ONS: 0.2% fall in GDP in Q2 - first fall for 7 years - worse than expected
... on that number technical recession possible though not most likely. Probably now in the middle of weakest 2 quarters for growth since the financial crisis, weakest Q1-Q3 since financial crisis...
If consensus expectations correct, it will be weakest showing in G7.
Falls in manufacturing biggest in a decade, driven by No Deal car plant shutdowns, falls in production overall biggest since 2012. Service sector growth slowest in three years.
Consumer held up though.
But this is basically broad based, some of it down to one-offs, but not all
Much of the driver for this is further downward revisions to the impact of No Deal planning/ shutdowns in manufacturing in April... households and Government spending supporting the economy
GDP by quarter since crisis - first fall since eurozone crisis 6.5 yrs ago - but also those figures were then distorted by Olympics - so while it opens risk of a technical recession - clearly nowhere near eg financial crisis... not just about April No Deal shutdowns, June also 0
NEW: sterling dips below €1.0792 - this is a decade low against the single currency - the lowest since the immediate aftermath of the financial crisis, in aftermath of weaker than expected GDP....
Euro is the biggest weight in trade weighted sterling, obviously. Worth watching whether the official number for the strength of sterling against a basket of currencies is at a record low. Certainly going to be near enough.
The last time there was a weaker close than where sterling just dipped vs euro was January 2nd 2009
Sterling really tanking now - vs euro as low as €1.0736 vs euro $1.2024.
Haven’t got the data terminal with me but barring a big rally that is heading for a decade low close vs euro
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