Faisal Islam Profile picture
Economics Editor, BBC. Fin crisis book @theDefaultLine .. Newsnight. Host award-winning 2016 EUref TV interviews & 2017 live GE debate. United ST.
LittleGravitas 🇺🇦 🌻 🇪🇺 💙 #FBPE Profile picture AlanLB 🦋 ⚖ 🦋 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 🇬🇧 Profile picture Dame Chris🌟🇺🇦😷 #RejoinEU #FBPE #GTTO🔶️ Profile picture Jay Jernigan Profile picture sl-xf Profile picture 113 added to My Authors
May 18 4 tweets 2 min read
NEW Chancellor speaks to biz leaders @CBItweets
“the economic situation is extremely serious. A perfect storm of global supply shocks is rolling through our economy simultaneous global demand shifting last year from services to goods and exacerbating supply chain bottlenecks” NEW: Chancellor @CBItweets: “those inflationary pressures are starting to weigh on growth… The next few months will be tough…. And so as the situation evolves, our response will evolve. We stand ready to do more .” Image
May 18 12 tweets 4 min read
NEW UK Inflation hits 40 year high on the CPI measure of 9% Retail Prices Index - the older target measure - has now hit double digits - 11%. Highest since Feb 1982
May 16 10 tweets 2 min read
BLOG: Ahead of the Bank of England Governor’s appearance in front of MPs - the predictable cost of living blame game, and questions about its 25 year independence record as inflation heads to a 40 year high… bbc.co.uk/news/business-… Double digit inflation not good, its bad, says Governor Bailey to MPs, says at peak, “80% of this is down to energy and tradable goods” and the BoE cant predict wars, and the issue is a series of shocks one after the other without gaps….
May 13 10 tweets 5 min read
This is the EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill Impact Assessment, dated 21 October 2019:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…

It contains the Government’s own expectations at time the Brexit deal was done of the border/ checks required within UK, in the Irish Sea as a result of the PM’s deal: 4.5.1: Customs: “Any processes normally required on goods entering EU will be implemented at NI-RoW border or on trade moving East-West between GB & NI”

4.5.4.2.1 “Agrifood goods enter NI from GB via Border Inspection Post as required under EU law”
May 12 10 tweets 3 min read
UK GDP up 0.8% in Q1 of this year, making economy 0.7% bigger than pre pandemic…

All that growth occurred in January, with flat economy in Feb, and small contraction in March in first few days of Russia-Ukraine invasion Vs rest of G7, UK had second fastest growth in Q1 behind Canada, (awaiting Japan) some of that is still rebound from bigger falls before. Comparing with growth from the end of 2019, before pandemic UK 4th out of G7
May 9 6 tweets 2 min read
Important story from @BBCSimonJack - despite fall in UK wholesale gas prices to a third of invasion peak… energy companies telling Ofgem that the energy cap will still have to be hiked significantly, to account for the fact they’ve already bought the gas bbc.co.uk/news/business-… This is rather up for debate and sets up quite the three way challenge between Government, Ofgem and the energy companies…

For what it’s worth day ahead gas prices have just reached 56 pence per therm versus £5 at invasion peak. Obviously futures prices are more like £2 tho
May 7 4 tweets 2 min read
Quick thread, after Newsnight elec special

And might there be a prevalence “Maginot Line” thinking - overly focusing/ fighting the political frontlines of the previous election battle instead of current ones?

Defra min Prentis said Gov not ‘in denial’ about losing 500 seats /1 The minister went on to argue that the PM had to stay in office to tackle the cost of living crisis…
May 6 4 tweets 2 min read
In hot seat for big #Newsnight tonight reporting from across the UK on the full slate of results…

interested in this chart, with Lab set to top equivalent vote share…

As EdMil had, which didn’t help in 2015.

But then Con had Ukip vote to squeeze hard. Now it’s LD/ Green… Image NEW

BBC Projected National Share for GB, from Sir John:

Lab - 35%
Con - 30%
LD - 19%
Oth - 16%

As I said, matches Miliband, who didn’t go on to win GE2015, but then UKIP support significant, this time LD & Greens… Image
May 5 5 tweets 2 min read
Coming up on @BBCNewsnight tonight my interview with the amazing @arcadefire Win and Regine about being taken down the lockdown rabbit hole in their new album We, the tyranny of the streaming algorithms, family, fame, Haiti, strawberries and crabs… Image Not sure anyones managed to have an interview with a Bank of England Governor and Grammy-winning indie-rock stars broadcast on the same day before…. Image
May 5 4 tweets 1 min read
NEW: 🚨

UK economy to shrink next year as cost of living hit worsens, forecasts Bank of England, as it raises rates by 0.25%. Unanimous decision to raise rates by 0.25%… 3 MPC members voted for 0.5… even as forecasting economy in recessionary territory {predicting two quarters of contraction, but not consecutive, and fall in econ over 2023]
Apr 28 11 tweets 2 min read
Delay announced to post Brexit import controls, again, announces Brexit opps minister Rees Mogg, saving British businesses “up to £1bn a year”.. “would be wrong to impose new admin burdens at this point” he says…

questions-statements.parliament.uk/written-statem… “No further import controls on EU goods introduced this year. Businesses can stop their preparations for July now. “…says JRM.

