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Might remember I cornered Rwandan President Paul Kagame in January and asked if UK would get money back if no migrants were transferred to Rwanda… answer revealed today: Govt paid £715m so far until June of this year

“not recoverable under the terms of the Treaty”

terms of Rwanda deal are quite something…

In addition to £715m already paid, Treaty another £100m is due (will it be paid?)

also envisaged £120m bonus after 300 refugees “transferred”. And £20k per person payment.

And then further £150k per migrant payment over 5 years

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Treasury effectively confirms debt rule loosening, by announcing its new “guardrails” to channel capital spending goes to a 10 year pipeline of major projects that generate economic returns that will help “depoliticise infrastructure”

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… Their view is independent accountable bodies, either new or given new powers will set & implement a 10 year infrastructure strategy integrated with 2 year spending reviews, and audit this, and assess value for money ensuring capital investment generates clear long term returns…

“One monopolist serves as a gatekeeper for the delivery of nearly all live music in America today”

- US Govt’s attempt to break up Live Nation-Ticketmaster announced in May in a court filing is quite a document… “platinum” pricing is mentioned 5 times … #Ticketonomics Live Nation itself said this year that platinum pricing was in its 5th innings in the US but “in its first” in Europe and their intention to apply it “all along the way” until the concert “gates open up” is a “multi year opportunity to grow our top line/ bottom line”…

NAO confirms that HS2 without phase 2 will result in trains with less space between Manchester and Birmingham than current west Coast services, and might require demand management to dissuade passengers… bbc.co.uk/news/articles/… Non-consensus view, but having sunk the costs of phase 1, and then committed to the hybrid bill for HS2 north… the cost benefit ratio of completing the bit between Manchester airport and Birmingham will be very high… would require political consensus to be re-established though

Shadow Chancellor Jeremy Hunt acknowledges to @bbclaurak when asked if Conservatives had won whether there would have been tax cuts in Autumn that “we wouldn’t have been able to do it immediately, no” …
most notable thing re: Chancellor interview with Laura is this unusual Treasury analysis due in next fortnight which will “look at the state of the public services, the state of the public finances…public spending pressures we are under”

Q: why isnt the OBR doing this?

Reassuringly, @demishassabis tells Blair at the @InstituteGC conference that Artificial Intelligence is only at the IQ level of a cat right now.. [although that is changing rapidly - surely will exceed humans in many tasks in this Parliament] 🐈‍⬛ Interesting to think Blair as PM famously never used his computer, or rarely did so…

Also has the scars, as it were, from that failed NHS IT contract… if only that had succeeded…

Interesting to know if this Govt is conscious of the ghosts of that and of botched PFI deals.

Coutinho co-opting the Treasury Permanent Secretary into backing idea that Labour will raise taxes by thousands…

All this arises because the OBR (unlike its equivalent in Ireland, Australia the US, the CBO) is prevented from doing comparable truly independent costings… This whole “debate” is, for now, rather absurd, as next week we will get the actual policies in manifestos, the parties’ own assumptions and separate truly independent numbers on the implications for tax, spend & borrowing from the likes of the IFS & Niesr.

Looks like a major “announcement” on energy bills is imminent … another @politicalpics long lens scoop… Big Six have been briefed … something to do with the energy price cap adjustment (cut) from July (coming by Friday), further policy on smart meters (rollout has stalled)

https://twitter.com/politicalpics/status/1792603742732165449

”Note we do not necessarily want their advocacy as consumer trust is so low in suppliers that if a package of this kind is backed by them then consumers will instinctively regard it as not in their best interests” the memo says of the Big Six energy providers

1 in 4 Scottish adults on anti-depressants doctor just told Amol on @BBCr4today re inactivity…

Can’t find directly comparable England stat … but NHS England business data says there were 8.6m patients prescribed antidepressants in 22/23 (up from 6.8m in 2015)… 19% of adults Thanks followers - the doc did say 1 in 5, and the fact is here from NHS business data … 8.6m antidepressant prescriptions out of an adult population of 45 million… 5.6m women, 2.9m men. Up from 2015 6.8m prescriptions/ 43m population… (1 in 6)

these numbers seem astonishing.

