Weekly Geopolitical Brief

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Impeachment Hearings: Bill Burns argued that in their testimonies, “Bill Taylor, George Kent, & Masha Yovanovitch demonstrated professionalism, integrity, & plainspoken courage”. They “upheld their oaths to the Constitution” He continued, they’ve reminded us that the real threat to US democracy is not an imagined deep state: it’s a “weak state” of hollowed-out institutions – no longer able to effectively compete internationally, or uphold the fragile guardrails of US democracy.

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30 years since the fall of the Berlin Wall: Andrew Bacevich argued “Three decades into this era of ostensible American primacy, we are in a position to assess what it has yielded. The results, to put it mildly, have been disappointing”. “The era’s defining characteristics [have been] the emergence of China as a great power, Europe’s long fade into geopolitical irrelevance, much of the greater Middle East succumbing to violence and instability, and a too little, too late response to climate change”.

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Phase one trade deal: @BennSteil & @bdellarocca explained China has offered to buy $20b of US agricultural goods in return for Trump killing both his planned tariff hikes and a round of new tariffs on Chinese imports. But it’s not an attractive offer. “The right way to evaluate China’s offer is to ask how much US farmers would have exported to China in 2020 had Trump never started his trade war”. The answer: $27b – “China would have bought over $7b more than what it is now offering”.

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Baghdadi raid: @attackerman argued that ISIS leader Baghdadi is dead, but “the war on Terror will create another…There will be another Baghdadi, and another ISIS, as long as the Forever War keeps going”. He continued, “the expansive war the U.S. launched does not fight against a static enemy. It generates enemies... Its history shows it yielding further generations of jihadists as long as there are American forces hunting, surveilling, and killing Muslims worldwide”.

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Syria: @stephenWalt argued let’s not lose sight of the big picture: US Syria policy has been a "failure for years”. It was “rife with contradictions & unlikely to produce a significantly better outcome no matter how long the US stayed”. He continued: “As depressing as it is…acknowledging Assad’s victory & accepting his authority in Syria is the least bad option at this point”. The reality is (i)Assad has won (ii) Assad will purge ISIS & (iii) Syria is hardly a major strategic prize; the US has other priorities

Weekly Geopolitical Brief

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A trade truce, dressed up as a deal? Trump asserted that the US & China have reached a phase one trade deal. The partial deal purportedly includes China buying more US agricultural goods. But, it hasn’t even been written down. Stratfor argued that “the partial deal doesn't go beyond the low-hanging fruit previously on the negotiating table. With neither side seemingly willing to make any of the hard, structural concessions…this week's deal is likely fragile at best”.

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Ukraine Scandal: @Robert_E_Kelly argued that “Impeachment will stabilise US Foreign Policy. Despite all the bluster, Donald Trump’s effect on foreign affairs has been too shallow to last beyond him”. His reasoning: “Trump is nearly alone in the US foreign policy community in pursuing ‘disruption’”. And, chaos aside, he’s failed to establish “real alternative” policies. So, his removal would “most likely bring a snap-back to previous US liberal internationalist positions”.

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Ukraine scandal: @stephenWalt argued that “the bottom line is now clear…you cannot trust...Trump to place the interests of the nation ahead of his own, or to conduct a foreign policy that would faithfully advance the national interest”. Walt argued that the founding fathers granted the President an extraordinary degree of latitude in foreign policy, because they understood it was necessary for navigating a dangerous world. But granting this latitude “depends on a minimal level of presidential integrity”.

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Ukraine scandal: per the WSJ, “Trump in a July phone call repeatedly pressured the President of Ukraine to investigate Joe Biden’s son…urging Volodymyr Zelensky about eight times to work with Rudy Giuliani on a probe”. .@RadioFreeTom argued that the “most important revelation” of the WSJ story is that Trump “sought the help of a foreign government against an American citizen who might challenge him for his office”. If this is true, Trump “should be impeached & removed from office immediately”.

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Saudi oil plant attacked: Saudi Arabia’s oil production has been temporarily cut in half after an attack on Abqaiq – the world’s biggest crude processing plant. Details are still emerging about the relative roles of the Houthis & Iran. .@ilangoldenberg argued that this attack is a big deal – much more significant than the tanker attacks. He’s “skeptical it was just the Houthis” & “wouldn’t be surprised if there was a direct Iranian hand”. Times like this, it would be nice to be able to trust this admin’s word.