So no safety & security checks
No further health cert/ SPS checks
No move of SPS checks to Border Control Post
No prohibition on EU chilled meat import
Apr 21 5 tweets 1 min read
NEW
IMFC committee not been able to agree a communique amid disagreements over wording of support for Ukraine… its been blocked, which I think has no precedent. G20 communique also blocked

Understand Russian delegation just been speaking here in DC, to protest from many others Yellen - we are tightening the vice on Russia by targeting networks used too evade sanctions…
Apr 21 5 tweets 1 min read
NEW
Just done interview with Chancellor Rishi Sunak at IMF meeting in DC…

* on FPN: “I'm extremely and sincerely sorry for the hurt and the anger that this has caused so many people”.
* “always acted, I believe in good faith with regard to what I've said in Parliament” On having Green card while Cx: “I had a green card as a legacy of my time living & working in America & nothing more than that.”
On whether family benefited from nondom: [my wife] has decided to pay both UK & foreign taxes on her foreign investments & I fully support her decision
Apr 20 6 tweets 2 min read
NEW

In exclusive interview with BBC, German finance minister Christian Lindner tells me

* tho Russian energy will be embargoed “as fast as possible”
* immediate embargo physically impossible and
* would “probably” see shutdowns of manufacturers and carmakers…

#BBCNewsSix …German finance minister @c_lindner tells me

“Russia is responsible for all the geopolitical and economic risks” arising from the war - “inflation, food crisis and possible risk of a serious debt crisis in developing countries”

#BBCNewsSix
Apr 19 8 tweets 2 min read
NEW:

IMF latest world econ outlook downgrades global growth forecasts after Russia-Ukraine invasion calling it “severe setback” to post pandemic lockdown recovery with almost all countries cut…global econ will grow by 3.6% this year and next, inflation staying higher for longer NEW:

UK economy forecast to be slowest growing in the G7 next year (2023) at 1.2%, by the IMF, and no longer top performer this year, after significant downgrades to growth, though was last year in initial post pandemic bounceback.

Inflation forecast to be highest in G7.
Apr 9 5 tweets 2 min read
Extraordinary images of Zelenskyy and the PM walking around Kyiv… This bit - PM having walked through Maidan explains to Zelenskyy something was a “good idea for the UK in 1973 - the right thing at the right time” … which logically suggests he no longer thinks it is, which rather points towards EU membership, which Ukraine actively seeks…
Apr 4 7 tweets 3 min read
This could be interesting…

worth remembering that a decade ago the then German government allowed Gazprom to swap deep lying gas reserves in Siberia for actual gas storage capacity in Germany - the same gas storage that would be required in any energy standoff with Russia I wrote about it my book @thedefaultline after visiting Gazprom’s Siberian gas fields… swapping deep lying Achimov gas fields for the largest gas storage facility in Western Europe.

Actually deal collapsed after I wrote it.

And was revived and completed in 2015. After Crimea.
Apr 4 11 tweets 3 min read
PM was big on cheaper Tim Tams as a totemic benefit of free trade deal… The elimination of 8% tariff under the UK-Aus FTA …will still leave the Australian version of the penguin priced rather steeply… well over £4 currently vs £2 in Oz. Basically sold here as a luxury biscuit near doubling in price would obviously include shipping from other side of world. Without tariffs, bigger incentive to ship more and perhaps cut prices more. But if it was really commercially viable, presumably they would just start producing them here, but no tariff benefit then
Mar 28 7 tweets 2 min read
Totemic 200 gram bars of Dairy Milk chocolate shrinkflates to 180g…

“in this difficult environment, we’ve had to make the decision to slightly reduce the weight of our medium Cadbury Dairy Milk bars for the first time since 2012” says maker Mondolez bbc.co.uk/news/business-… NB in the Roman army original sense of the word, the Dairy Milk 200g bar has been decimated….
Mar 28 9 tweets 2 min read
Chancellor up at Treasury Sel Committee, following Spring Statement, asked by some MPs why not more done to mitigate cost of living pressures:

“Borrowing a lot more is not responsible or sensible, it risks stoking inflation…so that provides for me a constraint,” says Chancellor “very difficult today to speculate on energy prices in the autumn…let’s wait until we get there”: Sunak

As I wrote last week, Treasury going to wait until closer to summer to see if Autumn price cap will be up few hundred pounds or over a thousand pounds a year, before deciding
Mar 25 5 tweets 2 min read
#Newsnight tonight…

At the mo we lead on Russia’s military publicly announcing what appears a major strategic shift, concentrating on Donbass in east & suggesting didn’t plan to enter major Ukrainian cities…

Regrouping or retreat? - with Mark, voices from Moscow, Kyiv, & here … in itself interesting that this change in strategy is publicly announced by Russian generals in briefing with maps, at precisely the moment US President is near Ukraine’s border, after NATO/US/EU show of unity… #Newsnight