay engaged, learn, work.
If you are here in NFT twitter in 2022, you are, in fact early to the cutting edge of digitization.
Don't walk out and go home.
Even if you are broke, stay engaged, learn, work.
33/ If you stay at it for a decade, in crypto, in NFTs, in "metaverse", in our increasingly digital society, your odds of finding something interesting and economically productive are very decent.
The price of tokens will go up and down.
But digitization is up only
The price of tokens will go up and down.
But digitization is up only
34/ So let's wrap it up - the goal is TO SURVIVE.
a) Review your emotions
b) Forget your ATH
c) Don't try to predict markets
d) Plan for various scenarios including "down a lot from here"
e) Keep fiat cash flows
f) Build skills, contribute
g) Be normal, enjoy your life
h) 2030
a) Review your emotions
b) Forget your ATH
c) Don't try to predict markets
d) Plan for various scenarios including "down a lot from here"
e) Keep fiat cash flows
f) Build skills, contribute
g) Be normal, enjoy your life
h) 2030
35/ If this your first time here, we are on a mission to build an open metaverse
https://twitter.com/punk6529/status/1448399827054833668
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