Epic Davos buzz thread -

1. Leading African figures told me privately that Kagame’s clear frustration with the UK-Rwanda deal, communicated to me “it’s UK’s problem” & “have money back” also reflect eyebrows being raised in other African nations about general look for a man who likes to be seen as the modern leader of a confident Africa, and who may have clocked that it may be reversing his considerable investments in nation-branding (sponsoring PL footy teams) etc. Watch this space. Here’s my iPhone video… 2. Remember, there are two sides to this deal:

I got a note from a very connected commentator after my doorstep: “It's a really bad look for him. He knows that the whole point of this policy is to make the UK govt look tough on migrants, on the grounds that Rwanda is presumptively a terrible place to be sent to. It puts the Rwanda country brand back like 20 years. … the only thing people associate with the country is "the worst place the Brits can think to send people"….
Context here - some real buzz about Africa jumping value chains, not just producing minerals but the finished products the world needs and doing so within a massive new free trade area…

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Governor Bailey says the risk on inflation “remains on the upside” when talking to MPs… backdrop to the Autumn Statement push to declare a turning point - MPC member Catherine Mann also suggests rates should be higher, because of continuing price and wage pressures … Mann: inflation forecast points to not hitting 2% inflation target until mid 2026

extraordinary testimony from Dep Cabinet Sec Mcnamara, about “jovial tone” and “breezy confidence” of PM Johnson in face of Italian “overreacting” re first European Covid wave even there was “laughing at the Italians”…

at time Italian docs implored Brits to learn its lessons There was definitely some lobby briefing at the time with some sneering at the Italians - which I recall being really rather revealing, because my medical family were recirculating accounts from Italian doctor friends repeatedly warning UK to take advantage of headstart eg below

https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/1237019331302752259

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German finance minister Lindner tells me:
“this a standing invitation for the UK if you want to intensify your trade relationship with EU - Call Us!”

Saying post Brexit trade barriers “new obstacles in daily business life” are not benefitting German business or the UK Lindner: “in daily life of German corporates, there are new obstacles since Brexit, I don't think UK is benefiting from Brexit. And so I, I believe i’m convinced we need new steps to reduce the obstacles in the daily business life for people and corporates to have trade”

Japan building revolutionary 177 mile maglev from Tokyo to Nagoya for £45bn, 90% in tunnels under mountains as part of integrated Shinkansen system…

equivalent of London to Manchester (in straight line) in 40 minutes… at 310mph…

jrailpass.com/blog/maglev-bu… Think that budget will probably go up… but gives a sense of perspective on the costs of HS2 phase 1… and it’ll probably open before hs2 even though 2027 probs won’t be met.

But also how was it funded?

30 year “FILP” state loans with 0.5%- 1% interest rates taken out in 2017

…

Government is arguing that with the rise in costs, the cost benefit ratio for HS2 may have fallen below 1… some bus projects have a ratio above 4 (ie £4 for every £1 invested)…

But this would be for the whole project… now half built. So

1. Who will take responsibility for the spiralling cost of HS2 phase
1… did it ever make sense to build a tunnel from London to Birmingham… did they spend the cash that should have extended it to the north, the whole point, on tunnels to hide it?

On Net Zero row back…

Will hear from more big investors & companies who have invested many billions on cast iron commitments to transition timetable

Eg elec cars - significant concern having invested on assumption of transition, now undermined, at time of qs re consumer demand As I reported last week re Chinese imports, many carmakers were concerned about detail of Zero Electric Vehicle mandate which is due to come in, in January, but they weren’t calling for a delay, more flexibility to effectively prevent them from having to subsidise Chinese imports

Should be interesting….

#minibudget Here we go….

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Chancellor @Jeremy_Hunt tells #bbclaurak that the school shutdowns due to crumbly concrete “won’t” be like lockdown, and he’ll “spend what it takes” to “make sure kids are safe”… Chancellor points out one of his first decisions was to protect in cash terms overall capital budgets… “in cash terms” is a pretty important caveat here at a time of generationally high inflation - it was not protected in real terms - as a %n of GDP heading to 2.1% from 2.9% now

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Government acknowledges for first time that the imposition of now further delayed post Brexit checks on EU food and agriculture imports will increase inflation … though says it is “expected to be minor” at less than 0.2% across three years In the new Border Operating model, Government says it has reduced burdens on importers by £500m a year (vs previous model, not status quo), but cost will be £330m pa… re 0.2% inflation “consequences of a major outbreak of plant/animal disease on economy could be far more severe”

Rather massive elephant in room on politics of the car… is how coming Parliament will legislate to replace £28bn a year in fuel duty (given electric cars don’t use petrol/diesel, and new ones banned from 2030) with some other tax on motoring…

Much bigger than LTNs and Ulez… Government’s official position articulated by Chancellor/ Treasury is this:

“Government does not currently have plans to consider road pricing...
More broadly…revenue from motoring taxes will need to keep pace with change [to EVs], while remaining affordable for consumers”

Join me on ⁦@BBCNewsnight⁩ at 2230 re why clean energy investment in UK declined, despite surging gas prices, are we becoming more dependent on imported gas, & what USA up to with Inflation Reduction Act/excl interviews with Biden Cabinet members/ Shapps/ industrialists Exclusive interview with @State_E “this is the largest investment ever made by one country in our clean energy future” State Departments Jose Fernandez #Newsnight