Threading some interesting findings on '22 turnout via U.S. Census Current Population Survey...

52.2% of citizen voting-age population voted in '22 — just a point behind midterm record set in '18

69% of voting-age citizens registered to vote — highest on record (since '02)

1/4 Nearly half (47.1%) of '22 votes were cast ahead of Election Day

While 20 points lower than '20, that's 9 points higher than previous midterm in '18

Nearly one third (31.8%) of voters cast ballots by mail (that's also down double digits from '20, while up 9 points from '18)

2/

NEW poll on GOP primary electorate and why most would still pick Trump

MAGA-friendly ideas widely held among Reps...

Want candidates who say Trump won in '20, don't criticize him, challenge "woke" ideas, make liberals angry

Some are exhausted by Trump, but far outnumbered

1/7 It's early, so voters first picked as many names as they are *considering* for GOP nom — then picked one they would vote for today

Trump at 58% vote, winning more of his considerers than anyone else

DeSantis trails by a lot, but has room to grow among those considering him

2/7

NEW Battleground Tracker out today...

GOP heads into fall still in position to win back House, but advantage a bit smaller after tumultuous summer — trend points toward narrow gains instead of wave

We estimate 226 GOP seats today — 12-seat gain that is smaller than in July

1/5 GOP winning voters who prioritize economy/inflation, so what's tempering overall advantage?

Abortion is big part of story: still on voters' minds, shoring up Dem support, especially with women

More say midterm vote will be to support abortion rights rather than oppose them

2/5

First edition of 2022 Battleground Tracker finds GOP lead of about 25 seats in U.S. House race

We survey voters across all 435 districts and apply an MRP model translating current preferences into seats

Snapshot of electorate, not a forecast — 100 days until Election Day!

1/5 Our poll explains GOP lead cbsn.ws/3JjWqfB

Looks like nature-of--times election: voters most likely to base vote on way things are in country — bad news for party in power

GOP leading among those who cite inflation and those feeling personal impact of higher prices

2/5

New @CBSNewsPoll study this week on voting in U.S.

In first installment, we find that most Americans say they prefer the voting process be left alone or made easier

With fight over voting in national spotlight, partisans see it as high-stakes fight affecting who wins power

1/6 Ds see risk to their electoral fortunes if voting is made harder, while Rs see risk to theirs if it's made easier

Ds say harder voting results in some key constituencies losing power

Rs less likely than Ds to see gains/losses, but on balance predict latter if voting easier

2/6

Thread highlighting takeaways from survey experiment

Given claims that Trump could improve vaccine uptake among supporters, we looked at effects of Trump and Biden endorsing vaccines

Data collected March 17-21 with @YouGov; recontacted people from March 10-13 national poll

1/7

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1374845382430179331

Reps randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Trump getting and endorsing vaccine
No extra question

Dems randomly assigned to see either:
Extra Q about Biden (analogous to above)
No extra question

Idea was to nudge people w/ presidential cue and measure causal effect

2/7

Most Republicans strongly approve of Trump four-year job handling and call Reps voting to impeach disloyal

Rep RVs:
Consider Trump vote in 2024? 74% yes + 14% maybe
69% would prefer congressional candidate loyal to Trump over Republican more independent from him or Democrat

1/5

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1350849752473198595

However, clear splits in party on Biden legitimacy and how GOP should approach admin

Half say they'll consider Biden legitimate president after swearing in — more than recent % saying he's legitimate winner of election

But half — firmer Trump backers — say they still won't

2/5

Well, these Georgia runoff races still look very tight...

Doing our best to disaggregate early & Election-Day votes

Here's a look at Ossoff's vote share among early voters in the counties that have reported so far. He's running avg of about 3 points ahead of his November shares However, Ossoff looks to be underperforming his November support on Election Day

(Darker shading here indicates counties with relatively more of their expected votes counted)

As we thought going into tonight, the relative size of the Election Day turnout is going to be critical

Here are final @CBSNews/@YouGov Battleground Tracker state-level estimates and race ratings...

Biden ahead in states worth 279 electoral votes, and six states Trump needs to hold — worth 96 EVs — are toss ups

Map should look familiar, because our data has been remarkably stable We're seeing huge splits in vote choice between survey respondents who report having voted already and those who plan to vote on Election Day

Will watch this carefully on Nov 3: big task this year is figuring out which types of votes have been reported and what's still out there

Along these lines, only 6% of likely voters nationwide say they're watching debate today to decide who to vote for

73% say they're watching to see how their candidate does

Pre-debate poll fielded Sep 25-28 by @YouGov — more about it at @CBSNewsPoll blog: cbsnews.com/live-news/cbsn…

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1310604769761918978

So how did that debate make you feel?

Annoyed, according to 69% of likely voters nationwide

By contrast, just 17% report feeling informed

Results from instant poll we just fielded with @YouGov (n=1,039; MOE: ±3.4 points)

New polling of Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina

Voters say SCOTUS vacancy adds importance to presidential election that already had high stakes

Horse race among likely voters...
📈GA: Trump +1 (was Biden +1 in Aug)
📉NC: Biden +2 (was Biden +4 in Aug)
📊SC: Trump +10 Georgia, North Carolina, and South Carolina each have Republican Senator up for reelection...

