David Henig 🇺🇦 Profile picture
UK Director @ecipe Brexit & global trade, Co-founder @uktradeforum Perspectives column @BorderlexEditor, @CavendishAdv @UKTradeBusiness. Music, sport, etc. DMs
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Sep 30 • 8 tweets • 3 min read
Welcome to another day of bizarreness from the UK government staying true to their hotch-potch ideology while also seeking simple ways to undo the mess they've made of their and the UK's credibility, and finding none exist (cut benefits to pay bankers?). ft.com/content/d5f1d5… Image I think this government's economic ideology can best be described as nationalist free-market capitalism, to make the point that supporters have been attacking international institutions like the IMF and EU, while also thinking tax cuts will attract international high-rollers.
Sep 29 • 9 tweets • 3 min read
Government hasn't done any radical reform yet. And judging by the RSPB campaign against the prospect of it radicalism is not going to survive. But this is more about direction, a government for the rich, and handling, abysmal leading to expectations of much higher interest rates. The government's growth plan is dead, from their own inept handling of the first stirrings. It wasn't, to be fair, much of a plan anyway. And remember we haven't even had the higher mortgage rates for most people yet.
Sep 29 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Remember some of the other crises the UK government needs to solve. NHS... ft.com/content/dfd199… The railways are also in a state of turmoil. theguardian.com/business/2022/…
Sep 29 • 21 tweets • 5 min read
I see we have reached the "we need to smash the world economic system" stage of the Brexit / Conservative revolution (is conservative revolution not an oxymoron? that's one of the points. anyway...)

Argentina tips its hat to us. It should not need saying that even if you have issues with the world economic system, as we all do, it is more likely to smash a single country that isn't the US, than vice versa. Not least if your government represents a distinct minority even in your own country.
Sep 28 • 11 tweets • 4 min read
Quite sure this is the plan. Truss and Kwarteng think they are doing the right thing, and that there really is a lefty establishment plot against them. So this crisis could go on for some time, and have significantly greater cost yet. As predicted. No need to get into conspiracies, just the supreme confidence of an Old Etonian surrounded only by those telling him what he wants to hear, and a PM who has convinced herself she is the second coming of Thatcher. Crisis will continue.
Sep 28 • 36 tweets • 12 min read
Higher interest rates are associated with lower house prices, but I do wonder whether the fall will be as much as some expect, given that housing is now the only asset of so many, together with the global demand for relatively safe assets such as housing. We have to overlay the global market on top of the UK one in considering the implications of the current financial crisis, I think the overall implication is a loss for UK business and consumers compared to other countries, but I'm less sure how individual indicators will shift.
Sep 28 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
All is fine in the Conservative Party. Move on, nothing to see here. All a little fuss over nothing...
Sep 27 • 6 tweets • 3 min read
This is costing the country billions, but one has the distinct sense of a government still not taking markets seriously, egged on by the usual suspects, because this is their moment to push the ideology as far as possible and they must believe. Unprecedented in modern UK history. And what happens when government proceeds at speed without thinking through the consequences? It finds itself out of good options in a matter of days, as those with concerns become implacable opponents.
Sep 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
There were a lot of big promises in the Starmer speech - on energy, housing, public services. As you'd hope from an opposition wanting to be in government. Putting them into practice though will be quite the challenge - but a sane implementation conversation would be a relief. There was a part of the speech on why the UK couldn't be a global leader on electric vehicles and other elements of the net-zero transformation, and sure, but we better define what that would be, in manufacture, deployment, regulation?
Sep 27 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Starmer's speech is pretty decent from what I'm hearing, but also shows just what an open goal he was given by the government removing the top rate of tax. Meanwhile the new Prime Minister seems to be finding the crisis set off by her government all a bit much to handle. news.sky.com/story/liz-trus…
Sep 27 • 6 tweets • 2 min read
All fine in principle to seek broad benefits from trade deals, though I have doubts the next government will negotiate many.

