Thread by @hareng_rouge

Aged well, this.

H2 weighting often a mirage if not pure misdirection - but my bet is that K3C are far from being rogues or incompetent. The below is therefore perhaps an opportunity.

#K3C HY results' fly in the ointment is Corp Finance. Results published on 21/1/19 up to end of Nov 18. Tried to check image metadata to get an idea of how it has been since - didn't work but there's an easier way: they publish deals online! X-ref with their twitter, you get:

12 completed sales. Versus a WIP pipeline at half year of 11 with two months left in the financial year. I suspect #K3C may post a rather positive surprise here, at odds with the drifting price action.

Voilà, #K3C update is out. Translation:

"The transactions continue to progress"
= It has been over 4 months.

"These transactions continue to experience challenges"
= We're feeding them through a tube

"May not close within the current FY"
= Soon we'll switch off the respirator

Multiple, unrelated transactions all simultaneously slip from H1/19 to H2/19
Multiple, unrelated transactions all simultaneously slip from H2/19 to H1/20
Yet outlook for FY20 is unchanged.

#K3C is now back to its pre-update price.

Fool me once shame on you, fool me twice..

#K3C

Trinity: What's he doing?

Morpheus: He's starting to believe

#K3C

Neo: Why do my eyes hurt?

Morpheus: You've never used them before

I'll translate the #K3C update:

The pipeline of "deals" have now slipped into next year / advanced rigor mortis.

Once we sign off on the death certificates we'll then match our "expectations" to whatever is left.

These will become your expectations.

Welcome to the matrix

Lol #K3C

#K3C

KBS Corporate Finance -87% year-on-year

This year: £0.8m
Last Year: £6.3m

You're thinking.. but the interims said a number of significant transactions would move to H2?

That's true - but they didn't specify H2 of which year.

"Corp. Finance continues to present an exciting opportunity to deliver significant transactions [and]revenue and profits, it is the Board's intention to transition towards a model where the happening of such fees represents upside opportunity rather than downside risk."

Lord.