Judea Pearl Profile picture
Student of causal inference, human reasoning, and history of ideas, all viewed through the sharp lens of artificial intelligence.

Aug 5, 2019, 5 tweets

I have just posted my 3rd comment on Lord Paradox errorstatistics.com/2019/08/02/s-s…. Here, I returned to my original goal of empowering readers with an understanding of the origin of the paradox and what we can learn from it. Red herrings have been taking too much of our time. #Bookofwhy

It is important to add that the huge literature on Simpson's and Lord's paradoxes attests to a century of scientific frustration with a simple causal problem, deeply entrenched in out intuition, yet helplessly begging for a formal language to get resolved. I can count dozens of

red herrings thrown at this stubborn problem, to deflect attention from its obvious resolution. Why? Because the latter requires the acceptance of a new language - the hardest transition for adults. I am grateful for the opportunity to talk to thousands of young followers here

on Twitter and convey to them my honest conviction: Chapter 6 of #Bookofwhy (paradoxes galore) is a condense summary of a century of confusion, and a powerful recipe for deliverance from that confusion. Additional references are: ucla.in/2JeJs1Q (Lord's paradox),

ucla.in/2Jfl2VS (Simpson's paradox) ucla.in/2NTbnrS (Sure-thing Principle)
And Chapter 6 of Causality ucla.in/2BDDTLK , where I document dozens of red-herrings 1900-2000.
Their numbers is still rising, I hope one of you continues --an amazing phenomenon.

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