Most welcome is the suggestion of a plan to maximise the impact of new trade deals. I'd go further - this should be done retrospectively for all FTAs. Free Trade Agreements are pretty dated instruments largely focusing on tariff reduction, but they do provide the basis for a stronger trade relationship with third countries, and part of any government's trade strategy should be to publish a plan for maximising each of these.
Sep 27 • 12 tweets • 3 min read
The consequences of the last week is that this UK government's prospects for serious policy-making, whether you'd have liked it or not, have diminished to virtually zero. In every direction there are obstacles which are just getting higher. Start with the known obstacles, better trade ties with neighbours are not possible due to internal party opposition, similarly resolution of issues of Northern Ireland and Brexit are stuck between same party opposition and EU / US reactions of trade war / diplomatic pressure.
Sep 27 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Inevitable really that the doomsday cult would add the city to their naughty list of the rejoiner remainer blob threatening the purity of their vision. Alternatively, of course, perhaps the doomsday cult is the one heading in ever diminishing circles towards implosion. At least there is always room for humour in the UK, even amidst the despair at the incompetent ideologues...
Sep 26 • 5 tweets • 2 min read
Unashamed pursuit of growth latest... Unashamed pursuit of growth meet UK love of wildlife, no contest as to the winner, just how long it takes to be determined.
Sep 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Three reasons this is wrong.

Markets have been sending warnings they didn't trust Truss fiscal plans for weeks, they were ignored.
UK government fiscal plans are for increased deficit without credible growth plans.
Signals of intent from government to go further. There's a big UK political problem right now of government ignoring the bleeding obvious when inconvenient. They were told a hard Brexit would have an economic cost, it did. They were told unfunded tax cuts would cause market response, it did. If you only listen to supporters...
Sep 26 • 13 tweets • 4 min read
Bank of England won the staring contest with the government, latter had to issue the statement. Expectations that the 'growth measures' will deliver growth are of course very low, most likely they will set off a whole series of concerns / battles. "ensuring that debt falls as a share of GDP in the medium-term" = the next government's problem, as is well known.

But this government now has an uphill battle for any of its plans to be taken seriously.
Sep 26 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
The real unashamed UK growth policy would be:

- Investment in public services and regional infrastructure
- Regulatory stability based on best global practice
- Stronger trade ties
- Pay rises for key workers
- Tax wealth as well as earnings

Bonus growth just for sanity. Part 2 of the growth policy, learn about the 2020s global economy and the UK's strengths, which means far greater emphasis on services through e.g. spending on universities, media, culture, greater incentives to invest here in new productive capacity.
Sep 26 • 33 tweets • 9 min read
In almost every regard, an international low for the UK in modern times. A government warned of the risk of run on the pound if they pursued reckless policies ignored the warnings, just as for years it has ignored any inconvenient expert voice, and we see the outcome. This is not a government with an unashamed pursuit of growth but an unashamed pursuit of a half-baked ideology centred on a magic money tree, a rejection of international norms of regulation and trade, and fights then climbdowns with all manner of groups.
Sep 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
As with energy price intervention, obvious the government will have to backtrack on environmental protections (as they also will on the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill). What happens when ideologues meet reality. theguardian.com/politics/2022/… This is the needless destabilising of the UK. Government announces all inherited EU law will be scrapped. It won't be. But in the mean time you just created at least 18 months of total uncertainty in the business environment. That's not an unashamed focus on growth.
Sep 25 • 5 tweets • 1 min read
Modern economies are complex, most policy challenges likewise, yet certainly but not only in the UK we see a startling lack of intellectual curiosity about this. Is it all just too difficult / much easier to go with some glib slogan, even though it will make no difference? Example - common law is sometimes held up as a reason why the UK struggled with EU regulations, but few of those that did so appear to have a very good understanding of common law, or how it might affect for example proposed UK deregulation. Worth investigating surely?
Sep 25 • 4 tweets • 1 min read
Rules of origin hit the Labour Party conference, quite rightly, because there aren't really magic beans you can buy for growth, you have to deal with actual economic realities like this. So important to emphasise that one of the main reasons the Kwarteng fiscal event won't suddenly restore growth is that there's no stability, what was announced yesterday could easily change next year, and that's no basis for serious investment. Glib politics not economics.