Of these three, Republicans' best chance of holding seat currently looks to be in Georgia, where incumbent David Perdue leads challenger Jon Ossoff by 5 points (up 3 points from August)

New @CBSNews/@YouGov polls in Arizona & Minnesota

AZ's been in GOP column all but once since Eisenhower days, while MN has 40-year stretch of voting Democratic

Arizona D+3
Biden 47%
Trump 44%
MOE: ±3.9 pts

Minnesota D+9
Biden 50%
Trump 41%
MOE ±3.6 pts

cbsnews.com/news/biden-tru… Biden has moved out to a small lead Arizona, up from tied race we saw in July

Coronavirus response still weighing on Trump numbers: many blame Trump admin; Biden leads by 13 pts on who would better handle outbreak

Trump's still very much in race, bolstered by strong GOP support

Our new polling in Wisconsin and U.S. shows a remarkably stable race, despite party conventions and recent unrest

Re: protests, Biden said by more to be trying to calm situation, while Trump said by more to be trying to encourage fighting

MOEs:
U.S. +/- 2.4 pts
Wisc +/- 3.7 pts Voters nationwide say better way to end protests is to make police reforms and address discrimination, rather than use law enforcement to punish protesters

New @CBSNews/@YouGov polling of Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — two crucial states for Trump in '16, thanks in large part to late deciders

Today, both lean Democratic: Biden leads each by 6 points

Voters say he'd do better job handling outbreak, negating Trump edge on economy

1/5 Trump gets negative marks on handling outbreak in both states (and all battlegrounds we've polled)

Most don't think he's doing all he can to fight outbreak, and many still concerned about catching it

Coronavirus views more tightly correlated w/ vote than economic views are

2/5

New piece analyzing perceptions of Biden and Trump's ideology, using @CBSNews/@YouGov data in GA & NC
cbsnews.com/news/do-voters…

Notable Team Trump strategy: tie Biden to "radical left"

https://twitter.com/NicoleSganga/status/1290271103852535808

Resonating with voters? And how extreme/moderate do they feel Trump is? Georgia RVs:
55% say Biden liberal (36% very + 19% somewhat)
24% say moderate

More likely to say *very* liberal than somewhat liberal — former are mostly conservatives & Trump voters who view Biden as out of step

Moderates view Biden differently: 45% plurality call him moderate

What's behind horse race numbers in GA & NC?

Biden has made inroads with White voters: relative to '16, Trump share of White vote down 12 pts in GA and 7 pts in NC

Coupled with Biden's overwhelming support among Black voters, both races look very competitive at the moment!

1/9 Among White voters, dramatic split between those with & without college degrees, more so than in Upper Midwest

College whites fast becoming key to Democratic hopes: Biden outperforming Clinton figures by double digits

Trump still leads them in GA — will blue shift persist?

2/9

A couple more competitive contests in the Sun Belt...

Our new Georgia and North Carolina polls add to picture of expanded electoral map: Trump won both, but now rated Toss Up

GA: Biden +1
NC: Biden +4

(Polls of RVs fielded July 28-31)

Highlighting some of our findings...

1/9 Views of Trump's handling of coronavirus outbreak are underwater in both GA and NC (as they are nationally)

Ratings continue to be bolstered by Republicans saying he's doing good job

More voters overall say Biden would do good job handling outbreak

2/9

More from our @CBSNews/@YouGov battleground polls: how should we interpret Biden-Trump enthusiasm gaps?

cbsnews.com/news/trump-bid… We find greater enthusiasm about "voting in the election in November" among Trump supporters, especially in Arizona and Texas polling we did earlier in this month

Enthusiasm gap ranges from 2-9 points, depending on state

(Note different field periods for AZ/FL/TX & MI/OH below)

Took a closer look at likely voters who are *not* supporting Trump or Biden in the latest @CBSNews/@YouGov polling...

They make up 8% currently: 4% third party + 4% not sure

These numbers have barely budged since May, but could change as more people tune into 2020 campaign

1/5

https://twitter.com/kabir_here/status/1287379647471263750

First thing to note is lower numbers relative to 2016

Different methodology, but @CBSNews/@nytimes surveys had 13-14% combined third-party/undecided from Sep-Oct

Surveys often overstate third-party vote, as many of these voters settle on major-party candidate or don't vote

2/5

Trends we're seeing in @CBSNews/@YouGov Battleground Tracker data that help explain Biden's current advantage...

Main driver seems to be White voters unhappy with Trump, and this includes a variety of different demographic groups (borne out by both latest U.S. poll and MRP)

1/4 Gotta distinguish current margins and *gains* from past

Trump leads White men by double digits, but Biden has cut into his margin, even more than with White women

Yes, White women w/ college degrees dislike Trump, but Biden gains with White, non-college men at least as big

2/4

Thread: new @CBSNews/@YouGov polling of U.S. adults, and voters in Michigan & Ohio

See divisions over several matters shaping public health and race relations, which are tied to vote choice and currently accrue to Biden’s advantage

U.S.: Biden +10
MI: Biden +6
OH: Trump +1

1/5 Public still expresses concern about coronavirus; most parents wary of sending children back to school and say Trump doesn’t care as much about risks to kids as Biden does; and most Americans support ideas of Black Lives Matter movement — Biden leading among all these groups

2/5