HRouge Profile picture
Weighing machine
Dec 22, 2021 19 tweets 8 min read
$RADA makes small tactical military radars. The recent sell off hasn't made it cheap but it has begun to bring it closer to GARP territory

It's a rare pure-play on a theme that's perhaps not yet widely appreciated and is hard to access directly but you can see it in the numbers Here's where it trades on a forward sales multiple against some of the big diversified defence majors - has lost much of the premium and now sits a little off the top end. Brits bottom of the pile.
Nov 12, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read
Naive view but I think Hunting #HTG may be on its way back to Covid lows because it's orphaned on the wrong market and there's an information disconnect - if so, my guess is that it's pretty oversold here. Image The company isn't a pure play but it's good enough to say it's very shale exposed, towards the completion side vs the drilling side of things.

Three year chart to around May 2021: HTG in green vs several US oil services ETFs - as you can see, they trade in lockstep. Image
Nov 9, 2021 20 tweets 8 min read
IG Design #IGR was a ten bagger in the 5 years leading up to Covid. An update a fortnight ago dropped the shares by half and erased all the gains in the most recent five years. Knife catching and broken growth this soon is almost always a mistake but IG may be an exception here. ImageImageImage My basic premise with it is that the accounts are a complicated nightmare (CTRL+f for "adjust" is 232 hits in the last FY report) but most immediately, that this is right now a gross margin story - I think there are grounds to at least consider whether IG can be given a pass here
Oct 5, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read
Saw a one-line tweet the other day mentioning McColls #MCLS as one of 2 highest conviction names.

I think I see why: there's a metamorphosis happening underneath and reasonable path to PE and FCF multiples between 2-3 plus a growth narrative, all under that lovely grim exterior Story is that they're shrinking. 1500+ stores 2 years back, to 1050 by the end of FY21

Also changing: culling small newsagent shops to focus towards larger, more profitable grocery-heavy stores. So far, so worthy - but the real interest is the transformation into Morrisons Daily
Sep 23, 2021 12 tweets 4 min read
What does Sneller see to get such sudden FOMO for the old zombie that is Iofina #IOF? If you recall the name, it should produce revulsion but a few things have changed and there's a chance it may be about to make some money. ImageImage IOF produces Iodine in the US via O&G brine. Iodine is a beneficiary of industrial recovery generally and covid specifically - the largest use is used as x-ray contrast which may benefit demand from catch up on delayed hospital treatment.

And because it's 2021, inevitably: Image
Aug 20, 2021 15 tweets 6 min read
I think it's worth revisiting Aquis #AQX here in light of a couple of data points that have since come out.

There are three main parts to the co: a stock exchange (AQSE); a tech licencing biz and their multilateral trading facility (AQXE) - it's this last one I want to look at. First is the RNS from earlier this month announcing their MTF (…) had achieved 6.2% market share. Across the €53.6B traded on AQXE in July, this came out to €1.7B a day.

Those 6.2% and €1.7B are quite significant numbers and I'll come back to them later Image
Jun 10, 2021 12 tweets 5 min read
Someone else has also since mentioned $JAKK to me - it's a (shitco) toy maker, similar to Character Group #CCT in the UK. CC's tweet mentions the refi, he has a point - I think there may be something here to play for, perhaps towards a double or so before the end of the year. Company has cash of $80M + new debt of $99M (pink) repays difference on prior debt of $129M with cash on hand (green) so $50M cash + debt $99M

6,395 shares at $10.6, converts at $5.65 (purple) into $18.9M (blue) so + 3,345 shares = 9,740 / $103 cap & $20M prefs (grey) $172M EV
May 5, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
The effects of Covid at $IDN are becoming harder to ignore.

Q4/2019 - Q2/2020: figures to hand, exact responses Image Q3/2020: a bit of waffling but eventually a rough number Image
Mar 23, 2021 12 tweets 6 min read
More of an observation than anything but here's Accesso Technology #ACSO - a popped bubble and long before covid.

The idea was virtual queuing; you wander around consuming other things whilst waiting for your spot to come up for a ride or attraction somewhere. Image Revenues explain the chart well enough. Growth stalls, the starch comes out of the shares and then suddenly everyone notices a lack of profitability and cost capitalisation all along. Results released today, the last column, pretty much what you'd expect. Image
Mar 4, 2021 36 tweets 13 min read
Over the next decade or so, Transense #TRT will receive royalties on 6000+ of $GE's military helicopter engines and on many Bridgestone mining tires

Simple order of magnitude numbers suggest that the current cap of £12M may be undervaluing these cashflows quite substantially It's not a complicated co but there are four parts to this. To help keep track, I'll deal with them in the following order:

1. Bridgestone (discounted 0.5x-1.5x+ cap)
2. Helis (anywhere from undiscounted 1x-10x cap)
3. Free optionalities
4. Tire probes (modest percentage of cap)
Feb 22, 2021 18 tweets 7 min read
Unfortunately this involves banks, turnarounds and LendingClub $LC but I think something potentially quite interesting may be happening here, due to this acquisition: When I mentioned to Munger and Buffett the other day that I was reading up on LendingClub this was the reaction - and they're not too wrong: LC is crap
Feb 9, 2021 37 tweets 13 min read
Ammonium sulphate Image How quaint…
Jan 26, 2021 13 tweets 6 min read
For a long time I thought computational drug modelling really had only one listed company: $SLP

Turns out maybe not: Physiomics #PYC could be a decent candidate for a comp.

Growth is inflecting, it has optionalities and thanks to AIM obscurity it's on a fwd EV/Sales of 6.5x I first bought $SLP in April 2013. I mention this to make the point that was long before the current bubble in futuristic healthcare stocks, or before SaaS was a thing, this was already a punishingly expensive sector.

Here are the multiples you would've seen back then
Jan 15, 2021 8 tweets 3 min read
Some notes on TFF Pharmaceuticals $TFFP from the HC Wainwright call

20 mins long, link to call below… This previous thread about TFF was conjecture and I think the Wainwright call gave some grounds to think it may not totally off the mark.

Jan 13, 2021 20 tweets 8 min read
Summer 20: investment co with a one holding - a REIT - gets rid of its directors after the REIT collapsed into a zombie.

Sep 20: new management, new investment: a software company with 23% pre-tax margins

Nov 20: 60% growth, big client wins

Implied valuation today <5x sales Image There are no other numbers, this is everything there is.

The holdco is called Drumz #DRUM a £2.4M cap
The zombie is a listed REIT called KCR
The software company is called Acuity Risk Management

I have it at an implied trailing sales of ~4.9x ex £500K holdco cash and ex zombie Image
Jan 11, 2021 21 tweets 8 min read
TLDR: headlines like the below may be masking something interesting at ReNeuron - a medical platform business

As #MXCT and $CLPT show, these sell high

Direct NASDAQ comp valued 5x higher

#RENE platform has an imminent catalyst, which may be derisked.… Disclaimers as follows:

- I am far, far out of my lane looking at this
- The comp lives in a bubble market
- This is 100% based on crude pattern recognition
- Market appears to value #RENE for other aspects, so
- This may not work even if the idea proves correct
Jan 7, 2021 26 tweets 10 min read
Tiny, UK AIM co in specialty chemicals: specifically "sustainable polymers"

At best this usually means 1 client and a test batch; at worst, magic beans

But Itaconix #ITX is neither and it's rather mispriced: it sells at margins that rival the best in the world - and in size It may actually be very mispriced; estimates are clearly too low. All in part because it's off the radar.

It's another find by @dopamine_uptake who pointed it out to me after reading on IP Group - some holdings of theirs caught his eye and of them, this one really caught mine.
Jan 5, 2021 25 tweets 8 min read
Now a £35M cap, a fortnight on

It's one of those small UK if-it-were-listed-in-the-US companies. Bidstack #BIDS and it puts advertising into major online games

It's rocketing - and there are some grounds to think that in quite short order it may be about to turn into a firework "May" and also:

- history of over promising and disappointing
- very much a AIM small cap
- burns cash
- will place and dilute
- has share price on homepage
- Glassdoor is not great
- emoji issues when discussed
Jan 2, 2021 5 tweets 2 min read
Iceberg might have a point here

$WW is Weight Watchers Don't worry, not going on a bender with filings

T9M figures last 4 years. Yes it's a bit stagnant in the numbers and costs up / profit down a little etc but the COGs numbers are roughly consistent. You could imagine a jump in revenues flowing through quite well.

2018 was Oprah
Jan 1, 2021 17 tweets 5 min read
Resolution: no drink and no showing how I read accounts, so grab a bottle of absinthe and let's look at $TRIT

A mysterious stranger appears from a foreign land.

"Play me the music of your people", you ask

It's like nothing you've ever heard but it's everything you've ever felt You fix the stranger in your gaze

"Where did the cash go?"
Dec 30, 2020 17 tweets 6 min read
Very hairy: this company was going down the toilet even before covid; it's now a wreck - and even better, it's enormously exposed to Chinese solar. BK isn't off the cards and the upside may not even be that great. Chart is back to Jan 2017. Singulus from Germany #SNG.DE Image It's a German maker of high end capital goods for solar, semi and life sciences: glass and wafer deposition / polishing, that kind of area.

How it started:

Revenues & Ebit
2017: €91m & -€1.2m
2018: €127m & +€6.8M
2019: €79M & -€8.0M