David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
UK Director @ecipe Brexit global trade political economy, Perspectives column @BorderlexEditor, Expert adviser @UKTradeBusiness. Music maniac, some sport. DMs.

May 22, 2019, 6 tweets

Tomorrow (or rather Sunday when the votes are counted) will mostly demonstrate once again that the country is completely split on Brexit, but the vote on one side will be concentrated, on the other split several ways. Not only that...

These are the Conservative MPs who can't even think of any kind of compromise Brexit, and this can obviously be supplemented by others in Government, though not necessarily the tory leadership candidates who may say one thing and mean another... buzzfeed.com/alexwickham/to…

Then there are the Labour, Lib Dem, Change UK, Green, SNP MPs who are realistically not going to vote for any Brexit unless there's a referendum. Not a majority on their own, but put them together with the no-compromise folk...?

There's realistically only two directions of travel available to the next PM. Either a no-deal v remain referendum (justified on account of no-deal not being the official position of leave at the last one), or a soft Brexit Norway or Turkey style.

A new PM could try an election to win a Parliamentary majority for a no-deal Brexit, but there's little suggestion from polls that they could succeed. And frankly we're just delaying the pain further that way.

No Brexit unicorns are coming to rescue us. This PM eventually vaguely met reality, but in such a way as to mean she couldn't get a majority. Key question is how soon the next PM meets reality, and how they build support for their choice once they do / end

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