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Chinese foothold in Iran: per @PetroleumEcon, China has agreed to invest $400b in Iran’s petroleum sector & transport infrastructure. And protecting China’s investment will be 5,000 Chinese security personnel. China’s $400b investment is an unfortunate “I told you so” moment for many who have, like @stephenWalt, been arguing that Trump’s “white whale of so-called maximum pressure against Iran…can only push Iran ever closer to Beijing [and Moscow]”.

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On Xi’s orders: Reuters reported that Carrie Lam, the chief executive of HK, said she has caused “unforgivable havoc” & would quit if she had a choice. She has “very limited” room to resolve things as Beijing is calling the shots. But, per Reuters, “Lam suggested that Beijing had not yet reached a turning point. She said Beijing had not imposed any deadline for ending the crisis…And she said China had “absolutely no plan” to deploy People’s Liberation Army troops on Hong Kong streets”.

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G7: @ColinKahl foreshadowed Trump hates it as (i) its substantiveness exposes his shallowness(ii) there are no parades (iii) it’s multilateral & he can’t play with others & (iv) he has to engage with democratic leaders & he likes despots And that’s how it’s played so far: per @ishaantharoor “divisions between Trump and his counterparts…flared in private”. Predictable fault lines have included: climate change, trade wars, Iran, and the possible readmission of Russia to the group.

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An authoritarian toolkit: The WSJ reported that Huawei technicians helped African politicians spy on their political opponents. The assistance included hacking their messages, and tracking their location. Hiroyuki Akita has argued that the injection of China’s Orwellian technologies & values into countries with fragile democracies is likely to push them towards authoritarianism. “It could see countries with immature democratic institutions morph into dictatorships”.

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Surveillance state: the HK protests have shone a spotlight on Chinese extraterritorial monitoring & coercion. In one case, Chinese authorities intimidated a protestor at an Australian university by visiting his parents at home in China. In another, the Chinese Aviation authority demanded that (HK based) Cathay Pacific suspend all staff who have engaged in the protests from flights into Chinese airspace. Many protestors – in HK & abroad – are now hiding their faces, for fear of Chinese facial recognition tech.

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Zarif sanctioned: per the NYT, the Trump admin has taken the “unusual step” of personally sanctioning Iran’s Foreign Minister Zarif. The move “essentially cut[s] off the clearest avenue for talks [and de-escalation] with Iran.” As the move came after Zarif rebuffed an invitation to the White House for talks, @barbaraslavin1 argued it was a product of Trump’s “wounded pride”. Similarly, Stratfor noted the White House is “visibly exasperated that [it] is utterly failing to coerce Iran into negotiations”.

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Russian aggression in Asia: Per CNN, “South Korean fighter jets fired [more than 300] warning shots at a Russian military aircraft Tuesday after it violated the country's airspace”. Chinese aircraft were also present. CNN continued “what triggered the confrontation…is unclear” but one theory is that the Russian mission was to draw out South Korean air defences – giving the Russians valuable intelligence on how the South Koreans respond to threats.

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Another Chinese naval base: Per the WSJ, China signed a secret agreement allowing it to use a Cambodian navy base. Details are unclear, but an early draft had a 30-year term & a large airport is also under construction nearby. The WSJ positioned this as potentially China’s second overseas naval base – after its base in Djibouti, on the Horn of Africa. However, analysts noted that China also has another facility underway in Gwadar, Pakistan: it’s building its capacity to project power.

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EU Elections: the populist surge which many feared didn’t happen, but EU politics continues to fragment. Per the NYT, populists increased their vote share to ~25%, up from ~20%, but high voter turnout helped temper their results. .@CER_Grant argued that “populists have not done well enough to make a big impact on the way the European Parliament [EP] works”. The centre left & centre right parties will expand their coalition, and “managing the EP will be a bit more complicated”.

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Brexit likely postponed: the British Parliament voted to ask the EU to extend the 29 March Brexit deadline. The Parliament also (i) rejected May’s deal again (ii) rejected a no deal Brexit, & (iii) rejected a second referendum. .@A_Sloat argued that there’ll “almost certainly” now be an extension – the question is how long. If May can pass her deal this week, she’ll request a 3-month extension to allow implementation. If she can’t, she’ll likely request a lengthier extension – to reconsider options.

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A new arms race? The Trump Admin suspended its obligations under the INF treaty – a landmark US-Russia arms control agreement, which bans land-based missiles with a 500–5,500km range. Their rationale: ongoing Russian violations. The Russians have been deploying 9M729 missiles, which violate the Cold War era agreement. Washington’s ask is that Russia eliminates the offending 9M729s, and returns to “full and verifiable compliance”, or the US suspension escalates into a full withdrawal in six months.