Thread by @kabir_here

Getting going at @CBSNews Decision Desk. I'll mainly be focused on House races. Hoping to use this thread to post interesting analyses from the desk

Polls are closed in #KY6, a House race we're watching closely. We've been expecting this suburban district to be competitive. Votes are trickling in...

While we wait for votes to be counted, here's a tidbit from the National Exit Poll, which is based on in-person interviews of voters as they leave their polling place. Trump isn't on the ballot this year, but he's on (about two-thirds of) voters' minds

In the first 78 House races in which we have vote data (one third of expected vote on avg), Democrats are substantially improving on their 2016 House vote share

We just projected VA10 for the Democrats -- their first flip of the night

Back to #KY6, things are looking good for Republican Andy Barr. Our current best estimate has him winning 53% of the final vote. Would be nice to see some data from Franklin County

We just projected a Republican hold in #KY06, which was a prime Democratic target heading into tonight. Close but no cigar for Amy McGrath. Going to take another look at the over all House picture next

In the affluent suburban districts reporting so far -- which have about 40% of expected vote in -- Democrats are improving on their 2016 vote share by about 4 points. These are places like IL 6, KS 3, and VA 10

Democrat Sharice Davids running about 10 points ahead of Clinton in our best estimate for #KS3. Over in the affluent suburbs of Houston, Democrat Lizzie Fletcher is ahead of incumbent John Culberson by about 5 points in #TX7

Well, the last hour was kinda busy, but I'm back to report an upset brewing in #OK5 -- Democratic candidate leading by a point with most of the vote in

I was writing a tweet about how we're close to a House control call, and then we went ahead and did it: @CBSNews projects Democrats take the House. Here's the minimum # of seats we estimate each party to win. More soon...

Dems are winning about 80% of toss-up races and will likely end up with several more. This regression has been pretty stable throughout the night, though the slope has gotten shallower over time. Ds are doing an average of 5 points better than they did in 2016

#TX7 is the type of district in which Democrats have really improved their vote share from two years ago. Plenty of affluent districts trending in their direction

Worth noting that Democrats improved on their past vote share in other types of districts too. They're improving on their 2016 performance in rural districts that Trump carried by around 8 points -- places like #IA1 and #NY22, which have both flipped

I reran the regression on past vote (without PA races, where redistricting was causing some funkiness). This pattern has been pretty stable throughout the night, with an estimated swing between 4 and 6 points in D vote share since 2016

At this point, we're just waiting to see how big the Democratic House majority will be. It's looking like they will end up with between 225 and 232 seats, which translates to a majority between 15 and 29 seats

So like, something between these two scenarios (CC: @benlauderdale @deliabailey @doug_rivers @jblumenau @SalvantoCBS) cbsnews.com/news/house-dem…