Thread by @ShachiKurl

Good Day! By now you may have seen our latest data from @angusreidorg about the party standings. But the massive sample size offers the opportunity to dive deeper. Follow along with me. #cdnpoli

So among decided and leaning voters, here's where we stand today:

...and a really important component of how we got here is vote retention. That is, how the LPC and CPC are (or aren't) holding onto their 2015 vote bases:

Look at how much softer that Liberal vote is relative to the CPC. Where are 2015 those Trudeau Liberals going? Take a look:

The CPC's vote retention by contrast is rock solid. BUT, the Conservatives have been nicked just a bit by the PPC:

Another important factor: voter certainty.

As you can see, current CPC voters are much more certain that they won't change their minds before the fall election. Left of centre voters, not so much:

But if the CPC is going to break through (it's largely been standing still while the Liberals sink), the party must do better with women. (And Trudeau must do better with men). Just look at the gender divide:

Age demographics are also a significant factor - stay with me here. On one hand, if there's any place the Trudeau Liberals are competitive, it's with young voters:

...that sounds encouraging right? Big problem tho, because young voters don't vote nearly as much as older ones. These data from Stats Can show the 2015 turnout among young voters for Trudeau was more on a one-off:

OK, moving on. Canada isn't a giant blob. So the regional story is key. Especially in vote-rich urban centres. Here, the Liberals are competitive:

And you can see that trends again looking at how the Liberals do in Montreal relative to the rest of Quebec:

So, six months out, trailing the CPC badly, it's important to point out where the Liberals are/can build themselves back up. They have a big problem though. And his name is Trudeau....

The leader who once had stratospheric approval levels? Umm, yeah, those days are gone. Look at the massive # of ppl who say they strongly disapprove relative to those who strongly approve:

And you'll recall me saying earlier, #PMJT's always done better with the young'uns, but even their ardour is cooling. Check out this trendline of approval by age of respondent over time:

And where do the rest of the leaders stand? Have a look:

Here's another way to look at it... none of the three main party leaders are particularly favoured by voters today. It's more that they're really steamed at the PM:

So what conclusions should we draw?

-The Liberals might seriously consider de-emphasizing Trudeau's brand primacy, make it about the mission, not the man

-The Conservatives and Andrew Scheer are going to have to grow their base and appeal big time

Thx for following along!