Thread by @ambassadorbrief

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

Three stories:

Surveillance state: the HK protests have shone a spotlight on Chinese extraterritorial monitoring & coercion. In one case, Chinese authorities intimidated a protestor at an Australian university by visiting his parents at home in China.

In another, the Chinese Aviation authority demanded that (HK based) Cathay Pacific suspend all staff who have engaged in the protests from flights into Chinese airspace. Many protestors – in HK & abroad – are now hiding their faces, for fear of Chinese facial recognition tech.

.@elyratner argued “this is why you don’t want the Chinese government controlling your data and telecom networks”: the CCP is likely to extend this kind of monitoring and punishment as it becomes more able.

20 years of Putin: the anniversary saw 50,000 Russians in the streets, protesting a lack of fairness in local elections. @Kasparov63 argued that the protests are a “reminder that Putin, like every dictator, has no idea when or how his rule will end. Only that it will be sudden”.

.@AngelaStent argued that Putin has reasserted Russia on the world stage both because he had a plan and because he is a skilful tactician. His judo skills and KGB experience have enabled him to sense his antagonists’ weaknesses, and play a weak hand well.

But @anders_aslund has noted that Russia’s adventures abroad have been designed to serve as a distraction from its economic stagnation at home – where Putin has structured Russia’s economy to facilitate massive scale asset stripping & enrichment of loyal plutocrats.

Trade war: China let its currency fall to 7 to the US dollar to retaliate for – and partially offset the effect of – Trump’s latest tariffs. This led the US Treasury Dept to designate it a “currency manipulator”. But, per @prchovanec, this term “doesn’t have any specific meaning”

He continued, “there is no hard requirement [for the US] to take any specific action” after the designation. So it’s “unclear exactly” what the implications are – except to “raise the temperature of the rhetoric between the US and China further”.

The irony is that the “currency manipulator” label for China has been outdated since mid-2014. Around then, more dollars started flowing out of China than in, creating downward pressure on the yuan – and “China, if anything [has been] intervening to support the yuan”.

Three thought-provoking articles:

.@gideonrachman argued that the Asian strategic order is dying. “There has been a rash of diplomatic and security incidents across east Asia in the past month, which are symptoms of a wider sickness…Collectively, they point to a regional security order that is coming apart”.

He continued: “America's military pre-eminence & diplomatic predictability can no longer be taken for granted. And China is no longer willing to accept a secondary role...In these new circumstances, other countries - including Russia, Japan & North Korea - are testing the rules”.

.@CER_Grant argued that “a no-deal Brexit is less inevitable than it looks. Boris Johnson is currently sending signals that the election shouldn’t be held until after Brexit. But this might not be sincere: would he really want to fight an election amidst the chaos of no deal?

Grant continued, Johnson may prefer that MPs force him to delay Brexit, and fight the election while still inside the EU. “That would allow him to blame MPs for the delay, see off the Brexit Party’s threat & position himself as the people’s champion against the Remainer elite”.

.@BaldingsWorld argued that “Asia is the right place for a US 'Green New Deal’”. US-led funding of environmentally friendly projects across the region would significantly curb global emissions while providing a genuine alternative to China’s Belt and Road.

His rationales: (i) Asia “is experiencing much faster economic growth than the US while relying more heavily on coal-fired power” and (ii) “the US has to do more [in the region] than just hope countries refuse shiny new Chinese infrastructure projects”.

Three events to watch in the near-future:

Hong Kong protests: police violence escalated significantly this weekend. Per @nathanlawkc, particularly egregious examples included: shooting rubber bullets at first aiders & reporters; allowing gangsters to attack protestors, and kicking a protestor down an escalator.

@nathanlawkc .@stavridisj argued that if Hong Kong avoids “a bloody replay of Tiananmen Square” it has Taiwan to thank. “Beijing will be wary of overreacting to protests because of the effect that would have on its biggest goal: reunification with the ‘renegade province’ [of Taiwan]”.

He continued: Beijing knows that Taiwan is the bigger prize, and as a result “China will probably avoid a heavy-handed troop movement into Hong Kong for as long as possible, knowing it would create an even stronger independence movement in Taiwan”.

North Korean missile tests: per @NarangVipin, Kim Jong-un is “playing [Trump] masterfully” – with a pattern of missile tests early in the week, then flattery later in the week. “Rinse and repeat. He can run this play indefinitely because it always works”.

And it is bearing fruit. Per Narang, since the Hanoi summit, Kim has tested three brand new missile systems. Further, some systems are moving beyond tests: one missile is “10 for 10” – & these are “straight up launches” designed to demonstrate their capability & train operators.

Fresh Italian elections? Per Stratfor, “the Italian government is hanging by a thread. The collapse of the coalition between the right-wing League party and the anti-establishment Five Star Movement seems imminent” after Salvini asked for an early general election.

Salvini’s rationale appears to be seizing further power. Per Stratfor, “opinion polls suggest that the League stands a good chance of winning [an election, if it does occur] & then forming a coalition with like-minded parties in the center-right and the far right”.

Thanks as always to everyone who has been liking, retweeting and spreading the word! We are continually humbled by the following we are gathering amongst the world’s leading diplomats, journalists, and thinkers.

Have a great week!

The Ambassador’s Brief Editors